Twins 2021

Wally Pipp lost his starting position to Lou Gehrig after getting injured.

Another day, another extra inning loss.

Angels DFA Albert Pujols.

another one run loss and Buxton is hurt, this is turning very bad very soon into the season.

eyeguy507 wrote:

what a brutal game to watch! Sano def did not lose the game and took professional at bats which is good to see.

Had 5 professional at bats today……

mahtofire14 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>eyeguy507 wrote:</div>
what a brutal game to watch! Sano def did not lose the game and took professional at bats which is good to see.

Had 5 professional at bats today……

The team or Sano?

The guy Texas started today had been hit around like a Piñata prior to today. Kepler gets him right away and then nada…………………zilch.

Blame Sano all you want. I’m surprised he didn’t beat the ump with his bat at some of those strike calls. Not making excuses but when the strike zone is a foot off the plate at any given time, that is a problem. Like I said, if they don’t sweep Detroit, start the rummage sale! I did get a kick out of the fella waving the “fire rocco” sign.

Rocco wasn’t to blame today but he hasn’t made a good decision yet this season.

Yes Dutch I was talking about Sano and it was ALL sarcasm. Striking out 3 times on 9 pitches is a complete embarrassment.

And what difference does it make calling those pitches strikes when Sano will swing at the same pitch a foot outside on the next pitch anyway. The guy isn’t even looking at the ball. It’s embarrassing. I think they should send him to St Paul to get until he starts looking somewhat close to a professional hitter. I think James Rowson not being here has negatively effected Sano more than anyone. Rowson actually got him taking good at bats in 2019 and now he has regressed to complete cluelessness.

eyeguy507 wrote:

I did get a kick out of the fella waving the “fire rocco” sign.

Me too.

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May 7th, this didn’t take long.

The Minnesota Twins placed center fielder Byron Buxton on the injured list with a Grade 2 hip strain on Friday, and he will likely miss “weeks,” manager Rocco Baldelli said.

Buxton, 27, was named the American League’s player of the month for April and is leading the majors with a .772 slugging percentage and the AL with 10 doubles. He’s batting .370 with nine homers, 17 RBIs and five stolen bases in 24 games.

This is a developing story. More to come.

Dutchboy wrote:

May 7th, this didn’t take long.

The Minnesota Twins placed center fielder Byron Buxton on the injured list with a Grade 2 hip strain on Friday, and he will likely miss “weeks,” manager Rocco Baldelli said.

Buxton, 27, was named the American League’s player of the month for April and is leading the majors with a .772 slugging percentage and the AL with 10 doubles. He’s batting .370 with nine homers, 17 RBIs and five stolen bases in 24 games.

This is a developing story. More to come.

I actually feel bad for him at this point. The guy could be a superstar but just cannot stay on the field.

Eelpoutguy wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>eyeguy507 wrote:</div>
I did get a kick out of the fella waving the “fire rocco” sign.

Me too.

Had to make my first game back in over a year count fellas…….

Here is a longgggg piece by Gleeman in the Athletic summing up the Twinks relief pitching.

If you guys would rather have a link vs copy & paste let me know.

Be warned, these numbers are gory.

After another rough series for the Twins bullpen, including a late-inning meltdown Tuesday night in the first of three straight losses to the Rangers at home, Twins relievers have a 1-10 record and a 4.44 ERA this season.

No team has more relief losses. The bullpen ERA ranks 22nd in the majors, and the ERA actually undersells how much the Twins have struggled because their relievers have allowed an astonishing 60 percent of inherited runners to score. That mark is the worst in baseball and nearly double the 34 percent league average, with many of those runs inflating the ERA of starters rather than relievers.

Turning small messes into giant ones, the Twins’ bullpen ranks 29th in Win Probability Added, which measures how each plate appearance impacts wins and losses in the context it occurred. Serving up a grand slam in a game that’s already a blowout has no real impact, so WPA views it as inconsequential, but allowing an RBI single late in a tie game results in a massive WPA swing.

WPA’s baseline is average, so a reliever with a 0.00 WPA had a neutral effect on the team’s chances of winning or losing based on each situation’s historical probabilities. Last season, Boston’s bullpen had the American League’s worst WPA at -4.25, followed by Seattle at -3.50. Barely a month into this season, the Twins have a -2.36 bullpen WPA, almost 30 percent worse than any other AL team.

