Sorry, but no, it really isn’t oversimplifying anything. The use of terrriffs as a way to force manufacturing across a broad range of products back to the domestic side has never been proved to work.
If you’re referring to using tariffs to try to force Canada and Mexico into more effectively dealing with criminal activity on their side of the boarder, I’d say this is an expensive and questionably effective way to try to accomplish that. Americans pay higher taxes to force Canada to put more drug dealers out of business? Wouldn’t it be smarter to try other routes first?
Like I said above, I don’t agree with getting into pissing matches with our trading partners and allies. It’s not a great long term strategy but we’ll see if it gains us any leverage which I think is what Trump is looking for.
It is an oversimplification if for one reason the tariffs have positive impacts in certain areas. Sure, taxes may increase generally but certain sectors of the economy gain tremendous benefits from tariffs. US steel manufacturers are a great example which I care tremendously about because most of my in-laws are on the iron range and work in the mines.
I copied in that analysis because you are correct that on a macro level the tariffs aren’t beneficial. This is why I believe the tariffs will likely hold for China but not the others. I’d also be surprised if we don’t create more beneficial trading agreements with other countries like we have done S Korea in the past.
The challenge for the US is we are, and always will be, a net importer. While that may create some leverage with our spending power it also creates disadvantage where we need to import goods and have few options.