Twins 2022

Yeah that was on OK inning.

eyeguy507 wrote:

well so much for the hitting drought…..Royce Lewis with his first dong and its a slam. such a cool moment for a guy we have been waiting to see for a long time. i don’t see how you send him back down once Correa heals up

I’ll give you 35 million reasons he goes down. Unless they move him to third he goes back to St. Paul for playing time. There isn’t one chance in a million that Boris allows Correa to be moved off of shortstop.

On a side note, MLB had him on for a interview on TV the night he got his first hit. He was so good in that interview that they run a clip of it as a commercial all the time. He has quite the personality.

I agree that he will go back down but not because he can’t hang at the big league level. They want him playing every day at shortstop and he won’t have that opportunity at with the Twins. He will be the starter next year most likely when Correa is gone.

Left field is up for grabs. Unless the braintrust believes he is only allowed to play short?

Heard 35mill could be out another week so we’ll see how he’s hitting the next 2 series?

I’m not confidant that Kirilloff will ever play again, or at least 100% with the kind of injury he has that may never heal. Hope I’m wrong.

Could move Lewis to Left Field at least for now. If he can continue to hit major league pitching at an above average rate, then there are $35 million reasons to trade Correa to a team hopefully with some surplus pitching. I think the Twins would miss him but at some point, economics may become a factor.

Did he get a no trade along with his opt outs? I don’t recall hearing. I think the market for Correa would be soft unless you traded him now to a team that really needed a shortstop, like St. Louis. How much could you get for a guy with a opt out?

I personally would keep him in St. Paul playing short stop unless you knew for sure Correa was staying after this season. Playing him in left takes away at bats for guys who need them.

Long Gleeman read from yesterday (13th)

By Aaron Gleeman
May 13, 2022

I published my last mailbag column on April 21, when the Twins were 4-8 and most of the questions were about how to react to the sky falling. It’s only three weeks later — I’m planning to write new mailbags every two or three weeks all season, as long as you keep sending in lots of good questions — and yet they’ve taken over first place in the AL Central by going 14-6 since then.

Things are far from perfect, especially after a listless sweep at the hands of the Astros, more struggles to find consistent offense and another batch of injuries, but the Twins are in a much better place than the last time we got together and they’re entering a very soft section of the schedule. And for the most part, your questions reflect the positive change in vibes, which isn’t always the case.

Let’s do this.

Do you see a path for Royce Lewis to force his way into everyday duty or is he back in St. Paul the minute Carlos Correa is ready? — Drew M.

My assumption is the Twins will send Lewis back to the minors when Correa returns from the injured list because they’ll want him to keep playing every day and that opportunity won’t exist in the majors. With that said, we’ve seen how injuries can change plans in a hurry, and it’s possible by the time Correa comes back another key hitter will be sidelined, changing the situation for Lewis.

Lewis certainly was playing well enough at Triple A to warrant a call-up on his own merits, regardless of Correa’s status. But because he missed so much time, and is coming back from such a serious injury, the Twins were expecting Lewis to need more time to shake off the rust. It’s incredibly encouraging that he’s put himself in a spot where this is a legitimate question already.

If the Twins do send Lewis back to St. Paul when Correa returns, it would be telling if they start giving him some reps at positions other than shortstop. Not because they’ve lost confidence in Lewis’ ability to play shortstop — if anything that confidence has grown compared to two years ago — but because Correa is blocking him from sticking in the majors without more positional flexibility.

Even if the Twins were comfortable using Lewis in, say, left field — just for now, with a full-time return to shortstop eventually in the plans — that would open up a lot more possibilities for him to contribute alongside Correa, instead of merely in place of Correa. And if the Twins felt comfortable playing him at multiple other positions, a utility role in the second half could be intriguing.

What’s the plan for Alex Kirilloff’s wrist? He obviously seems bothered by it and the team seems to want him to play through it. — Kris S.

It’s become a very difficult situation with no obvious solution, unfortunately.

Kirilloff tore a ligament in his right wrist last May, shortly after his debut. He played through the injury for two months, with mediocre results and increasing discomfort, and he underwent season-ending surgery in July. It was supposed to leave him enough time to be healthy for spring training, but ongoing pain when swinging sent him back to the injured list last month.

