Wear a mask

I saw WHO is changing their stance on masks again. I don’t know what the change is, I am waiting for the story on TV. But they have sent a lot of mixed messages. I think their stance all along has been masks only for those treating COVID patients? I don’t even know anymore.

I did a search filtering to the last 24 hours and now I see a bunch of stories about masks helping stop the spread at home. I find that laughable. I’d say the chances of you infecting your family in quarantine at home is close to 100%. The articles talk about wearing the mask before symptoms reducing the spread by 70%. So I suppose if you wear the mask at home and are pulled out when you get the symptoms and test positive and isolate elsewhere, it’s effective in stopping the spread in he house.

So, will people start wearing the masks at home now?

I would imagine the WHO is looking very closely at the Czech Republic when it comes to the whole mask debate. Closest thing to a large scale outcomes based result we could possibly have this early with a new virus. If there is a new recommendation coming it will probably be based on their results

My guess would be that they will recommend widespread use of the masks because the studies showing particles being caught in a cloth mask suggest that it will trap small particles. The problem is the studies don’t account for the fact the majority of your breath will go around the mask especially once the mask has become damp. Surgical masks are the worst because essentially all of your breath goes around the mask.

This is what I was referencing
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/25/czech-republic-face-mask-coronavirus-restrictions-pubs-restaurants-hotels

It should be noted though that all the locations that impose mask rules also have the most restrictive measures across the board. They also tend to act much sooner to impose restrictive measures.

If they truly believed the masks to be effective, the mask requirements would stay in place. Masks are probably the least restrictive measures which has no impact on the economy. Doesn’t make sense to me.

If there is not a vaccine a year from now, I am interested in seeing how countries like South Korea, New Zealand and Czech fair compared to other countries.

mplspug wrote:

If there is not a vaccine a year from now, I am interested in seeing how countries like South Korea, New Zealand and Czech fair compared to other countries.

I assume you are eluding to herd immunity? There’s so much still not known about this virus. Immunity could last a few months to a few years. We don’t know. If it lasts a few months, it’s just going to burn on forever. It would be difficult for a vaccine to stope it in its tracks if that a the case and GERD immunity wouldn’t work at all. If it lasts a couple years, we could see reoccurring waves every 5 years or so.

Bottom line is that this thing is here to stay in some shape or form.

Dr. Michael Osterholm has been saying that it has only reached about 5% of the population and you can see what it’s already done. We’re at about the 5 minute mark of the first period. There’s a whole lotta game left to play.

biggill wrote:

It should be noted though that all the locations that impose mask rules also have the most restrictive measures across the board. They also tend to act much sooner to impose restrictive measures.

If they truly believed the masks to be effective, the mask requirements would stay in place. Masks are probably the least restrictive measures which has no impact on the economy. Doesn’t make sense to me.

Yup, that is true. They are easing the masks as a late-phase of reopening though, which sounds like a good place to be right now.
As far as how those countries are doing in a year with no vaccine, it will be interesting for sure. Doesn’t sound like anybody is going to be anywhere close to herd immunity so who knows

biggill wrote:

@curtis73
I thought I’d share a new publication by CIDRAP on a new study about COVID and the importance aerosols play in the spread.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/05/indoor-spread-covid-19-can-be-lessened-experts-say

They talk about ventilation and filtering but make no mention of masks. It’s not necessarily a case against masks but it highlights what they believe to be the most effective measures to prevent the spread.

Thanks. I’ve added CIDRAP to my favorites. A lot of stuff to read…not that I will understand much of it

It’s a good place to get good information regarding this virus. They are only going to post peer reviewed studies and verifiable news. They avoid all the anecdotal crap that the rest of the media thrives on.

I highly recommend listening to Dr. Osterholm’s podcasts. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars

biggill wrote:

It’s a good place to get good information regarding this virus. They are only going to post peer reviewed studies and verifiable news. They avoid all the anecdotal crap that the rest of the media thrives on.

