Gleemans mailbag from the Athletic.
By Aaron Gleeman 3h ago 2
Actual baseball games are being played, Opening Day is less than a month away and it’s been way too long since my last mailbag column, so let’s answer a bunch of your Twins questions.
Dustin L.: Who will have a bigger career impact on Minnesota sports, Alex Kirilloff or Kirill Kaprizov?
It should be noted up front that I’m less than three months into my career as someone who pays attention to hockey, having (apparently) picked the perfect season to start watching Wild games regularly. But this is a very fun question, so let’s take a crack at it anyway.
The Athletic’s great national MLB and NHL prospect experts, Keith Law and Scott Wheeler, placed Kirilloff at No. 7 and Kaprizov at No. 13 on preseason lists. It’s probably safe to assume Kaprizov has since improved his standing by quickly erasing any skepticism and proving he’s the real deal after years spent waiting for his arrival. So, they’re more or less equal on global prospect lists.
I ranked Kirilloff as the Twins’ best prospect as part of my annual top 40 list and concluded a lengthy write-up by saying: “If his power develops as hoped, Kirilloff’s upside is a middle-of-the-order MVP candidate. If he maxes out closer to the 20-homer range he’s already shown in the minors, Kirilloff still projects as an All-Star.”
With that as the baseline for a Kirilloff vs. Kaprizov comparison, I decided to settle this by bringing in an actual hockey and Wild expert: Michael Russo.
I presented Russo with the following three scenarios for Kaprizov’s career and asked him to choose the one he believes is most likely.
1. Very good regular and occasional All-Star
2. Perennial All-Star and occasional MVP candidate
3. Frequent MVP candidate and possible Hall of Famer
Russo picked No. 2, adding that he’d specifically go with “perennial All-Star with star potential” for Kaprizov.
I then tried to decide which choice I’d pick for Kirilloff and realized the best answer is probably 1.5, thus ruining this entire exercise. (I mostly just wanted to brag that Russo responds to my texts.)
Matthew M.: Why do front offices care so much about delaying service time when it isn’t guaranteed they will still be in charge of the team 6-7 years later?
Front offices, or at least good front offices, do many things to benefit the long-term health of an organization without assurances that they’ll be around to see the payoff. For instance, drafting high school players even though they may not reach the majors for five years. Or trading for far-from-the-majors Single-A prospects with higher ceilings rather than Triple-A prospects close to the majors.
There are no doubt situations where a front office feels so much pressure to win now, or has such little job security, that their decisions skew very heavily toward current value. But that can quickly turn into a mess. In the Twins’ case, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have tremendous job security, and they’ve worked hard to rebuild the organization with a big-picture, long-term view.
As for the Twins’ approach to service time as it relates specifically to Kirilloff this year, Dan Hayes wrote an excellent article about their thinking.
Steve B.: With the recent news of Royce Lewis’ torn ACL, do you foresee the Twins pivoting their future plans at shortstop?
By signing Andrelton Simmons to a one-year contract, the Twins cleared the path for Lewis to take over at shortstop in 2022, if not on Opening Day then by midseason. Lewis’ injury all but rules him out as an early 2022 call-up, as he’ll probably just be getting back into game action at Double A or Triple A by then, so the Twins could be in the market for a shortstop again next winter.
One silver lining is that next offseason’s free-agent shortstop class has the potential to be the best in baseball history. In addition to two of this offseason’s top shortstops, Simmons and Marcus Semien, potentially being back on the market after playing on one-year deals, elite shortstops Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story and Javier Báez are all impending free agents.
If the Twins decide Lewis is no longer their shortstop of the future, pursuing one of the big-name free agents shouldn’t be ruled out. Don’t bet on the Twins spending $200 million, but with so many high-end shortstops available, and a limited number of teams willing to spend big, one could end up in their price range. At the very least, it could make it much easier to re-sign Simmons.
Max S.: Any update on Simmons’ visa issues? Is he expected to be in camp soon?
No firm update yet, but he’s expected soon. Or at least the Twins don’t think Simmons’ situation is similar to the one that stopped Fernando Romero from showing up last spring (and summer). Or as Rocco Baldelli said last week: “I think it’s something that’s going to work out fine.”
Ryan B.: How does Lewis’ injury impact Nick Gordon for 2021?
It doesn’t, really. Gordon was likely already ahead of Lewis in line for a 2021 call-up, because he’s four years older, on the 40-man roster and has played at Triple A. Plus, while a prospect like Lewis would never be called up to fill a part-time role, Gordon finding a niche as a bench player is probably his best bet at this point.
