Thanks for the question about year classes. First off I want to apologize for whatever happened to those figures when converting to pdf attached are jpegs of how they are supposed to look. That may make you less surprised by the results.
That being said water levels are one of the strong drivers for year class on Pool 4 with both Walleye and Sauger benefitting from a timely (typically mid April) flood pulse.
One of the differences is that walleye seem to do better when the high water is extended. This is likely due to their preferred spawning areas (at least in Pool 4) consisting of terrestrial vegetation that is inundated by floodwater. The longer that water stays around the more developed the fry can get in that relatively low flow area with ample food and cover from predators.
Sauger on the other hand seem to prefer channel borders. This means they can likely more consistently get good reproduction as floodwaters aren’t necessary to access their spawning area (but if high waters don’t occur they have to share this area with the Walleye), but fry hatched in the channel are potentially susceptible to being washed away in high flow conditions so previous studies indicate that a rapid drop in water levels post spawn benefits Sauger production.
Now that we have those basics for Pool 4 covered we can see that extremely high water levels in 2018 and 2019 definitely favored walleye. The hydrographs were not as good for Walleye in 2020 and 2021, but remember fish grow and mature fast in Pool 4 so many of those fish from 2018 will be spawning in 2020 and 2021. To many spawners can suppress production of a good year class (indeed we have some evidence of that in Pool 4), but my initial take is there were just more Walleyes out there in 2020 and 2021 that lead to better numbers.
The rapid drop in water levels is pretty apparent in the 2020 hydrograph (makes sense the Sauger spawn was good) and similarly the higher and more extended flood peak 2019 was bad for the Sauger year class. The hydrograph in 2018 had a double peak, though the drop is later than I would have thought would benefit Sauger production. I will follow up this post with some marked hydrographs to illustrate my points.
Attachments:
Sauger-Year-Class-Strength-Pepin.jpg
Walleye-Year-Class-Strength-Pepin.jpg