Uh Oh

Let’s get these weather terrorists revved up and ready!

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Timeframe? Is that the storm I eluded to for the 21st?

Some models show another one behind it 3 or 4 days. March may go out like a lion. Keeping an eye on this as we’ll be leaving on the 24th for a road trip out west for spring break with the boys.

This is the 10 day model guidance…would be Sunday the 24th. There are a few blips of flurries moving through during next week as well that it’s showing.

Obviously it could change 10x over by then, but something worth watching and noting how people get bent out of shape about maybe 6″ of snow in March.

I ran into a couple yesterday that were just out in Colorado and they were going to get hammered with snow so they left early. They got like 38 inches of snow, but were riding their Harley in MN yesterday LOL

Lol. its going not going to snow they have been so wrong this entire year. Just another hype story.

Buddy and his wife were taking a road trip out to California. Ran into roads closed and had to hold up overnight In Wyoming. Said snow was not a issue all winter here but was a problem when headed to California. I told them it was a sign that they should stay away.

We could definitely use it.

My terrorists are only saying 2-3 inches for Friday-Sunday for that storm. Central MN.
We shall see.

Glad I got a bunch of yard work in early. Im still ahead of the game but it looks like Ill need to take a break for a while. Hmmm what to do at the cabin this weekend with no ice and crappy weather…..

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suzuki wrote:

Glad I got a bunch of yard work in early. Im still ahead of the game but it looks like Ill need to take a break for a while. Hmmm what to do at the cabin this weekend with no ice and crappy weather…..

been biting at the bits to head up to the cabin also..i know its earlier then normal with the weather we had…….but this is by far the longest stretch since i retired that i havnet been up there. 6 weeks………and i’m seeing probably 3 more weeks yet……my wife is going batty!!!!!!!

Pailofperch wrote:

My terrorists are only saying 2-3 inches for Friday-Sunday for that storm. Central MN.
We shall see.

Yeah models are just starting to hint at that system. This early sometimes it misses not only localities, but the entire region. At best this is a coin toss of hitting with any measurable snow, but I’ll bet the forecasters run with it in the coming days for views/clicks/likes

The largest system right now doesn’t appear to possibly track into the region until Sunday evening…so Friday and Saturday look fine.

Pailofperch wrote:

My terrorists are only saying 2-3 inches for Friday-Sunday for that storm. Central MN.
We shall see.

The weather app that I use is showing nothing as of yet for the St Cloud area. like said, We shall see

Never look at simulated reflectivity maps 240 hours out. The best you can do that far out is to look at ensemble models (GEFS, EPS) to monitor trends. Operational models are only good for broad upper air patterns at that range. If anybody (including broadcast meteorologists) show a map of precipitation beyond 4 days out they’re just asking to be wrong.

With that said, upper air patterns and ensembles are showing signs of an active end of march in the precipitation department. Last night’s 00z GFS run even dropped 40″ of snow over MSP between now and March 30th. Book it.

The entire region could use that moisture. Whether it comes as rain or snow. Its parched out there. I’m beginning to wonder what lake and river levels will be like come summer if this dry pattern continues.

The analog years for this upcoming El Nino transitioning back to year 1 La Nina tend to favor above average precipitation across the central plains up to the north into Minnesota. Unfortunately, this is not a guarantee, but history is our best indicator this far out.

Interesting to note as well, the strongest analog years, also contain several strong to violent MN tornado’s (my interest).

gimruis wrote:

The entire region could use that moisture.

I have TONS of cracks in my yard mainly just visible in bare areas. Stupid dry!

Not only do we need the moisture, the lake water needs to cool down.

It’s growing. Always interesting to see if they get anything right.

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Windy windy this weekend and look at all the snow Wunderground is showing for next weekend in western Mn.
We could definitely use the moisture. If we are transitioning to a LaNina weather pattern. Will it be above average precipitation like it has in the past. Time will tell.

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Sorry guys, it’s my fault. I finally took the roof rake off the truck last week, after dragging my feet, “just in case”. Never fails.

Just saw a model forecast that predicted 2 to 3 inches of liquid equivalent by next Wednesday and most of it would fall as snow.

That would be a crap load of snow if it turns out to be true. We’re talking nearly 3 feet of snow if its 3 inches of water, roughly.

I saw 2-3 inches of snow. Not 2-3 inches of “water equivalent snow.”

Yeah, Paul Douglass just tweeted it this morning. REminder this is by next Wednesday so over a week out.

The fox9 app is say 4-8″ for both Sunday and Monday, 2-6″ for Tuesday. European and GFS models are pretty similar predicting a substantial system for central and southern MN. Since we’re leaving Sunday for Montana, I’m guessing it’ll happen.

Precipitation levels are climbing western MN.

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Of course they’re never right this far out but the forecast starting next Sunday is a little bit alarming.

This is the forecast for St Paul from weather underground.

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Ma and the girls’ fresh chicks may have to wait another week to leave the heated brooder and head to the coop.

I would love to see it stay warm and have a few days of 50 degree soaking rains, but I’ll take whatever moisture we can get at this point. If it’s 8-10″ of heavy, wet melting snow spread out over a few days that’s better than nothing.

This stuff should melt fast with 0″ of frost in the ground. I’ll get a chuckle at the people racing out to plow and rutting everything to a mess and piling it up so that it only lasts longer.

I told you guys back in February or even January that we would make up for it in March and April. We will see like you say its a long way out, but I bet it happens. Might have to use my snowblower finally. Havent started it yet.

If only it could happened in front of a weekend so I could get my sleds out.