What makes it such a tricky situation is that there’s no “new” injury. Kirilloff is back in the Twins’ lineup after doctors found no additional structural damage, but he continues to have pain and is obviously limited at the plate. For now at least he’s playing through it again, with the hope being that the discomfort will subside and the strength will return with more time and day-to-day treatment.

Wrist injuries can be extremely challenging for hitters, and as we’re seeing with Kirilloff the recovery process varies. Surgery repairing structural damage doesn’t guarantee an immediate, full-strength return, just as continued issues following surgery doesn’t also preclude gradual improvement. That’s where Kirilloff finds himself right now.

My guess — based purely on speculation — is that if he continues to struggle, the Twins will consider sending Kirilloff back to the minors so he can continue to play regularly in an environment where his every at-bat isn’t placed under a microscope and his lack of production doesn’t hurt the big-league team. That’s far from ideal, but there’s no good, clean, easy solution here. Injuries suck.

Do you think the Twins should be favored to win the division? — Ethan S.

It’s natural to think a team with a multi-game lead in mid-May is the favorite to win the division, and that may be true, but statistically we’re not quite there yet. Coming into the season, the White Sox were clearly AL Central favorites. BetMGM set their over/under at 91.5 wins and FanGraphs projected them for 88 wins, compared to Twins’ over/under of 81.5 and projection of 82 wins.

So while a two-game lead roughly 30 games into the season is meaningful, it doesn’t fully close that gap. Of course, that assumes BetMGM and FanGraphs were “right” about both teams back then, and it also assumes the overall quality of each team hasn’t changed since then due to injuries or other factors. My gut says the division is now closer to a toss-up, but the numbers don’t really agree.

FanGraphs initially projected the White Sox at 60 percent and the Twins at 23 percent to win the AL Central, and now it’s 54 percent Chicago and 32 percent Minnesota. (Cleveland’s odds have improved slightly to 13 percent.) BetMGM has the White Sox as -130 favorites and the Twins as +175 underdogs, roughly equal to 56 percent Chicago and 36 percent Minnesota. It’s a fairer fight now.

Trevor Larnach’s biggest issue last season was hitting non-fastballs, and it seems like he’s had more success this year. Did he figure out how to hit them or has he been seeing more fastballs? — Maxwell W.

As a rookie last season, Larnach saw the sixth-fewest fastballs in the AL, and after a great first couple of months his inability to do damage against off-speed pitches led to a lengthy slump and a return to the minors. Believe it or not, he’s seen even fewer fastballs this year, which makes his hitting .313/.365/.448 in 22 games before a recent groin injury all the more impressive.

That’s a very small sample, and it includes some unsustainably good fortune on balls in play, but Larnach has definitely shown signs of improvement versus off-speed pitches. In fact, he’s already got five extra-base hits on non-fastballs in 22 games after totaling just three in 79 games last season. He remains a big part of the Twins’ future and should be back in the lineup very soon.

I was surprised to see the Twins’ team OPS is eighth in MLB. Do they have a good offense? It feels like they’ve been underperforming. — Matthew M.

Leaguewide context is always important when evaluating raw numbers, but it’s particularly key this season because offense is down dramatically across MLB.

In a normal season, the Twins’ current .696 OPS would be well below average. Last season, for example, it would have ranked 13th in the AL. However, this season the league as a whole is batting just .230 with a .664 OPS, a 67-point dropoff from last season and the lowest league-wide OPS since 1972, the year before MLB created the designated hitter to increase offense.

All of which means raw hitting numbers are much better than they first appear. For example, Jorge Polanco is hitting .248/.344/.398, which makes it seem like he’s off to a slow start. After all, his .742 OPS is 84 points below last season’s mark and 38 points under his career average. However, relative to the league as a whole his 123 OPS+ is in line with his career-best 126 OPS+ last season.

And the opposite is true for pitching numbers, because the league-wide ERA is 3.60, compared to 4.32 last season and 4.42 in 2020. Two years ago, the Royals’ current 4.52 ERA would have been right around league average, but right now it’s dead last in the AL, a half-run worse than any other staff. Context is crucial in baseball, and that’s never been more true than this season.