They’ve already lost four games in which their win probability was 94 percent or higher, including two losses after having a 98 percent chance to win based on historical odds. You’ve probably got those four losses seared into your brain. Alexander Colomé blew saves in the first three — Opening Day in Milwaukee, Kyle Seager’s homer on April 11 and the 13-12 catastrophe in Oakland.

2 HR FOR KYLE SEAGER AND 8 UNANSWERED RUNS FROM THE @MARINERS. 😳 PIC.TWITTER.COM/AOZLZSW7YS

— MLB (@MLB) APRIL 11, 2021

And the fourth was Tuesday night, at home against the Rangers, as the Twins turned a 3-0 ninth-inning lead into a 6-3 loss without Colomé even involved.

“We’ve played a lot of games where we’re playing winning baseball, we’re going into the last inning or two ahead, sometimes well ahead, and we have not been able to win those games,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “We have to win those ballgames. We just have to. We’ve got to find a way to make it happen in these late-inning situations and find a way to win these games.”

Here’s the ugly picture painted by the WPA numbers: If the Twins had instead gotten merely an average bullpen performance thus far, their record would be 14-16. If the Twins had gotten a good but not great bullpen performance, equivalent to their 2019-20 bullpen WPA, their record would be 16-14 and they’d be just a game out of first place in the AL Central. In reality, they’re 11-19.

And that doesn’t even take into consideration the potential domino effects of repeated late-game implosions, both in terms of team morale and in terms of leaving the bullpen in shambles for the following game or games.

“I mean, to be honest, I’ve never really seen it all kind of lumped together like this,” Baldelli said. “Any loss like this is tough, but when you have a bunch of them in the first month to start the year, it’s especially hard.”

In each of the previous two seasons, the Twins’ bullpen was one of the league’s best, ranking No. 6 and No. 4 in ERA and No. 3 and No. 5 in Win Probability Added. Looking at 2019 and 2020 combined, the only AL bullpens to top the Twins in both ERA and WPA were Tampa Bay and Oakland. Relief pitching was an obvious Twins strength, and the bullpen made a big positive impact.

2019-2020
4.02
+9.11
30%
25.7%
7.7%
1.2
This Season
4.44
-2.36
60%
24.7%
9.2%
1.6
And it was hardly a star-studded or high-priced group, as the Twins coached up in-house former starters Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey and Trevor May to new levels of success, turned scrap-heap pickups Matt Wisler, Ryne Harper and Matt Magill into key contributors, and added respected but inexpensive veterans Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard.

There were some missteps as well, with the 2019 July trade deadline deal with the Giants for Sam Dyson going particularly badly in every possible way, but for two years the front office and pitching coach Wes Johnson brought together a strong bullpen without big names or big investments. There was reason to trust the Twins had established an ability to create a quality bullpen on a budget.

That was put to the test in a huge way this winter as May, Clippard and Romo were free agents and the Twins decided not to re-sign any of them. They also cut loose reasonably priced non-free agent Wisler after he had a 1.07 ERA in 25 1/3 innings, bringing further bullpen change. That quartet accounted for more than half of the Twins’ bullpen innings thrown by right-handers in 2020.

And early on at least, it looks like the Twins were smart to move on. Romo has a 7.59 ERA for Oakland. Wisler has an 7.94 ERA for San Francisco. Clippard has been injured all season for Arizona. May has pitched very well for the Mets with a 1.74 ERA and 14-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 10 1/3 innings, but the Twins were never going to beat the two-year, $15.5 million deal he received.

They also appear fortunate to have avoided signing most prominent free-agent right-handers to whom they were linked this offseason. Trevor Rosenthal and Kirby Yates suffered major injuries before throwing a pitch for their new teams. Joakim Soria, Archie Bradley and Darren O’Day have also been injured. Greg Holland has been ineffective. Shane Greene has yet to even sign.

Of course, that the Twins likely would have regretted bringing back their own free agents or signing most of the bigger names on the open market can’t mask how poorly their actual bullpen moves have gone thus far. In particular, making the previously dependable Colomé their biggest relief addition of the offseason has backfired in historic fashion.

HERE’S THE ALEXANDER COLOMÉ PITCH THAT ENDED LAST NIGHT’S GAME.

