It’s being reported the Twins signed Nelson Cruz to a one year $14 million dollar deal with a option for another year. My question…….why? Where do they plan to play him?
Oh well a belated Christmas present I guess.
Just DH I had heard earlier.
I wonder what part of the analytics supports the PowerBall approach? Rent a bunch of players on 1 year deals, and see if they all hit! Twins Baseball it’s Fantastic!
Just another guy to dump at the trade deadline for prospects I suppose. Although I would think he would put a limited no trade clause in his contract.
Twins are just playing along with the market dynamics right now, it makes sense economically to sign older players to 1-2 year deals. It’s exactly the same scenario as when the Twins signed Thome to a 1yr deal in 2010 and I’ll guess that no one complained about that, only thing that’s changed is the $$ and players should always get every red cent they can.
If you’d like, here’s a couple pieces on what is happening with MLB free agents now.
The Twins need a full time DH and RH power is always nice to have, IMO it’s a fine signing and I hope he stays healthy.
I do like the Twins having an actual DH. For the last several years it’s been a combination of Grossman/any-other-position-player-who’s-been-given-the-day-off-from-the-field.
Also, I would imagine they are doing what they did with a bunch last year, trying the low-risk one-year contract and if he helps the team, great, they’ve got team control for a second year and if the team sucks they can flip the player like they did last year with Lynn and a few others.
I admit that in theory that approach could be helpful and work. However, I for one don’t want to see them be sellers for 10 years.
No team is going to give a 38 year old player a contract longer than 1-2 years. I understand the concern on 1 year contracts for a guy in his 20s or something.
I absolutely love this signing, Cruz has been the most consistent power hitter in baseball over the past 4-5 years. I believe he has the most HRs of any player over the last 4 seasons or something, WHILE PLAYING 81 GAMES A YEAR IN SAFECO. He had basically 4 straight years of 40HR in Safeco, that’s crazy.
There’s probably something to be said about locker room chemistry if everyone is on 1 year deals, but I like not being locked in to terrible contracts. Once the team proves that they have a contention window, then go all in(or as all in as the Twins can go). But don’t go all in before you really know if this ‘core’ is capable of competing, and the unwelcome truth is that we don’t know that they are.
These one year deals also really help accumulate draft capital/prospects if the season goes south. The Yankees basically re-built their farm system this way in 1-2 years, an enragingly short amount of time. They signed Aroldis Chapman to a 1 year deal and then flipped him at the deadline for a king’s ransom. Of course, the other side to that coin is that you have to actually have the ability to draft/acquire/develop young players, and I think the Twins are woefully inept at that compared to other organizations.
Honestly, if you exclude the generational players in Harper and Machado, Cruz is the best hitter in this free agent class.
What else do you want the Twins to do? This is a different deal than the ‘sign a guy on a 1 year contract and hope he bounces back’ type contract. This is a ‘sign a top tier slugger’. This slugger happens to be old, but again, if we actually are in contention this year, Cruz will be a huge boon to our lineup.
Let’s also not forget Cruz is a GREAT clubhouse guy. Subtracted Doz and Mauer…we have a void and Cruz will get these boys ready daily. Great signing if you ask me.
Yeah I don’t disagree with it being a good signing. What Falvine are doing may very well work and make this team a dynasty, we just don’t know yet. I sure hope so, but they’ll need the backing of ownership to take it that far.
What else do you want the Twins to do? This is a different deal than the ‘sign a guy on a 1 year contract and hope he bounces back’ type contract. This is a ‘sign a top tier slugger’. This slugger happens to be old, but again, if we actually are in contention this year, Cruz will be a huge boon to our lineup.
