Twins 2020

Dan wrote:

For all they’re heralded, the Falvey/Lavine/Baldelli regime hasn’t accomplished anything more meaningful than Terry Ryan.

That’s the story of MN sports. Zimmer with the Vikes gets us a halfway decent team most years with a shot at the playoffs. That’s better than our dismal teams in the past, we get all excited. But then we quickly become deflated when we realize these coaches and these teams play an entirely different game come playoffs.

Last year the Twins were hitting a home run every other at-bat. Then they got to the playoff game and completely choked. Same thing this year.

We have to find a way to assemble teams that can move to that next level that the playoffs require.

I love how all the current coaches say that “all those previous playoff losses are in the past and there were different players against different opponents.” It’s a terrible response and they shouldn’t be selling it. Baldelli is now responsible for 5 of those 18 consecutive losses. Stop trying to deflect it it. He’s now a part of almost 30% of that record no one is proud of.

Dutchboy wrote:

“Figures don’t lie if liars don’t figure.”

Now, don’t get bent out of shape I’m not calling you a liar. What it means is you can twist any number to get it to read what you want it to read.

No twisting of stories here. Its pretty basic/common knowledge that hitting the ball in the air is generally better than on the ground.
Keep in mind, this also goes two different ways. Of the 81 pitchers that threw 50 or more innings this year, Christian Javier forced more fly ball outs than 80 of them. Getting fly ball outs is what he does.

All this said, dont get it twisted. I’m not defending the Twins in any way, shape, or form. Two of the most frustrating sporting events of any kind I’ve ever watched. I agree with most of you. Twins lineup is filled with guys that should be hitting in the 5-7 spots in an order. Its clear OBP is the issue. I just dont think the launch angle is at fault for it.

3rdtryguy wrote:

Barrios and Maeda (sp) both had good starts. No Show Sano and Buxton are our cancer, neither play half the season or come thru when needed.

Going only 5 innings used be considered a bad start. And I think this would support the anti-analytics crowd that they should have left both of them in, particularly Berrios in a win or go home scenario. I agree with Jack Morris who said the more guys you bring in, the more likely one of them has a bad day. When your 2 starters gave up 1 earned run and 4 hits in 10 innings, you should let them keep rolling! Wouldn’t have mattered without some offense, but still…

I agree Werm. Almost makes you think Rocco doesn’t really manage so much as Falvey and Levine. Didn’t they kind of run Moliter out for that reason as he would use the info but still go with his gut sometimes. Almost seems like the scripts are written and when this happens he needs to do this or if this scenario happens then do this.

tbro16 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Dutchboy wrote:</div>
“Figures don’t lie if liars don’t figure.”

Now, don’t get bent out of shape I’m not calling you a liar. What it means is you can twist any number to get it to read what you want it to read.

No twisting of stories here. Its pretty basic/common knowledge that hitting the ball in the air is generally better than on the ground.
Keep in mind, this also goes two different ways. Of the 81 pitchers that threw 50 or more innings this year, Christian Javier forced more fly ball outs than 80 of them. Getting fly ball outs is what he does.

All this said, dont get it twisted. I’m not defending the Twins in any way, shape, or form. Two of the most frustrating sporting events of any kind I’ve ever watched. I agree with most of you. Twins lineup is filled with guys that should be hitting in the 5-7 spots in an order. Its clear OBP is the issue. I just dont think the launch angle is at fault for it.

But it is. It’s so heavily preached as being the almighty concept that it has killed many hitters OBP because they either hit a home run, strike out, or hit a pop fly. Two of those result in outs. Ground balls at least have a chance to find holes in the infield. The common teaching used to be “hit line drives.” That clearly isn’t how the hitters are swinging anymore. It’s HR or bust. Ground balls at least have a small chance to find holes in the infield. Now more than ever with the shifts……….

I don’t enjoy searching through numbers like you do Tbro so I’ll ask you to do me a favor. I’d honestly love to know what the average mlb OBP was 20 years ago compared to now. Or even 10 for that matter. I think it’d be interesting to see if analytics and launch angle have improved it or not.