ON A 1-1 COUNT WITH THE GAME-WINNING RUN ON SECOND BASE, COLOMÉ THREW AN 89.6 MPH CUTTER DIRECTLY OVER THE HEART OF THE PLATE — A LITERAL “MIDDLE-MIDDLE” PITCH.

WOULD’VE BEEN MORE SURPRISING IF IT *WASN’T* CRUSHED. PIC.TWITTER.COM/TP0KHRVT8T

— AARON GLEEMAN (@AARONGLEEMAN) APRIL 27, 2021

Signed to a one-year, $6.25 million contract with a second-year mutual option, Colomé was stripped of high-leverage duties three weeks into the season after allowing 15 runs in his first 8 1/3 innings. He has the worst WPA in baseball this season at -2.12, and he shattered the all-time MLB record for worst WPA in a reliever’s first nine appearances with a team.

Even if Colomé were to somehow turn things around and put together the best stretch of his entire career over the final five months, his WPA would likely still be negative for the season. And based on the fact that he’s essentially been relegated to mop-up duty, going unused in a bullpen-fueled extra-inning loss Tuesday despite being well rested, a quick turnaround seems implausible.

Hansel Robles was the only other veteran reliever the Twins added via trade or major-league signing this offseason. The Twins moved quickly to get him on a one-year, $2 million contract in late December. After allowing the game-tying homer in Wednesday’s loss, Robles has a 4.12 ERA and +0.30 WPA in 13 appearances, totaling more walks (eight) than hits allowed (five) in 13 innings.

And that was it. Faced with losing essentially half of the right-handed portion of their bullpen, the Twins acquired Colomé and Robles for a combined $8.25 million in guaranteed money and called it an offseason, banking instead on the continued development of in-house options Jorge Alcala and Cody Stashak, as well as their ability to unlock the next Wisler-style scrap-heap breakthrough.

Alcala has built on his effective 2020 rookie showing by posting a 2.92 ERA and 12-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 1/3 innings, but the Twins refuse to entrust him with anything resembling important work. He’s faced 144 batters in his Twins career and 75 percent have come in low-leverage spots, compared to just 7.6 percent in high-leverage situations.

Stashak has a 6.57 ERA and -0.14 WPA, and he was already sent back to the minors once. Brandon Waddell, a waiver pickup, has the most action from the scrap heap, posting an 11.25 ERA and -0.36 WPA in four outings. He took the extra-inning loss Tuesday and was sent right back to the minors. Colomé, Robles and Waddell are the only new relievers to appear in multiple games.

Beyond the Colomé mess, the next biggest factors in the Twins’ bullpen decline are Rogers failing to bounce back fully from last season’s issues and Duffey barely looking like his old dominant 2019-20 self. Baldelli’s bullpen plan was built around Colomé, Rogers and Duffey as the high-leverage trio, but Rogers has been merely decent, Duffey has been shaky and Colomé has been disastrous.

NEVER TELL US THE ODDS. #MAYTHEFOURTH PIC.TWITTER.COM/KNCQJKQQX3

— TEXAS RANGERS (@RANGERS) MAY 5, 2021

When the two best holdover relievers are no longer as trustworthy, the biggest offseason addition is so bad he’s been relegated to mop-up duties, and none of the inexperienced in-house options or scrap-heap hopefuls have stepped up, it leaves Baldelli with few palatable options. And it leaves the Twins’ bullpen as a massive weakness, after two years as a considerable strength.

To paraphrase the great Yogi Berra, it’s getting late early for the Twins.

Whatever margin for error the Twins may have thought they had in the AL Central race is gone and then some, and removing Colomé entirely from the relief mix or even getting him back to being an average, usable late-inning option won’t fix all that ails the bullpen. In fact, the combined WPA of the Twins’ non-Colomé relievers is -0.24, which would rank fourth-worst in the AL.

They desperately need Rogers and Duffey to be great again, and they need new high-leverage options to emerge. It’s possible Alcala can do that, if he ever gets an extended chance to work meaningful games. Also, the Twins spent all winter stockpiling intriguing Triple-A arms via waiver claims (Ian Hamilton), trades (Shaun Anderson) and minor-league signings (Derek Law, Juan Minaya).

