Wear a mask

Even a 99% specific test will leave you with around about a 30% likelihood of a false positive.

These serology tests have no place in telling individuals whether they’ve had it or not. Their primary use should be for epidemiological studies where the sensitivity, specificity and infection rate are all adjusted for in the results. There simply aren’t enough people infected to get a useful result, especially if it comes back positive.

There are hundreds of these tests out there and some are less than 80% specific leaving you with a absolutely horrible accuracy with a positive result.

I believe at this point a positive test doesn’t give you any assurance of immunity anyway.

I am not really concerned either way. It’s not going to change my life. If I test positive and my wife tests positive, considering our symptoms, I’ll take it as a positive.

biggill wrote:

Even a 99% specific test will leave you with around about a 30% likelihood of a false positive.

Matt, Please explain this math.

Beads prediction….

Racial equality movement has started, won’t stop, and Trump has urined off enough moderates to not get elected again.

Over summer all the suburban white people who voted and lost in November, will also start getting the covid from not giving a crap about masks for 4 months, and with so many people infected naturally the hospitalization rate will have a whole lot of fox news watchers on respirators. Conservative movement dies, literally and figuratively, from being wrong on covid, and against equality that the world is crying for.

Won’t see another republican president for at least 3 terms. Cause c’mon, Americans forget pretty easily. Candice Owens 2032?

Our flag pole got struck by lightning this week. Flag on ground. Been here since a kid, that’s never happened. Heard you guys had a big one in Wisconsin go down. It’s getting weird. 2020 isn’t even half way done yet

I believe they use the Roche test. Not sure though. Going through LabCorp.

Netguy wrote:

Matt, Please explain this math.

Deep breath…

We need to make an assumption. We need to know approximately how many people are actually infected. Best knowledge right now is around 5% of the population.

Serology tests vary greatly in sensitivity and specificity so let’s pick some numbers in the middle of the road like 95% sensitivity and 95% specificity.

Let’s assume 100,000 people get this test. With 5% infection rate that means 5,000 people are truly infected.

95% sensitivity would return 250 false negatives meaning 250 people that don’t actually have the disease would actually test positive.

95% specificity would return literally 5000 false positives. So you’ll have 5000 true positives and 5000 people false positives. That’s a 50/50 ratio of people truly infected vs the number that are truly negative but test positive.

I’m 2 cocktails in tonight so I’ll leave the 99% specificity math up to this website that explains it very well.

I now realize my estimate was off by a factor of about 2x on the 99% specificity so it’s actually around about 16% and not 30%.

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis/spotlight/covid-19-antibody-tests-face-very-specific-problem

mplspug wrote:

I believe they use the Roche test. Not sure though. Going through LabCorp.

Well then, if I remember correctly, this is the only FDA approved yes and the specificity is at 99.7%. Leaves you with a very reliable result.

Lots of people here are getting tests not knowing what any of this means and spending their own money to do so. Not worth it in my opinion.

Personally I’d rather not know right now. If you walk around in public with the assumption you have immunity people will look at you like you’re wearing a KKK hood. Not really the kind of attention I want.

Deuces wrote:

Beads prediction….

Racial equality movement has started, won’t stop, and Trump has urined off enough moderates to not get elected again.

Over summer all the suburban white people who voted and lost in November, will also start getting the covid from not giving a crap about masks for 4 months, and with so many people infected naturally the hospitalization rate will have a whole lot of fox news watchers on respirators. Conservative movement dies, literally and figuratively, from being wrong on covid, and against equality that the world is crying for.

Won’t see another republican president for at least 3 terms. Cause c’mon, Americans forget pretty easily. Candice Owens 2032?

Our flag pole got struck by lightning this week. Flag on ground. Been here since a kid, that’s never happened. Heard you guys had a big one in Wisconsin go down. It’s getting weird. 2020 isn’t even half way done yet

Beads, the Dems couldn’t beat him last time. The offering this time isn’t better then the last, in fact might be worse.

It will take a third party to derail Trump this year.

if he by some miracle gets re elected, the riots will be like no other. nobody will ever forget 2020! he better plan on beefing up his security for his own good. maybe get that blonde to talk for him while he stands in the background just nodding? I could watch her all day!

Attachments:

1. 