I highly recommend listening to Dr. Osterholm’s podcasts. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars

Good share. The only Osterholm podcast I’ve seen was from the Joe Rogan Experience, and it was excellent. The doctor seems very impartial, just relaying facts and evidence-based research to the public. It’s a shame to see authoritative voices like that so easily drown out by the Internet trolls.

I guess I am talking about herd immunity. If you are too aggressive in trying to slow it down, will they leave those countries being lauded as successes now go through more frequent and worse flare ups down the road

biggill wrote:

It’s a good place to get good information regarding this virus. They are only going to post peer reviewed studies and verifiable news. They avoid all the anecdotal crap that the rest of the media thrives on.

I highly recommend listening to Dr. Osterholm’s podcasts. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars

Alas, I cannot sit through a 45 minute podcast about fishing, no chance I’m listening to that. Everyone take notes for me.

Bass Thumb wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Matt Wodziak wrote:</div>
It’s a good place to get good information regarding this virus. They are only going to post peer reviewed studies and verifiable news. They avoid all the anecdotal crap that the rest of the media thrives on.

I highly recommend listening to Dr. Osterholm’s podcasts. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars

Good share. The only Osterholm podcast I’ve seen was from the Joe Rogan Experience, and it was excellent. The doctor seems very impartial, just relaying facts and evidence-based research to the public. It’s a shame to see authoritative voices like that so easily drown out by the Internet trolls.

Dr. Osterholm has been pretty pragmatic since that podcast, and I trust most of his opinions, but he also predicted CONSERVATIVELY there would be 480k deaths in the US on that podcast, and significantly higher #’s when he was on with Barreiro/KFAN. So his modeling was severely flawed, but otherwise he seems pretty level headed and honest.

5% of the us population has been infected and there’s been 100k deaths. Considering it’ll take 60-70% of the population to get infected before we see immunity, that 480k seems to be right on the mark.

This is obviously only one of the possible scenarios of how this will play out but the fact that we’ve seen 100k deaths in only the first 4 months of this 12-24 month pandemic, I’m not confident that his numbers were underestimated at all.

Matt, where is the 5% infected stat coming from? Genuinely curious.

blank wrote:

Matt, where is the 5% infected stat coming from? Genuinely curious.

The 5% is a very liberal estimate on my part considering that it’s also generally accepted that New York is in the 15-18% range. At least according to dr. Osterholm.

It was determined that Indiana was around 2.8%. https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/05/iupui/releases/13-preliminary-findings-impact-covid-19-indiana-coronavirus.html

Thanks. That was interesting. I’m wondering if that random testing idea was part of the motive to have the free testing at various armories around MN last weekend.

It’s possible, but anytime you have voluntary testing like that there’s going to be a tendency to have mostly people who suspect they had the disease skewing the results. I do believe that this study accounted for that which is why we really need to be careful what we read in the news. A lot of news outlets like to post and crappy non-peer reviewed study that has shock value. Especially the one out of California that suggested infection rates were 100 times higher than confirmed cases. Well it turns out people who think they were sick were far more likely to volunteer for the test and they never adjusted for this factor.

People will drive across town and stand in lines for free hot dogs at car dealerships, so I don’t doubt that there were plenty of people last weekend who were getting tested just to say they got tested and weren’t symptomatic. In the video I thought it was interesting that only 45% of the those people were asymptomatic. It would have been interesting to know more about that piece.

biggill wrote:

5% of the us population has been infected and there’s been 100k deaths. Considering it’ll take 60-70% of the population to get infected before we see immunity, that 480k seems to be right on the mark.

This is obviously only one of the possible scenarios of how this will play out but the fact that we’ve seen 100k deaths in only the first 4 months of this 12-24 month pandemic, I’m not confident that his numbers were underestimated at all.