Did anyone else see the top of the 9th for the Yankees last night? Walk, weak seeing eye single, high chopper to pitcher for infield hit, K, sac fly to tie the game, RBI single up the middle for the lead and win. Not much exit velocity or launch angles in that 2 run inning.

Some statistics that support my argument that the bullpen is a joke here.

Last two postseasons for the Twins Pen:
22 IP 17 earned runs. And our manager wants to use this bullpen for half the game….what a joke.

All this analytics talk reminded me I haven’t watched the movie Moneyball in awhile… Thanks for the suggestion!

Cruz will sign with LA or NY next year. I suggest shopping Rosario to the Mets for Syndegaard. throw in Buston to sweeten the deal. Kiriloff is good enough to play now and should have been up earlier but we all know this teams history of bringing up players before they reach their years of service window and the arbitration eligibility timeline.

blank wrote:

Did anyone else see the top of the 9th for the Yankees last night? Walk, weak seeing eye single, high chopper to pitcher for infield hit, K, sac fly to tie the game, RBI single up the middle for the lead and win. Not much exit velocity or launch angles in that 2 run inning.

You’re using the Yankees as an example against EV and launch angles? Did you see how they scored their other 20 runs in the series? Keep trying..

mahtofire14 wrote:

I don’t enjoy searching through numbers like you do Tbro so I’ll ask you to do me a favor. I’d honestly love to know what the average mlb OBP was 20 years ago compared to now.

I only like searching through numbers when it makes me money or when it proves one of you jokers’ opinions wrong

Knock yourself out mahto (you’re welcome to join Dutchy):

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2001&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

Dutchy will pass. Nothing you can post will change the way I enjoy and understand the game.

With you & I it’s not a Ford vs Chevy thing. More like Pie vs Granola. I’m a big Pie guy, makes me feel good.

tbro16 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>blank wrote:</div>
Did anyone else see the top of the 9th for the Yankees last night? Walk, weak seeing eye single, high chopper to pitcher for infield hit, K, sac fly to tie the game, RBI single up the middle for the lead and win. Not much exit velocity or launch angles in that 2 run inning.

You’re using the Yankees as an example against EV and launch angles? Did you see how they scored their other 20 runs in the series? Keep trying..

I’m not using them as an example because I know they thrive on those, but I thought it was interesting that they ended up winning the game without it.

Thanks for that link TBro. From what I can tell, not much has really changed other than fewer SB, higher K%, and lower wOBA since the ’00s. It is interesting that in the top 12 years for Runs, only two seasons occurred in the ’10s.

I am a White Sox fan. If the Twins are looking for a new manager we have one we could give you cheap (or free).

tbro16 wrote:

I only like searching through numbers when it makes me money or when it proves one of you jokers’ opinions wrong

I’m going to take that as you can’t prove me wrong! I formally consider the analytics argument settled!

mahtofire14 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>tbro16 wrote:</div>
I only like searching through numbers when it makes me money or when it proves one of you jokers’ opinions wrong

I’m going to take that as you can’t prove me wrong! I formally consider the analytics argument settled!

Someone get TBro a Pirahna’s Shirt Stat (pun intended)!

mahtofire14 wrote:

Some statistics that support my argument that the bullpen is a joke here.

Last two postseasons for the Twins Pen:
22 IP 17 earned runs. And our manager wants to use this bullpen for half the game….what a joke.

Twins pen was awesome this season. Last year’s pen should not be lumped into any statistical category with this year’s pen. That’s a bit misleading.

JoeMX1825 wrote:

It’s time for the Twins management to finally step upto the plate and spend $$ on a legit #1 starter

Twins tried that with Madison Bumgarner. He was 1-4 with the Diamondbacks this season with a 6.5 ERA.

Maeda was a legit ace this season, and it didn’t change the Postseason results.