Steve B.: What’s the target goal for Josh Donaldson’s games played this year?
We never saw what Baldelli had planned for Donaldson’s usage last year because the third baseman got hurt in the seventh game and was never really fully healthy again. But both Baldelli and Donaldson have talked openly this spring about the former MVP getting regular rest this season.
“I’m understanding that in order for me to be out there and help our team throughout the season, there’s going to have to be some adjustments made,” Donaldson said. “We’ve talked about it. We’ve had some great conversations about it.”
Two years ago, coming off a 2018 season wrecked by calf problems, he started 149 of 162 games for the Braves, winning Comeback Player of the Year honors. That’s probably the high end of his expected workload this season. One scheduled day off per week would leave Donaldson making about 135 starts, which seems like a reasonable baseline if he stays off the injured list.
Chris B.: Is Luis Arraez a legit option to play more than a handful of games at third base? I’m worried about Donaldson’s ability to stay on the field.
Definitely. Arraez is working primarily at second base and third base in camp, with some outfield reps also. He’s shorter and has less arm strength than most third basemen, but Arraez looked decent in 15 starts there as a rookie and did play there occasionally in the minors. My guess is he’ll be the main fill-in for Donaldson, but Miguel Sanó is taking some reps at third base again, too.
Greg K.: How different is the Falvey/Levine-era farm system with developing major-league talent compared to the second Terry Ryan era and the Bill Smith era?
I’ve gotten a lot of questions along these lines since posting my annual Twins top-40 prospects list. I’d love to provide an insightful answer, but it’s basically impossible to do so because the majority of the prospects acquired by Falvey and Levine — including their first draft pick, Lewis — haven’t even had time to reach the majors yet.
Ryan Jeffers, Jorge Alcalá, Brent Rooker, Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer are the prospects added by Falvey and Levine to debut for the Twins. Certainly the early results from that group are very encouraging, and targeting Jeffers and Alcalá as under-valued talent particularly looks good, but it’s way, way too early to make any real widescale evaluation.
This is as strong and as deep as any Twins farm system I’ve covered in 15 years of doing this, thanks largely to the work of their remodeled scouting and player development departments under Falvey and Levine. However, two of their top five prospects, Kirilloff and Jordan Balazovic, were drafted by the Ryan regime. And having a good, deep system only matters if it produces tangible value.
Prospects just take time. This is Year 5 of Falvey and Levine, and I think we’re finally going to see enough major contributions from prospects they acquired to start judging the work they’ve done. Within a year or two it should be obvious how well they’ve done bringing life back to the system, rebuilding the prospect pipeline while winning AL Central titles. But until then, the jury is out.
Michael F.: Theoretically, if veteran starters struggle to begin the season, how long would it be before the Twins bring up top prospects like Jhoan Duran or Balazovic for reinforcements?
Here’s how I’d imagine the Twins’ rotation depth chart looks right now:
Kenta Maeda
Right
33
Jose Berrios
Right
27
Michael Pineda
Right
32
J.A. Happ
Left
38
Matt Shoemaker
Right
34
Randy Dobnak
Right
26
Devin Smeltzer
Left
25
Lewis Thorpe
Left
25
If/when the Twins need more than those eight starters, it’s very possible Duran could emerge as an option. He’s their best, most MLB-ready pitching prospect, and the 23-year-old right-hander might have debuted at some point last season under normal circumstances. Matt Canterino could also be a midseason option, with Balazovic perhaps a half-step further away yet. They’ve stockpiled depth.
Dalton M.: If not José Berríos, who is the most likely candidate for a contract extension?
Berríos revealed last week his agent and the Twins have talked about a possible extension, but he also said the two sides haven’t gotten into any “numbers” yet. He seemed at least somewhat optimistic they could eventually get a deal done, but made it clear that nothing was imminent.
This offseason I ranked the 15 most valuable Twins long term, and 13 of them are under team control for at least three more years. Berríos and Byron Buxton, both in line to be free agents after the 2022 season, are the exceptions. They’ve approached Berríos about extensions in the past, but it’s possible the Twins see Buxton as much riskier given his injury history and speed-dependent value.
I’ve also written recently about why the Twins would be smart to offer Kirilloff a long-term deal before he’s even played one regular-season game in the majors, although there’s no indication that’s being considered. His agent, Scott Boras, has generally viewed the owner-friendly deals for young players as unappealing for his clients. It would eliminate any reason to manipulate service time, though.
Jeremy K.: Odds of finally seeing Buxton closer to the top of the lineup this year if he’s healthy and hitting the way he did last year?