As for the Twins specifically, they rank No. 7 in runs scored per game and No. 3 in runs allowed per game in the 15-team AL. Average-ish hitting and strong pitching/defense, which is a good — albeit unexpected — recipe for success.

What can be done to keep Luis Arraez in the lineup every day? — Thomas S.

When healthy, Arraez plays every game started by a right-handed pitcher. He doesn’t play every game started by a left-handed pitcher because he’s a lifetime .249 hitter with a .635 OPS against them and he’s a below-average fielder. He’s no longer a left-field option, Polanco has second base covered and Arraez rarely is the Twins’ best third base, first base or designated hitter option versus lefties.

What’s your over/under for the number of at-bats Miguel Sanó will have in a Twins uniform for the remainder of his career? — Nick C.

My guess is this will be Sanó’s last season in Minnesota. His contract has a $14 million team option or $2.75 million buyout for next season, and I’d expect the Twins to choose the buyout. He’s likely out until at least July after knee surgery. It’s possible his recovery takes longer. It’s also possible by the time he’s ready to return, in July or later, the Twins will have already moved on.

Given all of that, I’d say a reasonable over/under for Sanó’s remaining at-bats in a Twins uniform is somewhere around 100. (He’s had 2,496 at-bats so far.)

What does the rotation look like if Dylan Bundy and Chris Paddack are out due to injury/struggles? — Reid L.

They began the season with a six-man rotation and Josh Winder has emerged as a seventh option, so the Twins can keep rolling along unless or until they’re down three of those seven starters. If that were to happen, they’d likely need to turn to someone like Cole Sands, although depending on when it happened it’s possible Jordan Balazovic or Simeon Woods Richardson could be ready.

Matt Canterino is another name to watch, although my guess is he’ll debut as a reliever if it occurs this season. Louie Varland, the reigning Twins minor league pitcher of the year, could be a second-half option. They’re also still hoping that Randy Dobnak can get healthy at some point this season, and Devin Smeltzer is another familiar name who could be a short-term rotation fill-in.

Why won’t they let Chris Archer go more than four innings? — Ryan G.

Archer has spent most of the past three years on the injured list, hasn’t thrown more than 50 innings in a season since 2019 and hasn’t thrown more than 150 innings in a season since 2017. Beyond that, he’s (predictably) struggled with his control at times this season and his OPS allowed has jumped from .661 in his first trip through a lineup to .907 in his second trip through a lineup.

It’s also worth noting that the average start across MLB this season has been 4.9 innings and 80 pitches, in part due to the shortened spring training and in part because that’s simply how starting pitcher usage has trended recently.

If Jhoan Duran stays healthy, will the Twins consider stretching him back out to be a starter? — Jackson P.

I’ll be surprised if Duran ever starts a game in the majors, save for some kind of weird opener-like situation that could happen randomly someday.

There wasn’t an official announcement, but the Twins essentially moved Duran to the bullpen at the beginning of spring training, well before deciding he’d be on the Opening Day roster. If he hadn’t made the big-league team out of spring training, Duran would have been in the Triple-A bullpen. Last season’s elbow injury likely put an end to the Twins viewing him as a starter.

Ken Rosenthal reported that Correa wants to stay. Can/would the Twins realistically pay him the kind of money he probably wants? — Joel S.

Apologies if this response comes across as impolite. That’s not my intention. However, we get a dozen questions like this one submitted for every mailbag. I don’t want to ignore them, so I’ve answered at least one version of the question in every mailbag. But it’s difficult to come up with new answers when nothing about the situation has changed. Correa likes Minnesota just fine, I promise.

Correa will also be highly incentivized to opt out of his deal after this season. That was true the day he signed the contract and it’s true now. It’s the reason for the contract’s unique structure in the first place. His decision isn’t going to hinge on whether the Twins win or lose the next game, or the next 10 games. It’s not going to be determined by the weather or his favorite local restaurant.

Trying to parse meaning in every Correa quote is just going to drive fans nuts.

Do you see the Twins’ farm system “drying up” because of all the recent call-ups? Also, does it matter if it does? — Mike M.

Fans should be warned that the Twins’ farm system is going to rank far lower next year because many of their top prospects will graduate to the majors and lose prospect eligibility. That doesn’t make the players any less promising, nor does it make the Twins’ future outlook any worse. Graduating prospects to the majors is the goal, after all. Having worse “prospects” isn’t always a bad thing.