Dan wrote:

For all they’re heralded, the Falvey/Lavine/Baldelli regime hasn’t accomplished anything more meaningful than Terry Ryan.

They’ve won the division the last two seasons and put together the team that hit the most home runs in the history of MLB.

I’m not saying they’ve done much more than Ryan but I think they’ve shown enough early to have some optimism on where the team is headed. If nothing else they seem to be good enough BS’ers that we’ll be in the mix for a few more free agents than we would be with a guy like Ryan.

I thought they were going to be a colossal disaster. That they’ve been this successful this soon might have me seeing things too rosy since we all ultimately know the problem with the organization land squarely on the ownership.

It’s the new wave of baseball. Get the Ivey League guys to bring the numbers into the game and run everything by the numbers. Meanwhile it’s the old school Yankees (Cashman, Boone) the Dodgers with Roberts, Astro’s with Baker and Marlins with Mattingly that are still chugging along in the play-offs.

The numbers should and do play a part but you need some old school common sense and intuition also to be successful. Twins have no old school guys left that I can see.

A’S @ 25TH, Marlins @ 27th, Rays @ 28th prove you don’t need to spend big to compete. They are in the 2nd round of the play-offs. Cubs, Angels, Blue Jays, Rangers aren’t. It’s not so much how much you spend but where and when you spend it.

Kinda early to get into battles over what the Pohlads can and will spend vs what they should & won’t spend.

Bass Thumb wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mahtofire14 wrote:</div>
Some statistics that support my argument that the bullpen is a joke here.

Last two postseasons for the Twins Pen:
22 IP 17 earned runs. And our manager wants to use this bullpen for half the game….what a joke.

Twins pen was awesome this season. Last year’s pen should not be lumped into any statistical category with this year’s pen. That’s a bit misleading.

Actually what’s misleading are the surface statistics of the bullpen. They started out exceptional which saved their season long stat line because the last 40 games they weren’t. Not to mention when your best two arms in the bullpen blew up, its not something I’d consider as awesome.

Lavel has a interesting list of Twins who won’t be back next year including: Garver, Rosario, Gonzalez, Cave, Adrianza, Odorizzi, Hill, Clippard, Romo, Thorpe

If he is correct there won’t be a bunch of movement from the currant team amongst the top players. Maeda, Berrios, Pineda would go into the off season as the top 3 starters.

La Velle has just enough insight to get things right once in a while, although I suspect much of his info is fed to him right from the Twins brass. As a reported he doesn’t “break” much interesting news.

Dutchboy wrote:

The numbers should and do play a part but you need some old school common sense and intuition also to be successful. Twins have no old school guys left that I can see.

I agree with you on that for sure.

A good example would be starting Dobnak in game two in NYC last year over Odirizzi. Still one of the dumbest baseball moves I’ve ever seen. They’re lucky it didn’t go even worse than it did.

Or pinch running Buxton after he didn’t play and watching him get tagged out on the helmet for the final out this year.

Baldy doesn’t seem to have great gut instincts.

Dutchboy wrote:

Lavel has a interesting list of Twins who won’t be back next year including: Garver, Rosario, Gonzalez, Cave, Adrianza, Odorizzi, Hill, Clippard, Romo, Thorpe

I think everyone on that list will be gone but Garver. He had an injury and you can’t give up on a catcher that had a year like Garver did after one 60 game, injury plagued year. Jeffers will probably be a good hitter, but I’m not ready to have him start.

They gave up on Pressley
They gave up on Graterol
They gave up on Escobar

Giving up on Garver will just be another name.

Not sure I would put Graterol on that list considering they were able to get their best starting pitcher in that trade.

The pitcher we got in that trade was moved to the bullpen every year at play-off time.

Maeda isn’t Kershaw or Buehler. Maeda is our ace not because of his talent (although he was able to beat up the central) but the lack of talent from our other starters.

Dodgers didn’t miss a beat without him & Ryu.

I should add I think Graterol actually went to Boston and Boston sent him to LA in the Betts deal. I might be wrong on that.