Moving a top starter prospect to the bullpen is a potential source of short-term help, with Jhoan Duran, Matt Canterino, Cole Sands and Josh Winder being the most obvious candidates. They could sign the aforementioned Greene, the top remaining free agent, who had a sub-3.00 ERA three of the past four years. Trades are always an option, although 11-19 teams aren’t usually buyers.

Whatever the case, it’s becoming increasingly obvious that something needs to change in the Twins’ bullpen if they have any hope of climbing out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves. Baldelli needs better, more trustworthy buttons to push and strings to pull, the once-reliable veterans need to rediscover their old form, and Johnson needs to decide if Colomé is salvageable before it’s too late.

Donaldson sure is a nice addition, when healthy. The addition of power changes everything in the line-up construction. Keep him heathy and in the line-up and he will be a 30 hr guy. Even Polanco is starting to hit. Why can’t they bury anybody? When is Kiriloff back?

It would have been easier for Gleeman to just say they are not very good.

Ripjiggen wrote:

It would have been easier for Gleeman to just say they are not very good.

he must get paid per sentence. nobody would pay premium to read that they aren’t any good, he has to explain why.
starters are ok
relievers are trash
offense is trash
defense is ok
just brutal to watch and can’t play with the worst team in MLB. they will be fortunate to win 70 games

Anybody else trying to watch this fiasco? Talk about a long boring ass game. Detroit sucks and yet the Twinks can’t do anything with them. I’m done with them today, I can’t watch anymore of it.

eyeguy507 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Ripjiggen wrote:</div>
It would have been easier for Gleeman to just say they are not very good.

he must get paid per sentence. nobody would pay premium to read that they aren’t any good, he has to explain why.
starters are ok
relievers are trash
offense is trash
defense is ok
just brutal to watch and can’t play with the worst team in MLB. they will be fortunate to win 70 games

LOL

Sanow & Buxton have to go. Nobody wants Sanow but Buxton MIGHT bring a pitcher and possibly a closer if packed right. Neither can stay on the field, cut our loses and move on while they have any value at all.

I wouldn’t trade my Batboy for Buxton.

I agree, but he is having a good year, when he plays. This could be our last chance.

The 5th no hitter of the year was thrown on Saturday. It’s May. The most ever for a single season is 7. More proof that analytics is killing hitting and ruining the skill in the game…..

So last couple years the pitchers were crying that the ball was juiced.
Are the hitters going to cry now that they changed the baseball?

eyeguy507 wrote:

So last couple years the pitchers were crying that the ball was juiced.
Are the hitters going to cry now that they changed the baseball?

The ball was juiced last year. But the league average still dropped by 8 points from 2019. It’s already 10 points lower than last year so far this season. Anybody can hit a HR in this style of baseball. Hardly anyone can hit .300 anymore.

mahtofire14 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>eyeguy507 wrote:</div>
So last couple years the pitchers were crying that the ball was juiced.
Are the hitters going to cry now that they changed the baseball?

The ball was juiced last year. But the league average still dropped by 8 points from 2019. It’s already 10 points lower than last year so far this season. Anybody can hit a HR in this style of baseball. Hardly anyone can hit .300 anymore.

I think the truth is that the arbitrary target of ‘.300 batting average’ is no longer an important yardstick in measuring a player’s value. If .300 won championships or got you paid, you’d see more guys doing it.

Excluding the cheating Astros, you have to go back to the 2007 Red Sox to find a WS winning team with more than two .300 hitters on it. It just doesn’t predict or represent player or team success…at all.

Tbro? Is that you? All that argument tells me is that’s the last time anyone could actually hit worth a darn. You can have your HR’s I’ll take guys that can ACTUALLY HIT. You only score one run with a HR when you never have anyone on base. Check the Twins over the last 3 seasons.

Did any of you hear Baldelli say that if Kiriloff’s wrist doesn’t respond to treatment well SURGERY is an option????

WTF?????

Who has surgery on a sprain? This guy is out of his mind.

I read somewhere he has had wrist problems before? If they don’t do something this series against the White Sux he might be looking for a job. To bad the old school guys like Showalter & Bochey have been run out of the game.

Q- Do you play Polanco’s bat or sit his defense?

Dutchboy wrote:

Q- Do you play Polanco’s bat or sit his defense?

Sit him!!! I have been saying that for 2 years.