Vikings 2024 NFL Draft Post

I’m an NFL draft nut…The Vikings are the talk of this year’s draft as they have positioned themselves (with 2 first round picks #11 & #23) to possibly move way up and select a POTENTIAL franchise QB…

BUT

There’s ALOT of drama/questions around this idea…
1) How much will it cost them to move into the Top3? 3 x 1st round picks + more?
2) at what point is the price too high to move into the Top3? How much of our future do we spend on 1 pick?
3) What if another team pays more and they miss out on the top 3 QBs? Is it really out of our control?
4) What if a guy they want (JJ McCarthy) WOULD slip to the 11th pick and we wouldn’t need to move up at all? Do you gamble?
5) What if the Vikings can’t get into the Top4 and Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy go 1-4? Then what do the Vikings do?
6) If they can’t get one of the top QBs, do then Punt the idea until next years draft (where a full a season with Sam Darnold at QB could equal enough losses for a top 3 pick)

Like I said, lots of drama…but also quite fascinating when you look at all the variables involved and then factoring in the track record of rookie QB’s actually panning out! (So could all of this be a huge waste if they pick wrong)

Would love to hear other Vikings fan takes on the 1st round decision making…

4 QBs wont go in the top 4. Harrison will get picked up by someone unless there are trades with teams in the top 4 for a QB needy team. McCarthy at 11 makes sense for the Vikings and I still contend higher than that is a reach for him. It makes sense for the Vikings to draft up to get Maye IMO but not McCarthy.
You see the new kickoff rule changes? Looks interesting.

I think if they can get into the Top3 for our #11 + #23 + #129 + 2025 3rd rounder I would be fine with that spend…This gives you either Maye or Daniels (I’d prefer Maye)

If they can’t get into the Top3, I think Arizona is set at taking Harrison at #4 so then I think the Chargers would take #11 & #23 for #5 and the Vikings should take JJ McCarthy

If those scenarios don’t play out, then I would take the best player available at #11 and then see if Penix or Nix fall to #23 so you get the 5th year option if they pan out as our future starting QB…Maybe give up a 2024 4th or 2025 3rd round pick moving up a few picks from #23 if you think another team is gonna jump up to grab Nix or Penix…

I don’t like the idea of giving up next years 1st round pick in ANY scenario, with Sam Darnold as our QB next year the odds are good we’ll have a high 1st rounder next season (look at the Carolina disaster)

CaptainMusky wrote:

4 QBs wont go in the top 4. Harrison will get picked up by someone unless there are trades with teams in the top 4 for a QB needy team. McCarthy at 11 makes sense for the Vikings and I still contend higher than that is a reach for him. It makes sense for the Vikings to draft up to get Maye IMO but not McCarthy.
You see the new kickoff rule changes? Looks interesting.

I think the Broncos could absolutely trade for #4 and steal McCarthy from the Vikings…There are alot of 1B receivers in this draft, if the Cardinals get alot in return, I think they could move off #4…Cardinals also have the #27 first round pick, so if they traded out of #4 (and getting 1-2 future 1st round picks), they could move way back up packaging their #27 pick with whatever 2024 1st rounder they get trading out of #4 if they wanted to

I’m not a Vikings fan but love following the draft.

IF I was a Vikings fan, I would not want them to give up the capital to get into the Top 3. All 3 of those teams could use a QB, so it’s not likely they’d trade down unless they get an offer that’s overwhelming. I think they’re looking at their current 2 first round picks plus next years to move into the Top 3.

I’d probably take JJ at 11 IF he is there. If he is not there, I’d go with the best player available at a position of need. When 23 comes around I’m confident that they would have Nix or Penix still available if they really want to get a QB this year. If their evaluations on those 2 don’t predict a fit or value there, then again go best player available at a position of need.

In the end, it is all still an educated guess at best. Of the top 5 QBs in this draft (Williams, Maye, Daniels, Penix, and Nix)…the odds of more than two of them being long-term NFL starters are considerably low, and most of that is tied just as much to the situation they are put in as their talent. The Vikings could definitely use the cap relief of having a starting QB on a rookie contract for a couple years though.

You can’t hit on a young QB without rolling the dice, but when you miss and give up assets it really sets a franchise back.

The only thing I’m confident in is the Vikings will somehow take a swing and miss by a mile.

I have no faith in Kwesi. Zero.

I hope I’m wrong or it’s gonna be a rough couple years for Viking fans…

When is the draft?

I’m of the opinion they should do whatever KOC wants. If he wants to move the world for #2 or #3 and get Maye or Daniels, go for it. If he likes JJ or Penix, or Nix at a lesser cost, do that. History tells us only a couple of these guys, max, will pan out, so make sure you get the one your QB whisperer HC wants.

Personally I think JJ’s hype is all media manipulation at this point and he ends up slipping a bit, not that he won’t be good, but usually the guys everyone are talking about are not the guys everyone wants. And on the flip side you don’t hear a ton about Daniels, so I bet he goes #2. And other than the Michigan game, I really like Penix too.

haleysgold wrote:

The only thing I’m confident in is the Vikings will somehow take a swing and miss by a mile.

