Give or take a bit, that’s a comfortable estimate. Of course, it’s tough to prove unless we’re lucky enough to see an up-close pic of him this spring.
The key to field judging beard-length on a live turkey or on a photo of a turkey, is to assess which position the turkey is standing in. Your avg. 2-3 year old bird with a beard up to 10″ hangs at or just below the bottom of the breast when the bird is standing in the upright position as this one is.
Most people that claim to see birds with a “beard that drags on the ground” only see the bird moving with head forward/down. Many toms have beards that drag in this position. Beard length is difficult to assess while the bird is in the strutting position, which is also when most people see birds being still enough to determine beard size.
Hopefully he shoots it, but no matter what, it’s a quality bird!
Joel