Unofficial-Official River Guess the Highest Stage Thread

Pailofperch wrote:

I know nothing about this!

When it comes right down to it, none of us do.

FYI- The original posting has been updated.

A thread for guessing the highest stage of the river using the gauge of your choice ending the contest on May 1st. If you’re a pro, you can add the week (or date) it will crest.
One entry only per person. First entry is the only one we’ll use.

The lucky winner that’s the closest to the official gauge without going over using the closest date as a tiebreaker, will get an “atta boy” AND
Randy will donate 1/2 dozen blade baits of his choice. (Updated 3/13)

And there’s MORE!

Denny will toss in 1/2 dozen crankbaits to the lucky winner! (Updated 3/14)

And there’s STILL MORE!

1/2 dozen hand tied “Mille Lacs Killer Snells from Dennis! (Updated 3/14)

AND THERE’S STILL MORE!

One new IDO Hoodie (size to be determined) from IDO to be used for a get together that didn’t happen. Thanks Eelpout Guy!

So to get started and please try to use this format…

Red Wing Gauge, 16.3′ Date: 4/8/19 (for extra points)

(Edited to include valuable prizes)

Does anybody know if/when the probability data is updated on the NOAA site for each of the gauges? I’m showing the Red Wing, Lake City, and Wabasha “based on conditions of 3/4/2019”

Todays reading and forecast at Red Wing.

At 16.2′ or whatever I said, it appears I’m going to be on the low side as well Dennis!

This week of freeze/thaw is really helping.

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riverruns wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>chuck100 wrote:</div>
Which crest?The first one coming up or the second one later this spring

Before I guess here, that is a good question. There are usually multiple crests on the river. I see this cresting more than once as usual in the spring.

Maybe the August crest will be higher.

There I made it complicated.

Spring flood crest is 662.52 Winona dam 5A. April 17th 2019.

That would make it the second highest crest here.

This is my official guess. I think some people will be eliminated soon.

Forecast is 16.2 for this Saturday without a crest.

Folks are working on the boat houses to make sure they don’t float away.
The Harbor Bar is cleaning up the tables eat on his property as the water will be flowing into his parking lot sometime at the end of the week.
The Woodshed is filling up a trailer expecting the water to rise into his building by the end of the week.

The back channel ramp will be closed sometime this week.

WI DOT is talking about closing 63, not sure when though.

Is it June yet?

Wabasha is projected to be at 15.3′ this weekend and rising. My guess of 16.2′ is not going to be enough it’s looking like. Every inch is going to matter to a few thousand people from Lake City to Wabasha. The difference between 16′ and 18′ is significant. At 16′ infrastructure damage becomes a concern and some homes are going to be flooded. At 18′ infrastructure damage is almost a guarantee with a couple hundred homes flooded substantially. 20′ would resort in the National Guard being called on and devastation most have never been alive to see from Lake City southward.

Historic Water Level Notes:

1965 = 20.03′ This would easily flood the dike road to Nelson, WI and potentially wash it out while damaging bridges. This would flood the homes of 30-40% of the city of Wabasha and nearly all homes south of Wabasha in the prairie neighborhoods. The railroad would shut down travel through the area for an unknown amount of time.

2001 = 18.22 This level closed the dike road to Nelson briefly (3-4 days near crest) and caused school to be closed in Wabasha with major flooding throughout the city and prairie neighborhoods south of Wabasha. The railroads stopped travel for a little over a week due to washed-out railroad beds as well.

***Edited Note: these are paraphrased notes from local officials flood preparation meetings. Nobody is really wagering a specific guess to the crest at Wabasha or Lake City in the City Works Depts. from people I’ve talked to in either town, but most are referencing notes and images from 2001 to prepare

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Brian Klawitter wrote:

The Harbor Bar is cleaning up the tables eat on his property as the water will be flowing into his parking lot sometime at the end of the week.

Last call BK?

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Will your camper be floating freely BK? As not tethered to the dock.

How is it looking down there guys? Looking like the first Crest coming Monday? All weather dependent after that?

Sure would be nice it it was the first an last crest for the year!

How’s it looking?? The road from the Woodshed to the Harbor Bar and the back channel is flooded. If a person could launch, I doubt they could make it under the back channel bridge.

Photo courtesy of Tim Alms Photography.

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16.3′ for a guess is looking pretty good right now!

Entries are now closed at 12:49:5 pm March 28th.

16.45 4/1 in Red Wing

I used the Wabasha gauge on my guess at 16.8′. That’s going to be a foot or so too high looking at most recent projections.

The flooding is still causing damage in SE Minnesota, but the 2 weeks without any precipitation in the area is really helping. To think that some places are getting a top 10 all-time flood without a drop of precipitation in 10+ days is mind-boggling. With a couple of storm systems in the past 2 weeks – we would have been in a world of hurt.

buckybadger wrote:

I used the Wabasha gauge on my guess at 16.8′. That’s going to be a foot or so too high looking at most recent projections.

The flooding is still causing damage in SE Minnesota, but the 2 weeks without any precipitation in the area is really helping. To think that some places are getting a top 10 all-time flood without a drop of precipitation in 10+ days is mind-boggling. With a couple of storm systems in the past 2 weeks – we would have been in a world of hurt.

Have been thinking the samething.

404 ERROR wrote:

16.45 4/1 in Red Wing

Umm…read the post above yours.

Updated 3/25/19

Let’s try this one. Updated 3/25/19

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How long will it take for them to get the harbor bar up and running after the water drops? Kinda depends on how high it gets yet?

Brad has flooding down pretty well. Once the water drops back to below 13′, the pressure washers come out then the bar ect is brought back in. Two days or less depending on product deliveries.

Fountain City boat landing in front of my house. Looks like crest coming next wednesday’ish. Although it’s never the last crest this early. There’ll be more crests to come if it’s normal. This seems way too early.

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Good to hear. Thanks BK! How is the floating camper holding up?

i agree with riverruns. Way to early for final crest. Historically it does not happen until after the 15th. It may drop some but spring storms could push it up again. A big rain event in the next few weeks would be really bad.

Dusty Gesinger wrote:

Good to hear. Thanks BK! How is the floating camper holding up?

All is good although I need hip boots to get to it today. Going down to start the generator to charge the batteries.

I’m kinda itching to get the Solera out of winterization. But….

Good to hear BK. May have to take your solera down stream a bit.

Randy Wieland wrote:

Trempealeau – TREW3
Crest at 651.97 April 18th

For EXTRA Pnts, I guess it will return to below flood stage (647) on May 17th

For the sake of all affected people by Spring floods, looks like I may have over shot the elevation and I hope I’m wrong. Forecast models now show Tremp cresting at 650. around April 3rd. Please NO significant amount of rain

Brian Klawitter wrote:

Umm…read the post above yours.

Dang you, BK. I see a Clinton email scandal v2.0 coming…

LOL! I didn’t have sex with that woman either.

Well, the new crest is 16.00 feet and that kicks me right out of first place. BTW I’m ok with that!

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Weather coming up this week could make things interesting again. I could see another big push of water and an even higher crest. alot of unknowms at this time with this weather system. Don’t let your guard down yet. Historical date of crest crest still to come.