Unfortunately, I think we’re in for hard times for a lot of deer hunters in MN. Especially in Zone 100.
I want to make it clear that I’m not of the mindset that the peak population level years should be considered “normal” and therefore I’m comparing everything against the peak. I’ve got a little longer of a view on this, having hunted the same 5 square miles for over 30 years now and having hunted 15 years in other places in northern and south west MN.
The reality is that we’ve been hunting a bubble for over 20 years. We’ve had unprecedented numbers of deer in about 2/3 of MN and we have also had exceptionally warm and mild winters for most of this time. Until the last 5 years, the numbers of big predators–namely coyotes and wolves–were also at relatively low numbers and wolves in particular were not even present in any significant numbers in MN until 10 years ago.
What has been forgotten by many, including our own DNR unfortunately, was that an unlucky combination of factors can DRASTICALLY reduce the herd in a single year. Throughout the bubble years, the DNR became fixated on the hunter harvest as the only number that had significant impact. And it was true! For 20+ years anyway.
We’re going to look back on 2013-14 as the point where the bubble burst. A high harvest level, combined with large numbers of antlerless deer harvested, combined with a harsh winter, and with the addition of thousands more wolves has burst the bubble. And in about 3 weeks, we’ll have the evidence because the harvest tally from this season will lay the truth bare for all to see.
It isn’t all doom/gloom. I’ve heard from relatives in SW MN that they are having a good year. The population of deer there crashed about 10 years ago and they have been living under tight regs and with few doe permits for years now. The population has finally rebounded there, but in talking to an uncle from the Marshall area, he said that it was a very slow process and even after 5 years after the population low point, he didn’t see any change. The rebuilding process was very slow in the first 5-7 years and only really became noticeable to him over the last 2-3 years.
I’ll be out there regardless because I love hunting and love the land and being outdoors, but in much of MN I think we’re going to see radical changes in deer hunting over the next 10 years. I’m afraid many hunters who cut their teeth during the bubble years are going to be profoundly unhappy and I’m afraid we’re going to see many stop hunting entirely
Grouse