Someone Has to Do It – Ice Predictions?

Not looking good at all for Red in 3 weeks.

Mid December for Red would be good for me. I’ll be pheasant hunting in SD and then would like to hit Red for walleye

buckybadger wrote:

The 10 day forecast does not look friendly for ice in most of the state. This week has a cool spell followed by a significant warm-up again. I’m showing 63 degrees this weekend on Pool 4.

There’s lots of time left, but I think even an average start to the ice season may now be a stretch for most areas. Water temps have quite a ways to go. I doubt people will be standing on ice enjoying Thanksgiving leftovers without a significant pattern change. A few buddies and I do an early ice trip each year to either LOTW or URL. We’re meeting to evaluate what we’re doing in a couple weeks when things are a bit clearer.

Sitting in the boat with a couple left over turkey sandwiches would be just fine with me.

Red has ice on it today.

Bearcat89 wrote:

Red has ice on it today.

Just skim?

Yes but it’s a start

So your saying there’s a chance.

Bearcat89 wrote:

Red has ice on it today.

You musta spilled your cocktail.

56 degrees, mostly sunny, with a 9mph wind on Saturday at Waskish followed by another 56 degree day Sunday. Skim ice anywhere isn’t surviving that.

URL is a different monster in how early it can freeze, but I still think we are definitely “behind” where we are most years for things locking up. Thanksgiving is 3 weeks from today (and 18 days from this warm Sunday). Mother nature better get to work.

buckybadger wrote:

56 degrees, mostly sunny, with a 9mph wind on Saturday at Waskish followed by another 56 degree day Sunday. Skim ice anywhere isn’t surviving that.

URL is a different monster in how early it can freeze, but I still think we are definitely “behind” where we are most years for things locking up. Thanksgiving is 3 weeks from today (and 18 days from this warm Sunday). Mother nature better get to work.

I’m aware lol. I was just saying it’s getting close. Doesn’t take much there to make enough ice to pound on those walters

15 day forecast does not look good for Red and I think the ice tends to be better when the ice sets up later. My guess is Red will be first weekend December and Metro will be walking on 2 weeks later. I would not mind a mild winter again.

someone usually walks on UPRL around turkey day and it’s usually Tyler from Bearpaw. if there is 3 inches of clear ice, there will be walkers. its 60 in SE MN this weekend and 30 a week later…..ice will form pretty quick on that shallow lake in a few weeks so my prediction is the 27th on UPRL and 3 weeks later for me in SE MN.

eyeguy507 wrote:

someone usually walks on UPRL around turkey day and it’s usually Tyler from Bearpaw. if there is 3 inches of clear ice, there will be walkers. its 60 in SE MN this weekend and 30 a week later…..ice will form pretty quick on that shallow lake in a few weeks so my prediction is the 27th on UPRL and 3 weeks later for me in SE MN.

We’ve been there Thanksgiving day the last 7 or 8 years

My trip to Red is the 11th of Dec., so I vote for then

The 10 day forecast is starting to look a little cooler for Northern MN. Next Friday, Saturday, and Sunday have no sun, cooler temps, but a decent breeze following the big weather system coming through. If things settle down into next week with temps in the low-mid 30s during the day and 20s at night…some of that now absent skim ice will be back and growing

I’m still banking on Thanksgiving

I’m seeing a significant change on the horizon. 4-5″ of snow followed by a cool down should cause water temps to crash up North. From there on it will be 100% about the wind.

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Sounds like it’s time to go duck hunting

Rogers on Red just posted an update stating they are hoping for walking on Dec 3rd. It does seem we are behind last couple years this year.

Yesterday I spoke with Beacon Harbor. She said there’s no ice now and doesn’t expect it for Thanksgiving weekend. They are booked full for the following weekend in there motel rooms.

I meant to say they don’t expect to get out on Thanksgiving weekend. Sounds like they agree with December 3rd. But we’ll see

Temperatures look good next week for URL and small lakes in Northern MN, but the wind forecasts aren’t favorable. Monday-Thursday have winds at or above 10mph (even most nights) across that region of MN. The predicted winds don’t really lay down consistently until the Friday & Saturday the 19th-20th.

Last year the big resorts opened to foot traffic November 25th on URL. Interesting to note, the lake had waves and mainly open water through November 15th…so there was a 10 day window between near shore freeze-up and widespread foot traffic. It’s still not out of the picture to have a similar timeline to last year, but time is ticking

Sunday night looks to be in the teens and light wind. Could start building ice with that. It will just depend what the warmer temps and wind do on Tuesday.

Wind wind go away…

Staring this coming Monday, there’s no temps above 32 degrees or winds above 10mph forecasted for a larger part of Northern MN. This should do it on a lot of the smaller sheltered lakes and hopefully cap most of Upper Red by Thanksgiving. When it does cap over, that water could be fairly dirty following this wind. I know a lot of the resorts use the second weekend in December as their first “on-ice” bookings in smaller 4 man shacks where they shuttle you out with wheelers. I’d think that is still very possible for them to make if we avoid major warmups.

My relative who has a cabin near Deer River said he feels confident he will be on the ice on Thanksgiving after dinner chasing some panfish with 2.5-3″ of ice. He sticks to very small sheltered lakes early and goes through every precaution possible.

For us down here on Pool 4, it’s going to be a while yet. Duck hunters are running into the smallest amount of skim ice before sun-up…so water temps are there. I think the weekend of December 10th is probably the most realistic expectation for walkable ice in many spots here. It is generally about 10 days after everything is initially capped to having 3″ of ice on the backwaters (if weather stays consistent with average temps).

Dang deer river isn’t far from my stomping grounds. Good to here. We are 27 miles north of deer river

This wind is nuts! Gonna bust whatever ice there was off anything. Cold an snit tho.

Brought all the gear w for a work-cation but the only thing I’ve been able to use a rod for yet is a straight line and to fish some wire thru conduit.

Nick,
Wadda doin taking jobs way up nort. Relatives?

I’m hoping for 5 inches of ice ASAP. Then it can just stay at 5 inches. When you only can walk out ice fishing is just special. Once the campers hit the lake I’d rather be elsewhere.

I’d be curious to see some detailed science on how ice forms and by what factors.

Temperature obviously, depth, and wind. Also geese can be a problem. I only care about walkable ice and I’m hoping to ice camp on shallower lakes in a colder part of the state in two weeks or so. Ice will form slow with Temps in the low 30/20s but teens at night. I want that first below zero cold front for a couple days!

Eelpoutguy wrote:

Nick,
Wadda doin taking jobs way up nort. Relatives?

I’m finding it’s a great way to ditch town but still make money and take a breather.

My view all week.

Local pulltabs are eating into the profits tho…

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