Once upon a time speed and base-stealing ability were the main prerequisites for leading off, which is why Buxton has been perceived as a potential leadoff man for most of his career. However, overall hitting ability, and especially on-base skills, are now rightly how most managers decide on a leadoff man, and Buxton’s ultra-aggressive approach at the plate makes him an iffy fit there.
Buxton’s power development is highly encouraging. He’s slugged .534 with 23 homers and 37 doubles/triples in 401 at-bats since 2019. But his .299 on-base percentage and 104-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that time aren’t a great fit setting the table for the lineup’s best bats. He may still see occasional starts atop the lineup, but somewhere in the 6-8 range is a better use of his skill set.
Sean O.: What kind of stock should we put into any “best shape of his life” stories that usually come out this time of year?
BSOHL has become something of a punchline because, as you said, every spring in every camp there are stories about players arriving in great shape and, surely, headed for great years. Buxton and Lewis Thorpe have both checked the BSOHL box in Twins camp, which is always encouraging, especially relative to the alternative, but it’s not always meaningful.
It isn’t necessarily about being in the “best” shape, but health is the single most important aspect of spring training. Keeping players healthy is crucial, far more so than their batting average or ERA in exhibition games. Beyond that, while Thorpe adding 20 pounds of muscle may or may not matter, the fact that he’s feeling good and throwing harder absolutely does. That’s what I watch for.
Bryce B.: What do you see Rooker’s role being this season and beyond? Could he be a potential trade piece?
I wrote extensively about Rooker’s future outlook as part of my annual Twins top-40 prospects mega-article, so I won’t repeat all of that here.
Short version: He’s a right-handed slugger who projects to hit for poor batting averages because of a high strikeout rate. He can play first base pretty decently and left field and right field less decently. And at age 26, he’s ready to go right now. Rooker’s best role is probably as a platoon bat, facing mostly left-handed pitching while moving around at first base, left field and designated hitter.
It’s possible Rooker could become trade bait given the Twins’ plentiful outfield depth, but he likely wouldn’t hold enough value to be the centerpiece in a big deal. Plus, if the Twins have left-handed hitters Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach and Kirilloff on the roster at some point, having a right-handed slugger in the Rooker mold in a part-time role could be a nice fit.
Bruce B.: How might having the Triple-A team so close impact player movement?
I’m not sure having the previous Triple-A team in upstate New York ever kept the Twins from making moves, but it certainly involved red-eye flights that led to young players experiencing one of the biggest moments of their lives while exhausted. It’s possible having call-ups 15 minutes away may equal more roster churn, but the bigger benefit is easily being able to keep eyes and hands on prospects.
If anyone from the front office or major-league coaching staff wants to watch, say, Larnach play, they can now do so in person. And if they want Larnach to get acclimated to big-league life before calling him up, they can bring him over to Target Field for an afternoon to work with his future coaches, alongside his future teammates. St. Paul opens up all kinds of doors for Twins prospects.
Rick S.: What does the Twins management think of the FSN situation and reduced viewership? Many of us are tired of chasing the different services only to find out FSN is dropping them.
It stinks, but the Twins have no control over the situation. They’re merely one of many local sports networks purchased in 2019 by Sinclair Broadcast Group, which is now in carriage disputes with various streaming services. SBG wants a higher fee to carry their channels than the streaming services are willing to pay, and Twins fans get stuck in the middle of billion-dollar companies feuding.
Justin M.: Where would you set the over/under for career games for Willians Astudillo from here on out?
This is a tricky one. I’ll assume you mean total games, not just with the Twins.
Astudillo has played 95 career games in the majors so far, through age 28. He’s hit .294/.319/.428, league-average production that’s certainly good enough for a catcher to stick around for a while, with the Twins or elsewhere. However, it’s not clear the Twins trust Astudillo enough to play regularly at catcher, and he’s not above-average defensively anywhere else either.
I’ll set the over/under at 95.5 more games. But if we’re talking only games in a Twins uniform, I’d take the under.
Jonah E.: For a zillion dollars — Which player currently in the organization will have the most career hits in a Twins uniform from this point forward?
I’ll go with Kirilloff, followed by Larnach. Arraez is the best bet already on the MLB roster, although his uncertain role and knee issues cancel out some of his being a hitting machine. Lewis remains a solid bet despite being out for 2021. And despite being older, Kepler and Jorge Polanco are reasonable picks thanks to how long they’re under team control via extensions. Sleeper pick: Jeffers.
Dana W.: The playoff robes didn’t quite work last year for the Twins. If they make the postseason, what article of clothing should they go with?
Three words: Tom. Kelly. Zubaz.
