MAGIC 40 degrees.
Here is the Jay Ford Thurston formula for estimating water temperature and if it is fishable. Water must be 40 degrees or warmer to trigger fish to eat.
Tomorrow at 10am it is expected to be 28. Add 48 and divide by 2. Water estimate of 38. Too cold.
Tomorrow at noon it will be 46. 34 + 48 = 84 divide by 2 = 41. Fish should be getting active!
Does JFT’s formula work? Jay is writing about spring creeks which by definition are going to have a more constant temperature.
46 + 48 = 94
94/2 = 47
Where did the 34 come from??
Yeah screwed that up. Lucky to break 40. Let’s say 28 early am. 28 + 48 = 76 divide by 2 = 38. Too col for activity. Better mid to late morning.
Guess what? I’m not going to listen to this advice and start early anyway. Probably be fishing st sunrise. Fish 7-10. Then my man pass runs out.
I’ve caught several nice fish on blades/plastics in March with sub 40 temps…must have been lucky…. 
Caught plenty of fish through the ice so i’m guessing this is just someones opinion. Maybe a southern thing but not true where ice forms or no one would ice fish.
32 + 48 + my boat + me = No elmo movies and a line in the water. Fish biting is just a bonus!
The formula relates to spring creek trout streams. I went early anyway just to make the wife happy. Only caught one trout this morning in three hours. It was 24-28 out. Fished 7-10. Water was icy cold. I did not have a thermometer but guess it was close to freezing wading in it.
Of course the fish started biting and caught the one at 9:45 right when my time was about to run out. Should have STARTED fishing when I left. Did not follow the rule. However I did not see a lot of fish either. Maybe my creek went belly up or maybe it is just too early.
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