Already this season Joe Ryan has graduated out of prospect status, and Duran, Winder, Lewis, Jose Miranda and Gilberto Celestino, among others, will likely do the same. That’s a good thing for those players and for the Twins. It’s a bad thing for their 2023 top prospect list and placement in farm system rankings, but that just shows why those are imperfect measures.

Hope you feel better soon, Aaron. — Daniel T.

This isn’t technically a question, but I just wanted to say thank you for the kind comments and tweets. I spent a couple of weeks on the COVID-19 injured list, with a handful of rough days, and had to miss my first Twins home games since joining The Athletic, but I’m finally feeling better and it’s great to be back at the ballpark. Looking forward to getting back into a writing groove.

Lost 3-2 in 10 last night to the Indians. They had Beiber on the ropes in the 4th but it slipped away. Smeltzer was shakey but only gave up 1 run. Pitching was good enough. China doll didn’t play again last night. Makes me wonder if he is on a every other day schedule? Afternoon game and then they fly to Oakland to play the A’s starting tomorrow night.

Buxton & Urshela homer in a 3-1 win today. Ryan was outstanding again.

here is something that continues to bug me. if the savior Buxton is on this torrid pace of 40 plus dongs, shouldn’t we have him batting somewhere other than leadoff? of all those dongs, shouldn’t we try to maximize baserunners? we have an amazing leadoff guy like Araez but he for some reason is not batting leadoff.

anyone catch Rocco arguing before getting tossed the other day? that was the most pathetic argument to an ump and it was borderline embarrassing. at least show like you are upset instead of holding your hands in prayer. someone show him how to argue like Gardy……please!

on a positive note, the pitching continues to be at the forefront and putting up the wins. great start by the pros and hopefully they continue to pile up wins versus the bottom feeders of the schedule.

eyeguy507 wrote:

here is something that continues to bug me. if the savior Buxton is on this torrid pace of 40 plus dongs, shouldn’t we have him batting somewhere other than leadoff? of all those dongs, shouldn’t we try to maximize baserunners? we have an amazing leadoff guy like Araez but he for some reason is not batting leadoff.

anyone catch Rocco arguing before getting tossed the other day? that was the most pathetic argument to an ump and it was borderline embarrassing. at least show like you are upset instead of holding your hands in prayer. someone show him how to argue like Gardy……please!

on a positive note, the pitching continues to be at the forefront and putting up the wins. great start by the pros and hopefully they continue to pile up wins versus the bottom feeders of the schedule.

Almost as pathetic as his press conference after the game where he explained (and tried to explain the rule) why the umpires got the call wrong and it was totally incorrect. He said the runner did the wrong thing by not getting up after being leveled – wow Rocco.

So Buxton being put on a pitch count. 100 games. What other non pitcher does this remind you of…yeah I can’t think of any either?

Lateral leg weekness or general soreness?

eyeguy507 wrote:

here is something that continues to bug me. if the savior Buxton is on this torrid pace of 40 plus dongs, shouldn’t we have him batting somewhere other than leadoff? of all those dongs, shouldn’t we try to maximize baserunners? we have an amazing leadoff guy like Araez but he for some reason is not batting leadoff.

i dont know this for sure it was just explained to me by someone else but i think this is the new analytics approach to baseball. You want your best hitters getting the most chances to hit. Im not an analytics guy though so maybe tbro or tbro2 can confirm

Joe Ryan is just what this team needs! Love his game and demeanor

crappie55369 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>eyeguy507 wrote:</div>
here is something that continues to bug me. if the savior Buxton is on this torrid pace of 40 plus dongs, shouldn’t we have him batting somewhere other than leadoff? of all those dongs, shouldn’t we try to maximize baserunners? we have an amazing leadoff guy like Araez but he for some reason is not batting leadoff.

i dont know this for sure it was just explained to me by someone else but i think this is the new analytics approach to baseball. You want your best hitters getting the most chances to hit. Im not an analytics guy though so maybe tbro or tbro2 can confirm

With Buxton it’s complicated because he plays part time so you don’t want him up there too often. The more AB’s he gets the chances increase of him hurting himself tho? I wonder if it’s Buxton telling the staff he can’t play every day or the staff making the decision for him?