I have no faith in Kwesi. Zero.

I hope I’m wrong or it’s gonna be a rough couple years for Viking fans…

I have my Kwesi doubts as well, but he finally did a good job getting #23 imo.. I take some comfort knowing any QB decision they make will likely be made from Coach O’Connell and he’s widely regarded as a great QB utilizer (getting the most out of his QBs and putting them in positions to succeed)

lindyrig79 wrote:

When is the draft?

April 25th

When was the last time giving up the house to move up to get a qb actually worked?

I say the keep the picks and draft best available at that pick.

Justin riegel wrote:

When was the last time giving up the house to move up to get a qb actually worked?

I say the keep the picks and draft best available at that pick.

I’d be ok with this too.

I do think Jim Harbaugh would love to draft JJ.
That leaves them with Hebert on the roster.
I’d love to see him traded to the Vikings for a decent price, maybe the 23rd pick but keep #11?. Not sure we can afford his contract though.

Justin riegel wrote:

When was the last time giving up the house to move up to get a qb actually worked?

Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Not a lot of good names on this list, Vick, Cutler, Flacco and RG3 would be some other moderate successes, but all dependent on what you consider giving up the house.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/story/_/id/31173355/all-29-s-nfl-teams-traded-draft-quarterback

for the record, as a fall back plan, I love Penix, putting him in KOC’s pass heavy system with JJ, TJ and Addison could be a recipe for great success, i’m just worried about his injury history…Multiple Shoulder and Knee surgeries doesn’t sound great for a QB you want to build around long term…

^RG3 and the terms “moderate success” should not be used together.

He missed 11 games in 3 seasons with Washington.

He finished with a 14-22 record in games he started.

He was a bust. He did flash early, but ultimately injuries plus teams quickly figuring out his game led to him going down as a bust when you look at the body of work and his tenure in Washington.

JoeMX1825 wrote:

Coach O’Connell and he’s widely regarded as a great QB evaluator…

Based on what?

Of the 29 times teams have moved up for QBs (giving up various amounts of assets) from the link Werm shared, I came up with about 7 “hits”…a couple that were generally not terrible and servicable moves…and about 20 that hurt the franchises more than they ever helped them.

To repeat, I’d personally not want the Vikings to give up what it will take to pry away a Top 3 pick. I also don’t think JJ is worth moving up for. Yes at 11, no at giving up even more for him.

Penix could be a guy at 23 who when stuck into KOC’s system with weapons has a nice start to his career. Bo Nix doesn’t move the needle much for me.

TillrLife wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>JoeMX1825 wrote:</div>

Coach O’Connell and he’s widely regarded as a great QB evaluator…

Based on what?

evaluator was the wrong word, I meant “utilizer” in his offense? He knows what his QB’s are good at and exploits it vs trying to turn them into something they aren’t…

buckybadger wrote:

^RG3 and the terms “moderate success” should not be used together.

4k+ total yards, 27 TD’s and 5 int’s with a ROY and Pro Bowl in year one and close to duplicating those numbers in year 2 before getting injured is moderate success imo. Then the WTF’s rushed him back from a major knee injury and he was never the same.

haleysgold wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Justin riegel wrote:</div>
When was the last time giving up the house to move up to get a qb actually worked?

I say the keep the picks and draft best available at that pick.

I’d be ok with this too.

I do think Jim Harbaugh would love to draft JJ.
That leaves them with Hebert on the roster.
I’d love to see him traded to the Vikings for a decent price, maybe the 23rd pick but keep #11?. Not sure we can afford his contract though.

Herbert is on a (if I recall correctly) $250m contract…..cupboards are too bare IMO to take on a contract like that right now. One thing folks forget is that Spielman left this team in cap/dead-money hell. Too many years of hanging onto vets past their prime and signing guys to guaranteed contracts/pushing money back, and a lot of what Kwesi has done so far is dig us out of that. Has he drafted well? Not really, but we’re slated to have something like $95m in cap space next year (before any extensions).

If KOC feels that one of those QBs in that 2-5 range are our next franchise guy, then I’m all for going to get him. I don’t really want to give up 3x first rounders though, so if its this years 1st rounders and maybe a second or 3rd from next year I’d be ok with that.

If they hit on our next franchise guy, then absolutely nobody will care what we gave up to get him.

Otherwise if there is a major run on QBs early or if asking prices to move up are insane, then I’d like to see us go best DL available at 11 and then take whichever of Nix/Pennix you feel best about at 23.

JoeMX1825 wrote:

Coach O’Connell and he’s widely regarded as a great QB evaluator…

Based on what?

evaluator was the wrong word, I meant “utilizer” in his offense? He knows what his QB’s are good at and exploits it vs trying to turn them into something they aren’t…

Got ya. I can see that. I thought you meant he’s been known to pick talent, say in a draft, turn them into the next franchise QB.

haleysgold wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Justin riegel wrote:</div>
When was the last time giving up the house to move up to get a qb actually worked?

