Last month, during Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey’s final in-person media session of the season, I asked if he anticipates the team’s 2022 payroll being in the same range as the previous three seasons, when they spent $125 million to $140 million. That spending was slightly below average among all MLB teams, ranking 18th, 17th and 17th from 2019 to 2021, respectively.
Here is Falvey’s full answer:
“(Twins owner Jim Pohlad) has made it very clear — and he’s been on record with this, and certainly I have at different junctures — that he’s been willing to invest when we feel it’s a good idea and a good time to invest. We’ve run some of the highest payrolls we’ve had in franchise history the past few seasons. So I anticipate being able to have those conversations with Jim again. He’s given me that indication.”
There are different ways to take an answer like that, depending on your overall feeling about the Twins’ spending habits over the years. In the room, I took the response as something resembling a “yes,” although admittedly in reading back through the transcript the phrasing Falvey used is certainly less straightforward, most likely intentionally.
Falvey, Pohlad and other prominent Twins officials have consistently put forth messaging that the team plans to resume contending in 2022, portraying its 2021 struggles as an outlier and positioning this offseason’s upcoming path as a reload rather than a rebuild. All of which is fine, and perhaps even logical, but without something resembling an average payroll attached, it’s mostly just spin.
“I’m not using that word (rebuild),” Falvey said. “We’ll invest in this team next year for sure. This isn’t with an eye toward five years down the line.”
We’ll see.
In the meantime, what we can figure out for certain is how much money they already have committed for 2022 before the offseason begins. From there, we can work backward from the Twins’ projected (and self-imposed) payroll limit to determine spending room.
Guaranteed contracts
Relative to the other 29 teams, the Twins have very clean books. They have just one player, Josh Donaldson, guaranteed as much as $10 million in 2022 and the same remains true for 2023 as well due to the team-friendly natures of the Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Randy Dobnak contracts. Kenta Maeda’s incentive-driven deal even limits him to $3.125 million as he rehabs from elbow surgery.
Josh Donaldson
$21.75M
Miguel Sanó
$9.25M
Max Kepler
$6.75M
Jorge Polanco
$5.5M
Kenta Maeda
$3.125M
Randy Dobnak
$0.8M
TOTAL
$47.175M
That total of $46.175 million represents the starting point for the 2022 payroll because the Twins would still need to fill out the roster with minimum-salaried players, bringing the real lowest possible payroll to around $60 million. Barring trades, of course. They could further reduce the payroll by moving players with guaranteed salaries, such as Donaldson, Kepler and Miguel Sanó.
For some context, the average MLB team has about $80 million in guaranteed 2022 salaries on the books and a dozen teams have at least twice as much as the Twins have already committed, including the White Sox at more than $140 million.
Contract options
Alexander Colomé’s one-year deal signed last winter includes a mutual option for 2022, meaning the Twins won’t be able to just move on from him cleanly.
Alexander Colomé
$5.5M
$1.25M
TOTAL
$5.5M
$1.25M
Here’s how Colomé’s contract works: First the Twins must either exercise his 2022 option for $5.5 million or buy him out for $1.25 million. In the unlikely event the Twins exercise their half of his $5.5 million option, Colomé then has the right to exercise his half to return at that salary or turn it down to become a free agent, which would save the Twins the $1.25 million buyout.
All of which is a long way of saying the Twins will likely need to pay the $1.25 million buyout to move on from Colomé, although it’s possible he pitched well enough after a horrendous April to convince them he’s worth bringing back for another $4.25 million. He had a 3.51 ERA in 56 innings after May 1, with 15 saves and a .391 slugging percentage against. Unlikely, but not impossible.
Departing free agents
This list got thinned out considerably by the midseason trades of Nelson Cruz, Hansel Robles and J.A. Happ, plus the release of Matt Shoemaker. Those four veterans were each signed to one-year deals totaling $25 million. They’re gone.
That leaves just two exiting free agents. Andrelton Simmons, the fifth veteran signed to a one-year contract last offseason, and Michael Pineda, who returned to the Twins two offseasons ago on a two-year deal.
Andrelton Simmons
$10.5M
Michael Pineda
$10M
TOTAL
$20.5M
Simmons and Pineda will officially become free agents shortly after the World Series, with no impact on the 2022 payroll. They can be re-signed before then, or after becoming free agents. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Twins try to bring back Pineda, perhaps on a one-year contract heavy on incentives, although both sides may want to let the market play out first.
Projected arbitration salaries
This is where uncertainty really enters the picture.
After completing three minimum-salaried years of service time, players become eligible for arbitration, which is designed to give sizable, built-in raises to now-veteran players getting closer and closer to free agency. If a team deems a player not worth the projected arbitration salary — possible examples of which you’ll see momentarily — they can simply cut the player before the December deadline.
For the most part, though, the arbitration process creates team-friendly salaries for in-their-prime players, most of whom are retained and can thus be counted alongside guaranteed salaries for book-keeping purposes. However, if any new collective bargaining agreement alters the arbitration process, those old assumptions may become moot.
For now, let’s assume the eventual new CBA treats arbitration roughly the same as it does currently, leaving the Twins with the following 12 arbitration-eligible players and their projected salaries (via MLB Trade Rumors) this offseason:
Byron Buxton
$7.3M
Taylor Rogers
$6.7M
Tyler Duffey
$3.7M
John Gant
$3.7M
Mitch Garver
$3.1M
Luis Arraez
$2.0M
Caleb Thielbar
$1.2M
Willians Astudillo
$1.2M
Jake Cave
$1.1M
Juan Minaya
$1.1M
Rob Refsnyder
$0.8M
Danny Coulombe
$0.8M
TOTAL
$32.7M
Retaining all 12 arbitration-eligible players could cost the Twins more than $30 million, but it’s safe to assume they won’t want to do that.
Jake Cave and Willians Astudillo are highly unlikely to be kept via arbitration, even at those low salaries. John Gant is marginal at $3.7 million. Juan Minaya, Danny Coulombe and Rob Refsnyder are all reasonably priced, but it’s possible they’re simply not in the 2022 plans. Those six role players, projected to make $8.7 million if retained, are anything but locked in.
Taylor Rogers’ uncertain health status (and post-2022 free agency) makes $6.7 million to keep him less of a no-brainer than it would have been a few months ago. Similarly, the Twins may decide $3.7 million is too much for Tyler Duffey given his decline in several key areas this season. Both relievers are likely to be kept, but it’s not assured.
Of the 12 arbitration-eligible players, only Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, Luis Arraez and Caleb Thielbar seem like no-brainers to retain at those projections, so the total outlay via arbitration could get as low as $13.6 million (or lower if anyone is traded). For now, though, a reasonable bet is the Twins keep Buxton, Rogers, Duffey, Garver, Arraez and Thielbar for around $24 million.
Bottom line
Assuming the Twins buy out Colomé and retain their six primary arbitration-eligible players, they’re looking at a payroll of right around $80 million to start the offseason. Parting with Rogers and Duffey would trim that number to just under $70 million, but anything lower than that would require either trades or unexpected cuts of arbitration-eligible players.
Falvey’s payroll-related comments, if taken at face value, suggest the Twins plan to spend similarly to the past three seasons. On the lower end that would mean $125 million, leaving the Twins with around $45 million to spend. On the high side that would mean $140 million, giving them $60 million in spending room, with another $10 million to spend if Rogers and Duffey were to be cut loose.
That’s nearly twice as much buying power as the Twins had heading into last offseason, which is good news because they’ll need it if the talk of contending in 2022 is more than just lip service.
…foolish