The new age thinking is that you bat your best hitter in the leadoff spot so they get the most at bats possible. He won’t drive in anymore runs if he’s in the 3 or 4 spot because the team doesn’t get runners on base anyway.

As for the 100 games “pitch count”, I don’t think they’re are saying they are only going to play him 100 games. He’d have to play a lot less than he already is to keep him at only 100. That being said, it’s pretty embarrassing to see soft how this coaching and training staff has made the team.

He’s on pace for 115. He will have no problem getting down to 100 games. Hey if that is there goal it would still be the second most games he has played in his 8 years in the bigs. And most in 5 seasons.
Pretty impressive.

Another good game from Lewis. We need to keep this Cano guy up. He’s got some nasty stuff!

IF Buxton is making the decision on whether to play or not ( I suspect not) but if he is, the “prima Donna” label is gonna find him and tag him hard. It WILL affect the team dynamics if that’s the case.
Just play him – he gets hurt, he gets hurt. If we can’t field a winning team because of one player we got other problems.

Rumor is Correa back in the lineup tonight. Sounds like Miranda not Royce catching the uber to St Paul.

Miranda was over matched, he didn’t strike out a lot but he needed to go down and get the confidence back.

Royce needs to play everyday. As soon as Larnich and the other DL guys start coming back he will get sent down.

mahtofire14 wrote:

The new age thinking is that you bat your best hitter in the leadoff spot so they get the most at bats possible. He won’t drive in anymore runs if he’s in the 3 or 4 spot because the team doesn’t get runners on base anyway.

I’m not sure that’s exactly new age thinking.

Yes it is. When Aaron Judge was smoking the ball the Yanks put him in the leadoff spot. He’s not a traditional leadoff hitter. The Twins did the same with with Brian Dozier and Max Kepler during their career years. Not typical leadoff hitters. I’m not talking about best hitter in terms of average. Teams are now starting to use their most analytically “productive” hitter in the leadoff spot in terms of power and OPS.

The best kind of “ability” is availability.

We are still firmly in the honeymoon phase of the season with fragile players like Buxton. They’re just consciously choosing to prolong that honeymoon period. I’m in the boat of play him every day and what happens happens. It’s baseball. Let’s not confuse this with MMA or playing LB in the NFL for ****s sake. If holding him back is the master plan for pushing the Twins over the hump, best of luck. I’d never tie my reputation to that master plan as a manager. It’s just making fans of a mediocre team disgruntled.

buckybadger wrote:

The best kind of “ability” is availability.

We are still firmly in the honeymoon phase of the season with fragile players like Buxton. They’re just consciously choosing to prolong that honeymoon period. I’m in the boat of play him every day and what happens happens. It’s baseball. Let’s not confuse this with MMA or playing LB in the NFL for ****s sake. If holding him back is the master plan for pushing the Twins over the hump, best of luck. I’d never tie my reputation to that master plan as a manager. It’s just making fans of a mediocre team disgruntled.

I agree. Paul Molitor had an injury-prone reputation the first half of his career, but he played whenever healthy enough to take the field. Through continued experience, he learned how to still play hard without getting hurt. B2 isn’t going to learn that on a forced inning restriction.

If they are going to sit him now is the time. They are playing poor teams and can weather the storm with him only part time. Once they hit the meat of the schedule they will need him 100% of the time. The NBA started this whole “rest days” thing and it leaked into all sports. I would be pissed if I brought tickets to see a “star” and they took a home game off.

AMEN to Bucky, Fry Dog and Dutchboy.
With everything we “give” to have this team the least you could do is send some men out to play the game. IF they stub their toe, so be it but criminy, play them!

they sent Royce down. I wish Miranda would go get some confidence down in the minors and kept Lewis up here. He is an athlete I am sure he can play different positions.

The whole deal with signing Correa was to see if Lewis would be ready next year. If he is then Correa opts out and we move on with Lewis. If he can’t handle it they need to acquire a shortstop somewhere. Lewis provides the most help to the Twins by playing every day at shortstop in St. Paul. If needed he can be recalled but playing him in the outfield doesn’t do him or anybody any good in my opinion.