   MW-IF679_mcenan_20200501143240_ZQ.jpg
   

Whether he wins or loses there will be riots. Hes done well to divide us all. And if he loses hes laid the groundwork to argue a faulty vote already. He will probably talk about using the military to keep him in power until a recount is done with the Russians serving as overseers to ensure the results are accurate. Trump would never honor the system in america if it voted against him. Hes never honored anyone or anything that disagreed with him to this point why would he start now? Im a few pints into it tonight too. Stay safe out there beads!

1 thing is forsure, it should be an interesting year.

crappie55369 wrote:

Whether he wins or loses there will be riots. Hes done well to divide us all. And if he loses hes laid the groundwork to argue a faulty vote already. He will probably talk about using the military to keep him in power until a recount is done with the Russians serving as overseers to ensure the results are accurate. Trump would never honor the system in america if it voted against him. Hes never honored anyone or anything that disagreed with him to this point why would he start now? Im a few pints into it tonight too. Stay safe out there beads!

The division started with the previous president

While I agree that the 24 hour news, sensationalizing, and bias in the news media is a big problem in this country, I don’t think it is fair to say that only liberal news is guilty of these things. Fox News, breitbart, the federalist etc all do exactly the same thing. They just happen to gore a different ox

What does this have to do with masks?

The division started with the previous president
[/quote]

Honestly not trying to be a smarta$$.
I have heard this claim a few times but have never heard any reasons or further explanation. I am curious what divide he started and how? Again, not trying to be a jerk or anything like that, just heard that exact statement a lot and have never heard anything beyond it

Dusty Gesinger wrote:

I believe there goal was to limit numbers of people in the store, kids touch everything and don’t need to come with to the store at a time like this.

So if you can’t drive there, they don’t want you there? I get that they don’t want “families” shopping at this time but it still seems a little odd if its directly correlated to the mask policy.

Trump is dividing the country…CNN told me. Trumps creating jobs for everyone was bad, not everyone wants to work…duh… MSNBC said so. Trumps a racist… Obama told me. Joe Biden saved all his great ideas for his presidency, he didn’t want Obama to get all the credit for 8 years for his good ideas for the country. Trump created a virus that is like the flu, low death rate and blew it out of proportion to ruin the best economy this generation has ever seen… Trump kneed a black person until they died… then he smashed windows and started fires. Trump won’t wear a mask, MSM is appalled, they all want him dead, but cry he won’t wear a mask ??? Weird. Everybody is accepting the results of the last election… except Trump ???? Bad Trump.

I see we are going to have a mature discussion about this, right on

Getting hard to tell the difference between the news and an add for Biden. Have heard from strong Democrats creepy Joe is less electable than Hill-dah-beast. Sure hope so.

biggill wrote:

What does this have to do with masks?

The media is selling the idea of the need for a mask.. I hate to say it but we look dumb as a country wearing them. expect the folk the have a compromised heath condition, and then they should wear them all the time not just because of the over hyped Wauhan Virus. imho

Billy J wrote:

The media is selling the idea of the need for a mask.. I hate to say it but we look dumb as a country wearing them. expect the folk the have a compromised heath condition, and then they should wear them all the time not just because of the over hpye Wauhan Virus. imho

By the media, do you mean the CDC, WHO, and other health agencies/organizations? Who gives a sh** what they look like. They’re effective at slowing transmission. They don’t eliminate it, but they no doubt help. It doesn’t matter if you have a compromised health condition. Wearing them does not HELP YOU, it helps everyone else. You just can’t figure that out, can you. If you have a health issue, you shouldn’t be out in public at all. Wearing a mask does nothing for the person wearing it. The only mask that helps the wearer is a certified N95 or other respirator which should only be worn by people in the medical field because of PPE shortages.

gimruis wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Dusty Gesinger wrote:</div>
I believe there goal was to limit numbers of people in the store, kids touch everything and don’t need to come with to the store at a time like this.

So if you can’t drive there, they don’t want you there? I get that they don’t want “families” shopping at this time but it still seems a little odd if its directly correlated to the mask policy.

Had nothing to do with the mask policy. Keeping people under 16 out was in place well before mask policy. Simply to limit numbers of people in the store.

basseyes wrote:

Getting hard to tell the difference between the news and an add for Biden. Have heard from strong Democrats creepy Joe is less electable than Hill-dah-beast. Sure hope so.

