here is how it works out with my 2300 lb wheelhouse. If on its wheels then thats about 32 square inches supporting 2000 lbs with 300 lbs going to tongue weight, this yields 62 psi exerted on the ice, not including tongue weight. If I install skis and toe shoe that spreads it out to 2376 square inches and exerts 1.6 psi…quite a decrease. Now, If its glare ice I can skid my house where I’m only stressing the ice .16 psi. Again, a 200 lb guy is putting down about 1.66 psi just standing there.
My criteria is not just thickness of ice, but quality of ice. Precipitation and or melt affecting current flow under the ice, and angle of the sun, it seems there comes a time when the angle is acute enough where no matter the temp, those rays just start honeycombing the ice. When that starts I sit on my hands and wait for the boat launches to open where I fish, primarily the Wisconsin River and it’s flowages.