Thing is with the warm ground, heavy wet snow, and the time period, it’ll never pile up to the forecasted amount, and some will flip out saying “they said over a foot – I only measured 4″ on my yard”
I’m all for a good heavy spring snowfall!
Newer model runs for the system on Sun/Mon favor warmer air, and thus more rain than snow now.
The clipper on Thursday is still on track to cut through the middle of the state as all snow, ranging from 2-6 inches depending on where you are.
If you haven’t run your snow blower in a while, you might want to try today. Just in case.
i’ll drive over the snow and pack it down before i start my blower…….thats in the back shed….
as little shoveling as i can get by with!!! 
^There’s a 0% chance of me starting a blower, putting a plow back on, or touching a shovel when there’s no frost in the ground. I’m betting most melts as fast as it falls, and the only snow that sticks more than a day or two will be what people needlessly pile up.
For the St. Cloud area they have backed down some. Now its saying 3-5″ on Sunday and Mon. and 1-3″ on Tues. Fair amount of wind all 3 days.
^There’s a 0% chance of me starting a blower, putting a plow back on, or touching a shovel when there’s no frost in the ground. I’m betting most melts as fast as it falls, and the only snow that sticks more than a day or two will be what people needlessly pile up.
I would also like to leave it alone and share your feelings about it. However I’m sure someone will be nagging me if I plan on that. Also my driveway is concrete which is awesome except the snow melts slowly and it faces east so less warm sun to melt.
My driveway faces south. It won’t bother one bit to have to drive thru some snow for a few days. Haven’t made up my mind if I want to sleep on the couch or not. It’s probably going to be a game time decision.
Its going to boil down to how much we actually get. These models are all over the place.
A large swath of MN is basically a lock to get 2″-3″ of precipitation between now and the end of next week. It’s just a matter of how much of that is snow at a ~10:1 ratio (20″-30″ if pure snow) or mix of snow and rain (most likely scenario).
A large swath of MN is basically a lock to get 2″-3″ of precipitation between now and the end of next week. It’s just a matter of how much of that is snow at a ~10:1 ratio (20″-30″ if pure snow) or mix of snow and rain (most likely scenario).
Where are you seeing this? I havent seen it reported anywhere lately, but I had seen it like on Monday. Now it seems totals have been trending down. No way it will be a 10:1 ratio of snow either.
Here’s the forecasted precip through Tuesday evening. How much falls as snow is anybody’s guess. Looks like metro is trending toward more rain. More snow as you head west.
precip-thru-Tues-evening.png
We have to travel to Rochester this weekend for the archery (NASP) state tournament. Might be an interesting drive.
DT
I think what he’s saying is that the moisture content in the snow is about 10-1. Which means 10 inches of snow for every inch of overall moisture. Its supposed to be the heavy wet stuff so that seems pretty accurate.
I think what he’s saying is that the moisture content in the snow is about 10-1. Which means 10 inches of snow for every inch of overall moisture. Its supposed to be the heavy wet stuff so that seems pretty accurate.
That is NOT heavy wet ratio. That is a typical ratio from like a clipper system. No chance at the temps forecasted that it will be anywhere near that.
If only it could happened in front of a weekend so I could get my sleds out.
^^^^X2
Picking up the Belle this afternoon and heading to the cabin.
Crossing my fingers we get enough to at least ride up and down the road. 
Weather underground is still showing 11″ sunday and 5″ monday.
with the ground thawed and above freezing, accumulation and actual snow fall totals will be completely different- my guess. And people will argue – no way we got that much!
Models for temperature in about a week are hinting at a warm up too. Nearing 60 degrees in the southern half of the state.
Might want to check your sump pump. Whatever falls is going to melt very rapidly and the ground isn’t froze either.
We have to travel to Rochester this weekend for the archery (NASP) state tournament. Might be an interesting drive.
DT
Where do we meet up Tracker? I’ll be down there too! Boy is in 7th grade. Pretty cool events.
Where are you seeing this? I havent seen it reported anywhere lately, but I had seen it like on Monday. Now it seems totals have been trending down. No way it will be a 10:1 ratio of snow either.
Directly from the weather models. Pivotal weather is a great tool. It’s only trending down in snow totals because the confidence is increasing that more precip will fall in the form of rain overnight Sunday into Monday. 10:1 is the gold standard used for most model interpretations and current forecasts call snow starting at 12:1 Sunday and decreasing to 8:1 into the evening.
Thanks for the tip on Pivotal weather I will check it out. Its still going to be a lot of precip regardless in what form it is. Which we need. There is no frost here in the first 6 inches, but a little bit further down. It will have to come down dang hard to accumulate quickly and I have seen things where they thought rates of over an inch an hour which is pretty dang impressive.
I use pivotal weather too. It has a lot of good graphics and maps.
There is no frost here in the first 6 inches, but a little bit further down. It will have to come down dang hard to accumulate quickly and I have seen things where they thought rates of over an inch an hour which is pretty dang impressive.
Surface temperatures don’t single handedly drive snow ratios. You need to look at an atmospheric sounding with the main player being the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). Melting and compacting once the snow hits the ground doesn’t effect the ratio at which it has fallen. Official snow measurements are taken frequently snow board to limit the amount of melting/compacting and gain an accurate reading. If 12″ of snow falls, and 6″ of it melts and compacts by the time you measure, 12″ of snow still fell.
College of Dupage Weather is another good weather model site. A little more user friendly than Pivotal, with fewer models overall.
Oh I know what you are saying. I have one of these official rain gauges that I leave out all winter. It holds 12 inches. I often see FAR more snow in it than what is actually on the ground which is exactly what you are getting at.
All you guys saying the ground is thawed and warm. It’s been below freezing for 2 days here and below freezing at night for a week, the frost is definitely not deep, but the ground is far from warm. Plenty cool to allow for considerable accumulation.
College of Dupage is what I use. hossfisher were/are you a fan of John Dee? That was his go to as well.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1711035320
Here’s the cumulative rain data. I like Weather Prediction Center, Dupage and NOAA for most of my data collection for weather. They are want I used while in college and just haven’t changed my habits.
Oh I know what you are saying. I have one of these official rain gauges that I leave out all winter. It holds 12 inches. I often see FAR more snow in it than what is actually on the ground which is exactly what you are getting at.
Yup! That’s a great example! You can also measure that and melt that snow down to find the water equivalent and subsequent snow ratio. If you have 8″ in the gauge, and melted down it comes out to 0.5″ of water, that means your snow:liquid ratio was 16:1.
Yup! That’s a great example! You can also measure that and melt that snow down to find the water equivalent and subsequent snow ratio. If you have 8″ in the gauge, and melted down it comes out to 0.5″ of water, that means your snow:liquid ratio was 16:1.
I was doing just that, but then when it all melted my wife dumped it before I could measure it! Ugh! There had been about 2 inches of water on the bottom frozen, but about 5 inches of snow. The water was from all that rain in December.
Had 8″ in NW WI (Polk Cty) at 4am and still snowing. I’m liking it. Safe travels to all.
Wunderground is still showing around 20” of snow this weekend for Granite Falls.
It’s also showing rain/snow next weekend.
Not sure how much snow we got yesterday. Been out in SD working all week.
IMG_4017.png
I’ve got a little over an inch of white stuff on hard surfaces with plenty of wet beneath it here in NW Rochester. The stuff started falling around 10 last night and the streets and sidewalks were still just wet at 3 this morning.
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