Superior Ice (Duluth)

Tom Sawvell wrote:

I think a bigger concern is when a whole sheet of ice lets go, and by a sheet I am talking about anywhere from a football field sized piece to maybe as much as a half a square mile. These big floes can move at an incredible rate and if the coast guard or other facility gets called in to pluck people off its only people that leaves. The equipment stays and ends up wherever the ice takes it.

Don’t you mean 100 square mile sheets?

I think the nearest coast guard helicopter is in Bayfield. Not sure where the nearest cutter is. The sheriff or fire department probably has an airboat though.

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biggill wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Tom Sawvell wrote:</div>
I think a bigger concern is when a whole sheet of ice lets go, and by a sheet I am talking about anywhere from a football field sized piece to maybe as much as a half a square mile. These big floes can move at an incredible rate and if the coast guard or other facility gets called in to pluck people off its only people that leaves. The equipment stays and ends up wherever the ice takes it.

Don’t you mean 100 square mile sheets?

I think the nearest coast guard helicopter is in Bayfield. Not sure where the nearest cutter is. The sheriff or fire department probably has an airboat though.

What does one Lake Superior ice fisherman say to the other???

———

It’s gettin’ deeper

That’s why I always bring my box of spoons.

Looks like sustained cold weather in Duluth, but with it comes wind. Even at night the weather channel is calling for some 15 to 20 winds. The most calm is 5 to 10. I’d guess the odds of getting on the main lake next weekend aren’t great?

Never fished Superior or Lake trout before. It would be neat to try if the opportunity is there.

Tucker

It has a lot to do with the wind direction. Offshore winds are going to blow the ice crystals out to sea before they can form a sheet. It also pulls warmer water up from below. Dead calm is ideal but the fact that the lake is 30-40-50 degrees warmer than the air, it can create its own air currents. Either way the water is cooling which makes it more likely to freeze.

The wind this afternoon through tomorrow are going to be ene but as you said 15-20 mph. This will blow any ice out on the main lake into Duluth. It could be what is neede to lock it in but it could create a huge problem of piles of ice making it inaccessible.

It’s like buying a powerball ticket and demreaming about what to do with the winnings. Unfortunately, the odds of good ice are still pretty slim.

There’s a portable set up just out from the elbow on the harbor ice. What got wind-blown yesterday looks to have re-froze again.

The canal and waters in front of the canal at Duluth are fairly well frozen over but the flag at the tug in front of the museum is showing winds coming in straight off the lake. With this huge polar front coming I can’t see it not affecting the wind up there.

With regards to this big winter blast that’s coming this way the weather map shows snow now in Mankato or close to it. Sure wish it would take a super hard left.

Looks like its going to be a cruel joke. Get real cold then south winds on Saturday.

The light south wind isn’t concerning. It’s the 15-25 mph NW that you should be worried about.

There’s a huge piece of open water along the breakwater today. There is one portable off the end of the inner most ore dock. Looks like a guy casting from the breakwater too.

biggill wrote:

The light south wind isn’t concerning. It’s the 15-25 mph NW that you should be worried about.

I’ve already resigned myself to not fishing it, winds changing too much. That NW is going to break enough stuff up further out for everyone to go floating away on Saturday when the South wind finally breaks the near shore sheet free.

FWIW, you can already see pretty huge heaves on the horizon.

I look for an soon to be aired episode of IDO with James, Koontz and PJ Vick in the hovercraft, trolling on a sheet of ice for giant lake trout.

drive over to Ashland, WI. There were quite a few people out on the ice yesterday.

Just went down by the lake at Brighton Beach, open water everywhere.

Frozen over yesterday. Haven’t looked today, but it’s windy.

This should help paint a picture.

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Its all gone

Only upside is open water coho fishing during the warmup

biggill wrote:

This should help paint a picture.

I’ve heard whitecaps are more likely to freeze than calm water, confirm/deny?

philtickelson wrote:

I’ve heard whitecaps are more likely to freeze than calm water, confirm/deny?

Is that a shot at the elderly?

Is the theory that Whitecaps stir the water and cool it faster than if cold was left to slowly penetrate the depths?

I never felt wind was good for making ice, even on small lakes. This is the 1st year I closely watched the ice formation on Lake Superior so forgive me if I’m not correct – but I have to think on a water body the size of superior, high winds aren’t conducive to ice formation.

curleytail wrote:

I never felt wind was good for making ice, even on small lakes. This is the 1st year I closely watched the ice formation on Lake Superior so forgive me if I’m not correct – but I have to think on a water body the size of superior, high winds aren’t conducive to ice formation.

I’ve watched it pretty closely from afar for about 4 years now. I’ve never seen walkable ice in Duluth before mid January. Obviously the reason being is because it is holding too much heat energy to freeze.

We all should be aware that moving air has an exponential ability to absorb and sweep away heat energy. With such a large mass of heat energy, it can only help to cool the water. Making ice is a whole different story.

Lake Superior, like any other lake at this point (right before freeze up) will gradually warm as you go deeper until you reach it’s densest temp, 39F at the bottom.

In the warm months when the water temp is cooler than the air, you’ll see warming at the top of the water column and the wind will blow that warm water all over the lake. On the upwind side of the lake, you’ll see the coolest surface water because it’s being pulled up from below.

I suspect this happens in reverse in the winter. The cooler water and ice get blown away while the warmer water is pulled up.

Just a theory but it makes sense in my head.

If you watch the satellite images and the tower cam, you can clearly see ice crystals forming on this side of the lake and see them getting blown offshore.

This lake puts on quite the spectacle if you care to pay enough attention.

Here’s a satellite image from a few days ago showing the ice crystals forming and getting blown offshore.

You can also see a gap between the ice crystals and the shore. I suspect this is the warmer water boundary.

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This is ice.

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Sorry bud but you’re wrong. You can’t see the forest for the trees. You need to see it from a higher perspective to understand what’s happening. If you watch the satellite images daily you’ll see that it is newly formed ice that grows and flows and not break-offs.

Here’s a pic from last Friday obviously much closer than the satellite. You can clearly see the ice sheet that broke away and in between you’ll see the ice forming. I may have more pics on my computer at work that are taken hourly that will show it’s progress.

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How do you explain this? The clouds clearly show the wind direction. The slush ice being formed has a clear barrier from shore, it clearly wasn’t fresh fallen snow, and you see a mysterious river down the middle. That’s warmer water where ice isn’t being formed. You also can see how the ice tapers off to nothing toward deeper water.

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Think he mistook the ice for the shore. Anyway think I’ll have to drive East if I want Superior ice.

Now the ice is back, love this lake.

Quite a lot of ice from what I see on the cameras. Now the question is will it withstand the 15 to 25 mph wind this afternoon until the wind starts laying down around 3 pm? And if so will the cold weather be cold enough to make good walkable ice by Friday? Looks like my only free day this weekend is going to be Friday so wondering if the conditions will be too little too late to make Friday work.

We will see.

Tucker

Modis looks promising too! There might be a chance after all….

Obviously this blue part here is the land, that would mean…*faints*

I got dibs on fishing with Pat!