You realize of course the books have been cooked on the numbers of deaths? So extrapolating those numbers only extrapolates a false number.

big_g wrote:

I guess if the New England Journal of Medicine says wearing the cloth masks in public is mostly symbolic, I am not going to join the pony parade. May 21, 2020

I am not going to join the pony parade x2 to that Big G

I kind of like it. I get to wear a gaiter with a hoodie on while I shop at the local Target. It does nothing really since I don’t talk but the looks on some of the kids I get is priceless. I think I sent a 5 year old kid crying today? If they ask me to where a mask, I will where a mask. thinking the micheal myers one is next on my list!

biggill wrote:

5% of the us population has been infected and there’s been 100k deaths. Considering it’ll take 60-70% of the population to get infected before we see immunity, that 480k seems to be right on the mark.

This is obviously only one of the possible scenarios of how this will play out but the fact that we’ve seen 100k deaths in only the first 4 months of this 12-24 month pandemic, I’m not confident that his numbers were underestimated at all.

That is the one of the most frustrating parts of this whole deal, is the data is all over the place and one organization will say one thing, then present data that directly contradicts it.

“The exercise of fitting the MN COVID-19 model to deaths in the state resulted in an estimated case detection rate of 1 percent (version 2.0). That means that, for the early part of the epidemic, we assume the actual number of infections is about 100 times the number of detected infections.”

https://mn.gov/covid19/assets/MNmodel_FAQ_5.13.20_tcm1148-431821.pdf

I’m not exactly sure what that statement is supposed to mean. Are they admitting that the data in v2 was flawed?

I think that 100 times cases has been disproven many times. The studies that suggested this some serious flaws. The ones that tested for antibodies, I believe in California, was heavily influenced by those that either had some symptoms or those who had know contact with infected people. These people were far more likely to volunteer for a test therefore they didn’t have a true random sample of people in the general population. Not only that they published results not accounting for sensitivity and specificity. The specificity allowed for nearly a 50/50 accuracy with a positive result. Not only that it was not peer reviewed. The media took it and ran with it.

Another study on a naval ship tested all inhabitants of the ship and determined that 80 of the infected people were asymptomatic. A good study with good results but it doesn’t represent the general population. The people on the ship hade a far younger age than the general population and were far healthier.

The experts are saying we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg so far. I keep an eye on the case and death numbers almost daily and it seems they are leveling off in our part of the country in spite of the loosened restrictions. This is normal and has nothing to do with restrictions or lack there of. Dr. Osterholm has been saying this would happen for months. It’s actually one of his biggest fears because we are all going to let our guard down right before it comes back.

forgive my ignorance but who is this Dr. Osterholm and why should i be paying attention to what he says? Im asking legitimately not trying to be a smartass. ive never heard of him outside of this post

crappie55369 wrote:

forgive my ignorance but who is this Dr. Osterholm and why should i be paying attention to what he says? Im asking legitimately not trying to be a smartass. ive never heard of him outside of this post

He’s director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the U of M that was on a Joe Rogan Podcast among many other media, he’s very well regarded in this field (infectious diseases) and one of the main resources Gov Walz is leaning on for information. Here’s his full bio:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/about-us/cidrap-staff/michael-t-osterholm-phd-mph

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/about-us/cidrap-staff/michael-t-osterholm-phd-mph

I’m not even going to attempt to summarize. It’s best if you just read.

I’d also recommend hopping on YouTube to watch some of his presentations. He’s got a lot of information about CWD as well. Pretty scary stuff.

BigWerm wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>crappie55369 wrote:</div>
forgive my ignorance but who is this Dr. Osterholm and why should i be paying attention to what he says? Im asking legitimately not trying to be a smartass. ive never heard of him outside of this post

He’s director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the U of M that was on a Joe Rogan Podcast among many other media, he’s very well regarded in this field (infectious diseases) and one of the main resources Gov Walz is leaning on for information. Here’s his full bio:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/about-us/cidrap-staff/michael-t-osterholm-phd-mph

Thanks BigWerm

Osterholm is a very interesting read/listen. One of the things he said several months ago that has stuck with me is that people don’t grasp the gap from decision to data. People dying today were exposed up to five weeks ago so people look at death numbers 2 weeks after something reopens and say, meh hasn’t gone up, we’re fine. He also talked about how hard and complicated that makes the whole thing, pretty fascinating