Well I’m naïve and thought went the Pohlads said they needed a stadium to compete, they actually meant it. I like Nelson Cruz as a player a lot, so this isn’t a knock on him at all. But I don’t think the sign a bunch of 1 year deal guys, hope everything comes together within 4 months, and if not flip them for pieces is a realistic or sustainable model for success. The only reason the Machado’s/Harpers/Arrieta’s/Darvishs etc. are not even an option is the owner’s. Period. I don’t expect them to spend 200+ million a year like the top teams, but if their payroll were consistently in the 130-170 million range they would be competitive. But that would mean the Pohlad’s would only make a few million every year, instead of the 10’s of millions they make with their current business model.
Still a lot of work to do, I really hope we invest in the bullpen A LOT. Signing some top-tier relievers is a fairly low-risk move because they are ALWAYS in demand come the deadline, and most of the deals for RP are shorter term. Remember how hard it was to move Dozier? That’s because most of the contending teams were pretty well set at 2B, but there is never a situation where contenders aren’t hoping to add to their bullpen.
Tons of viable options available right now too. I wish we would have went after Miller. Personally, I would love to get two of Robertson/Allen/Herrera/Britton as top end pieces, and then add a few lower class guys for depth/upside. We currently have 1 RP making more than 600k on the roster right now, tons of room to spend.
I’m not sure how anyone can be upset with this signing other than the guy is 38. He has been the most consistent power hitter in the AL for about the last decade. He always hits around .280, 30-40 HRs, and 100 RBI. He has had 3 100 RBI seasons in the last 6 years. Guess how many the Twins players have had in that span. Big fat 0!
They needed a DH unless you wanted to see Tyler Austin hit 20 HRs with 200 Ks. This was the right move, the right deal even, for the Twins. One year, 14 mil, and a buyout of $300,000. That’s nothing. Also, by all accounts he’s a great leader in the clubhouse and I’m hoping they put Fat Miguel’s locker right next to Cruz’ and maybe he can knock some sense into Sano’s thick head.
Now it’s time to find a bullpen.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>philtickelson wrote:</div>
What else do you want the Twins to do? This is a different deal than the ‘sign a guy on a 1 year contract and hope he bounces back’ type contract. This is a ‘sign a top tier slugger’. This slugger happens to be old, but again, if we actually are in contention this year, Cruz will be a huge boon to our lineup.Well I’m naïve and thought went the Pohlads said they needed a stadium to compete, they actually meant it. I like Nelson Cruz as a player a lot, so this isn’t a knock on him at all. But I don’t think the sign a bunch of 1 year deal guys, hope everything comes together within 4 months, and if not flip them for pieces is a realistic or sustainable model for success. The only reason the Machado’s/Harpers/Arrieta’s/Darvishs etc. are not even an option is the owner’s. Period. I don’t expect them to spend 200+ million a year like the top teams, but if their payroll were consistently in the 130-170 million range they would be competitive. But that would mean the Pohlad’s would only make a few million every year, instead of the 10’s of millions they make with their current business model.
Unfortunately, I think it’s the only somewhat sustainable model for a small to mid-market team. If you don’t have top tier player development capabilities(ie: St. Louis Cardinals of the 2000s/early 2010s, Astros the last few years, etc.) you have to push the chips in while your window is open.
The alternative is consistent mediocrity through ‘high-value’ free agents, which given the current CBA means…old free agents. Almost every team that’s tried to drastically add to their team in free agency has just failed, and then been on the hook for long/terrible contracts, leading to more years of mediocrity followed by a lengthy rebuild process.
These short term deals give you short term upside to compete. Should the season go south like last year, you can flip the productive players for draft or prospect capital to re-boot for the next year.
Most years it’s just not possible to build a true contender through free agency, unless you are a top 5 spending team, you have to have a young core that develops around the same time. Once they are rolling, then you push the chips in and ‘overpay’ for those free agents that will get you over the hump.
I think we can all agree that the Twins aren’t 1-2 pieces away from contending, I think the last thing we need to do is sign a bunch of old free agents to long term deals.
I think I’d be more thirsty for some more ‘big’ signings had Sano/Buxton developed quicker, a Sano/Buxton/Berrios playing at their full potential core would have been something to quickly build around and compete. But that’s…just not been the case.
