With the threads going about the next week’s “warm-up”, I figured it’s never too early to get a discussion going about Spring flooding. I completely realize Winter is nowhere near over and that a lot of cold weather is still in the works, but recent talks has me at least day dreaming of Spring.
The river currently is at 10.24′ in Wabasha (action stage) and 10.21′ in Lake City which is only 2′ from minor flood stage. To add a reference point, that’s a good 3.5′ above what most would consider “normal pool”, and even greater than what would be considered “normal pool” for winter. I realize we do not have the snowpack currently that last Winter brought, but the river is also a lot higher now than it was last winter at this point and there’s a lot of time to add snow yet.
The attached image is probability data from the Wabasha gauge that is set to be updated in the next week. Keep in mind the graph does not show probability based on the current levels. These predictions will go up significantly with levels currently 3+’ higher than what they base the original predictions off of. My gut tells me that if we get any significant snowfall in February or late winter rain events, we will be back at similar levels as last year. Another record snowfall in February could push our flood risk and levels even higher than last year. For those not familiar with Pool 4, last Spring was a mess until July with high water the rest of way.
Here’s to a lengthy dry pattern that lasts until April 
Attachments:
WABM5.SSTG_.prob_.weekint.gif