I am just sad that we are down to a battle between two old men who both have issues with being creepy:

“If she wasn’t my daughter I’d probably be dating her”
“When you’re a star they let you do it, grab em by the p****”

Attachments:

1. 

   F7089F2C-B73E-4470-A601-43F1D8058CF8.png
   

The riots are tied to the Democrats who refuse to condemn them and refuse to take action to stop them. Gun sales have been robust since the covid and will continue the next couple years due to riots. I’m guessing gun rights are something the democrats will want to talk about this election cycle but I’m sure Trump will with the millions of first time gun buyers

People are fuming over the continued lockdown when thousands can gather to riot and attend memorials but Joe and Martha can’t go to their local church to worship. Regardless of what you would like to believe this isn’t just conservatives who feel this way or just conservatives not wearing mask. To say things like Fox news viewers are going to be on ventilators and dying is absurd as is the covid is literally going to kill conservatives and the movement. It was embarrassing to even read that.

Many of these democratic governors are handing their states to Trump in the election. The Democrats have not one thing to offer besides hating Trump. They foolishly think everyone hates him the same as they do. They live in that echo chamber.

Trump easily wins the black vote. If you think the majority of black people are buying into these riots as some sort of path to racial equality and that is their voice you are wrong. People want to feel safe again have their economy back and be able to go back to work and go to their favorite place for a burger and a beer. The Democrats don’t care about any of that. All they can focus on is hate for Trump. Destroy Trump at any cost and at the expense of anyone. The Democrats can easily identify who and what they hate. Trump, people who watch Fox News and anyone who disagrees with their ideology. To them that’s all there is.

No discussion or conversation can be brought into it. How are those types of people going to bring about equality of anything? Unless of course to them equality is thinking the same as they do and if you don’t you will die from the covid.

Can someone define racial equality and how we specifically can accomplish that? Who are the arbiters of equality? Who is denying it from whom and for what reason? It’s not as simple as one white cop kneeling on a black mans neck and killing him.

I’m sure no one here is responsible for the inequality in race. I’m sure everyone would happily announce how many black or Jewish or Muslim friends they have so they can’t possibly be racist. And you know what that very well may be true. So maybe this isn’t as systemic as we are told and so easily believe.

Nobody is forced to wear a mask. It’s all personal choice. I never wear one at home. Never wear one in the truck. If the store requires one I don’t go there. If the business requires one I don’t go there. Since this whole thing started I’ve worn a mask exactly one time…….yesterday they gave me one when I got my hair cut. Again, I could have declined and walked out.

Personal choice.

I should add, it you enter a place that people wear masks you can politely ask if they require one. Some places encourage their employees to wear them but don’t require customers to. It’s respect for the employee that you should ask. Respect……we all know what that is right?

gimruis wrote:

They don’t eliminate it, but they no doubt help. It doesn’t matter if you have a compromised health condition. Wearing them does not HELP YOU, it helps everyone else. You just can’t figure that out, can you.

I recommend listening to the podcast or reading the transcript I posted.

Dutchboy wrote:

Nobody is forced to wear a mask. It’s all personal choice. I never wear one at home. Never wear one in the truck. If the store requires one I don’t go there. If the business requires one I don’t go there. Since this whole thing started I’ve worn a mask exactly one time…….yesterday they gave me one when I got my hair cut. Again, I could have declined and walked out.

Personal choice.

That’s where you’re dead wrong. Policies are being created that rely on their effectiveness in order to reduce physical distancing measures. If we use this as justification to reduce these measures when this thing starts spreading like wildfire, we’re going to have a catastrophe on our hands.

Well Matt I hope you are wrong. But I’m not smart enough to know for sure. What I do know is getting 330 million people (or whatever the population of the country is) to all do the same thing at the same time will be like herding cats.

Like I said, if masks are required i’ll just sit it out at home and only go out to buy food. If that happens enough the economy & country will crash and the masks will be worthless anyway.

Wow this really got derailed. Matt I listened to the podcast although I drank coffee. A lot of good and interesting information in there. I do wonder ever time Osterholm says ‘that’s unfortunate’ what he really thinks.

Well I think I will stop wearing a mask until there is better studies or available masks that it helps protect others from me. I do still wonder a bit about doing it like he says he does to make others feel comfortable around him, but for now I will pass.

But then I read this again and go hmmm, but even this points out improper fitting makes it pretty ineffective.
Aerosol Filtration