Also, while it’s a moot point, I don’t think it’s the owners keeping Harper/Machado away. There is no way either of those guys wants to play in Target Field for the rest of their career. They want money, more attention, competitive teams AND I’d guess they want either a hitters park, or a home field that doesn’t get snowed on for the first two months of the season. The Twins historically have offered none of those things. Target Field is terrible for left handed hitters, Harper would stay FAR away. It’s actually a favorable park for righties, but no chance Machado ends up here.
I wouldn’t want Harper at $200 million much less the 3 or 400 million he’s trying to get. While he is young, I just don’t understand all the hype.
As far as the Twins go I need to see some minor league development progress under these guys. If they keep up this sign & trade for draft picks then they need to develop them or it just becomes another Minnesota smoke & mirrors show.
BigWorm I gotta ask….. if the Twins had a $110 million dollar pay-roll in the Metro-dome would you be going to watch them lose 85+ games a year? You keep trying to sell the same old story and it never holds water. It’s Mauers contract, it’s the new stadium, it’s always something you circle around back to the Pohlads. You must not have been around for the Griffith years.
Unfortunately, I think it’s the only somewhat sustainable model for a small to mid-market team. If you don’t have top tier player development capabilities(ie: St. Louis Cardinals of the 2000s/early 2010s, Astros the last few years, etc.) you have to push the chips in while your window is open.
Just a clarification. The Houston Astros are NOT small to mid-market team. Houston is the 4th largest metro area in the US behind NY, LA and Chicago. They have a lot of “resources” at their disposal.
That being said I agree they have built a great, sustainable team mostly through the draft. They also pulled the trigger on Verlander getting a year and half of very good pitching out of him for a few of their prospects.
The only reason the Machado’s/Harpers/Arrieta’s/Darvishs etc. are not even an option is the owner’s. Period
Exactly that. Being a Twins fan is like growing up poor. Twins fans hear of big name free agents and think how exciting that could be but know that it’s not affordable, the Twins can’t afford that player just like the family can’t afford a bike to play outside with. Then Twins fans have to watch all these other teams enjoy success. The White Sox have had mostly down years my entire life but they have a 2005 WS Championship. Other teams have gone from bad, gutted, rebuilt, bad and gutted again, and some day win a WS.
The difference between being a Twins fan and having a poor family is the Twins have the money and option to spend it but they don’t. There’s absolutely no reason the Twins can’t sign the best players on the market, the best ace pitchers, etc. They just choose not to and put a mediocre at best out there.
Like Werm said, it’s the ownership keeping the GM’s from spending money.
I absolutely love watching the Twins and follow them like crazy, but I don’t try too hard to give them my money. They’ve been one of the most poorly run franchises in all sports since 1991.
So you are saying the Twins should not operate the baseball team as a business. They should take money from the other businesses to fund the Twins buying players? Please list the other teams in baseball that do that?
The White Sox in 05 are an example of nothing. They won a World Series. Great, where have they been since? Twins won in ’87 & ’91. Reloaded and dominated the division in the early 2000’s. Sox have done nothing in the second largest market in the country.
Ask the Brewer fans, Mets fans, Angels fans, Mariner fans, Padre fans, Phillies fans, and the list goes on if they would like that success? You can’t buy winners with money alone. You need the minor league pipeline to bring you the players and then you add through free agency and trades.
Would you all suggest that the Cubs aren’t trying because of the owners because they have only won the one World Series lately?
The Pohlads could spend 200 million and if they didn’t win people would still complain.
The White Sox in 05 are an example of nothing. They won a World Series. Great, where have they been since?
I’m 34 and don’t remember 87 or 91. That White Sox year you’re describing? I’d take that over anything MN sports has provided since 91. A championship. Much rather have that than a bunch of banners from winning bad divisions, then losing to good baseball teams in the playoffs.