I say the keep the picks and draft best available at that pick.

I’d be ok with this too.

I do think Jim Harbaugh would love to draft JJ.
That leaves them with Hebert on the roster.
I’d love to see him traded to the Vikings for a decent price, maybe the 23rd pick but keep #11?. Not sure we can afford his contract though.

Keep dreaming. I think every team except a handful would love to trade a 20 something pick for Herbert.

BigWerm wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>buckybadger wrote:</div>
^RG3 and the terms “moderate success” should not be used together.

4k+ total yards, 27 TD’s and 5 int’s with a ROY and Pro Bowl in year one and close to duplicating those numbers in year 2 before getting injured is moderate success imo. Then the WTF’s rushed him back from a major knee injury and he was never the same.

Pro Bowl selections are noteworthy, but far from career defining. He finished 22nd in the league for passing yards, 19th for Passing TDs…and this was his best year of an extremely short career. Other not so noteable QBs to make one Pro Bowl in the last 20 years = Elvis Grbac, Kordell Stewart, Derek Anderson, Teddy Bridgewater

When considering drafting players and trading assets to get them, one year isn’t the goal or measure that defines the draft selection in my book. If the Redskins could go back and do that all over again there’s no way they’d have traded up for him in hindsight.

I will agree that RG3 is far from the biggest bust of all time, but them trading picks to get him ultimately hurt their franchise far more than it helped them in the long run.

waldo9190 wrote:

If KOC feels that one of those QBs in that 2-5 range are our next franchise guy, then I’m all for going to get him.

This is where I’m at. Almost every scenario is in play. Having one of the top 4 available at 11 is possible but if there’s 1-2 that KOC likes I think they’ve gotta try and move up to get him. If they come away from all these evaluations with a guy they think will work out well for them, then they’ve gotta go with that. You can sit at 11 and map out who you think picks 4-10 will take, but teams like Las Vegas and Denver behind the Vikes make that awful risky. If you rest on your idea that you’ll get one at 11 and then one of those two moves up to get a QB, the plan you were trying to execute is all torn up.

The Strib had a good article from Ben Goessling I believe about KOC’s process during these visits, how they’ll review college film with the guy, then run through some Vikings offense and immediately go out onto the field and have him put it into play. From there KOC can look directly at the footwork, eye positioning, reads, etc. of what he expects that guy to do in his offense and see what he thinks. So I say if those evaluations result in a guy they’re pretty confident in they go for it. I also really really hope they can do it with picks 11 and 23 but we’ll see. If what they do hits then they’re set for awhile, if it doesn’t, then they’ll be no different than pretty much every other franchise that’s tried, as success in drafting 1st-round QB’s isn’t much of a sure thing.

I would prefer they just keep the 11, and 23 pick. Take the best player available at each pick. I’m not a real big JJ Mccarthy fan. I guess if he slides to us at the 11th pick I would not be totally upset in they picked him. If they were to package the 11Th and 23rd picks to move up, the only player I think it would be worth it was for Jayden Daniels. I just think Daniels is far more NFL ready now than JJ is. The vikings just have so many needs right now that I don’t think one draft pick will make all that much difference this next year. I’d rather they use the picks to get as much help at possible, Take their lumps for a year and reach for a Big time top draft pick next year.

The options make things very interesting. Prospect scouting isn’t my thing. I did watch a scouting report on Maye, which had Pro’s and Con’s. It is all just one big gamble with too many unknowable just like Fantasy Fishing. I just hope the experts get it right, can’t wait to see what transpires.

the biggest difference I see is that whatever QB that the Vikings get (if they get one) will be walking into the perfect scenario for success in terms of weapons at his disposal with JJ, Addison, Hockinson and Jones vs any other QB taken in this draft…

JoeMX1825 wrote:

the biggest difference I see is that whatever QB that the Vikings get (if they get one) will be walking into the perfect scenario for success in terms of weapons at his disposal with JJ, Addison, Hockinson and Jones vs any other QB taken in this draft…

This is also a good reason why Darnold has the best chance of his career here to make a name for himself, even if he is only the bridge option.

waldo9190 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>JoeMX1825 wrote:</div>
the biggest difference I see is that whatever QB that the Vikings get (if they get one) will be walking into the perfect scenario for success in terms of weapons at his disposal with JJ, Addison, Hockinson and Jones vs any other QB taken in this draft…

This is also a good reason why Darnold has the best chance of his career here to make a name for himself, even if he is only the bridge option.

indeed

I think Darnold has as much of a chance of success here in Minnesota as any of the college QB’s out there. Like others said, either one is stepping into a rather good situation. That’s why I prefer they take a shot with Darnold this season and use the picks to make the O-line and Def. backfield better. If Darnold doesn’t work out well they are likely to have a horrible season and will possibly get a high enough draft pick next year to get a top QB