I just wanna see them try. Look at the Vikes. They’ve signed some big contracts with their defensive guys, plus Diggs, and still went after the best free agent quarterback. Will it work? Not likely this year, they may not make the playoffs. Will is work during Cousins’ 3-year contract? Maybe. Can I say that at least the Vikings tried? Yep, they sure did. Can you ever say that about the Twins?
No I couldn’t. But then I don’t compare football & baseball in anything. I asked this of somebody before and never got a answer so maybe i’ll try it again.
List this years free agents and what you would spend to sign them. Don’t use pie in the sky numbers, use numbers that have a legit chance of getting the player. We all know the Twins need pitching. How much you paying to sign top tier starters? Top tier mid relief? You spending $25 million on Miller who the Indians have beaten to death the last three years?
Easy to talk about buying players but it’s not easy to actually do it. If you notice this isn’t exactly the top destination for top players who have a choice.
So you are saying the Twins should not operate the baseball team as a business. They should take money from the other businesses to fund the Twins buying players? Please list the other teams in baseball that do that?
No, I’m saying they should take better care of their golden goose business by investing in it. They have publicly stated they plan on spending 65% of revenue. So if they have a $100m player payroll, the Pohlads have $55/m per year to pay some bills and front office staff before pocketing the rest. Easily in the 30-40m range goes to their personal coffers every year, on top of the franchise value increasing from $300m in 2009 to $1.2B In 2018. And for what it’s worth, Mike Ilitch operated the Tigers at 100%+ of revenue for a number of VERY successful years, so it can be done in a mid-market, you know if the owners can tone down their greed a bit.
Twins could spend 100% of their own revenue and still make like 30-40M a year from revenue sharing. No team does that though because the owners for the most part are ultra-wealthy greedy elitists without a single interest in winning.
If I have time I’ll take a shot at your challenge Dutch, it will probably be terrible, but might be fun if I get bored today!
Go for it! Just remember the idea isn’t to just get in the play-offs. Pick the team needed to win the central and be good enough to take out Boston, New York & Houston. In addition everybody thinks the Pohlads should win the World Series be sure this team you build can take out the Dodgers, Rockies, Cubs, Cardinals of the National League also.
To keep it somewhat realistic how about a cap of $175 – $185 million for pay-roll. Also the max length of contracts you sign is 5 years for 2 guys and 3 years for the rest.
OK, have fun this should take up a couple hours of your day. 
The Twins are still in rebuilding mode. Now is not the time to drop $200 (or more) mil on an aging player. Little too early in my opinion. By the time we can expect the twins to ACTUALLY compete for a WS, that Darvish/Kuechel contract would be 3 or so years in and looking pretty terrible. Small market teams can not afford to make mistakes. Mauers giant contract is off the books, no need to rush into another.
Keep bringing in vets on 1 year deals to preserve long-term payroll flexibility and kill time until they go for it in 2020-2021 range. That’s been the plan all along. Trust the process.
Go for it! Just remember the idea isn’t to just get in the play-offs. Pick the team needed to win the central and be good enough to take out Boston, New York & Houston. In addition everybody thinks the Pohlads should win the World Series be sure this team you build can take out the Dodgers, Rockies, Cubs, Cardinals of the National League also.
To keep it somewhat realistic how about a cap of $175 – $185 million for pay-roll. Also the max length of contracts you sign is 5 years for 2 guys and 3 years for the rest.
OK, have fun this should take up a couple hours of your day.
I’ll let you know what I come up with :). I think taking out the Astros/Yankees/Red Sox is a tall order, mainly because they have super star cores of cost controlled players that the Twins just don’t have. So the best we’ll probably be able to do is a, “could beat them in a short series maybe 10-25% of the time”.
Phil, if you would, please include in your plan to make the switch back from Schwiegert hot dogs to the old Hormel dome dogs. I think that needs to be in the future plans.
Really?????????? You’re going to spend up to $185 million for a 25% chance of winning? Better get BigWorm to help ya on this. 
Alright, this is a pretty choppy effort at this, but here it goes. Please note, this scenario is under the assumption that we can have a 2019 payroll of $180M and compete for the division and world series in 2019. This is likely an unrealistic scenario, and I don’t know the Twins minor league system well enough to say who we will get contributions from in ’19, ’20, ’21. I’m also not getting too into depth players, let’s just assume that the Twins will have another $10M of depth players, ie: utility infielders, backup catcher, young bullpen arms, etc. I’m going to focus on the starting lineup, rotation, and core bullpen.
Also note that these will be estimates based on the salary at the end of 2018. I’m not going to do the work to track the young players and estimate arb values and all that jazz, so the salary numbers might be +/- $10M off. I’m using numbers off of spotrac.
Lastly, I’m making the assumption that any FA that’s already signed this off-season WOULD have signed with the Twins for the same offer. Which is probably a bad assumption but whatever leave me alone.
Current lineup, italics are players we will replace/upgrade:
C: Castro
1B: Tyler Austin / Sano
2B: Luis Arraez
3B: Sano
SS: Adrianza / Polanco
LF: Eddie Rosario
RF: Jake Cave <-
CF: Byron Buxton
DH: Sano / Austin / ???
SP1: Berrios
SP2: Gibson
SP3: Pineda
SP4: Odorizzi / move down to long relief or SP5
SP5: Romero
RP1: Addison Reed / move down to RP3 or RP4
RP2:
RP3:
RP4:
<depth bullpen guys ie: our current bullpen> ~$5M
<long reliever/spot starter> $~2M
Twins Payroll after 2018: $40M
Remaining Payroll: $140M
Next post will try to shore up that starting lineup!
Really?????????? You’re going to spend up to $185 million for a 25% chance of winning? Better get BigWorm to help ya on this.
That’s the game man! Considering the team that finished the regular season with the best record has only won the world series 13 times in the 49 years of the postseason era(26.%), I don’t think that’s unreasonable.
https://www.mlb.com/cut4/does-team-with-mlbs-best-record-win-the-world-series/c-295970572
Again, it’s impossible for the Twins to build the best roster in the MLB in one or two off seasons when the other top contenders have generational talents still on their rookie contracts and we have … Sano and Buxton?
Alright, let’s get started. First, I really like the Schoop and Cruz signings, so we are going to keep those.
Schoop: 1 year, $7.5M
Cruz: 1 year, $14M w/ option for year 2. We will assume he rakes and we pickup that option for year 2.
Total Payroll hit for 2019: $21.5
Remaining Payroll: $118.5M
Our other big need is at 1B/3B, SS, and RF. I’m thinking we move Sano back to first base so no one has to watch him play 3B anymore.
Sign Josh Donaldson for 2 years, $23M.
Total hit to Payroll for 2019: $23M
Remaining Payroll: $95.5M
So now we have Donaldson at 3B, Sano at 1B, Cruz at DH. That’s a lot of power in the middle of the order!
I don’t think there’s really great value out there at SS this year. Twins ride with Polanco/Adrianza, and maybe look to add next year(huge deal to Xander Bogaerts?!) or see if Gordon is the answer there in the future. What about RF?
Twins sign Michael Brantley to 2 year, $32M deal. I love this guy, injury concerns are there, but he never strikes out, get’s on base a ton, is used to playing in the midwest, and gets lots of XBH. Plus, he’s a very competent LH bat that’s needed after going pretty RH heavy with our other signings.
Total hit to Payroll for 2019: $16M
Remaining Payroll: $79.5M
This leaves us Cave/Kepler on the bench to fill in the OF to rest our starters or when we have injuries.
$79.5M to shore up our pitching staff eh? Let’s see how that works for us!
Our lineup thus far:
C: Castro
1B: Sano
2B: Schoop
SS: Polanco
3B: Donaldson
LF: Rosario
CF: Buxton
RF: Brantley
DH: Cruz
Bench players: Cave, Kepler, Austin, Adrianza,
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