Someone Has to Do It: Ice Predictions

I did not know that BK. Interesting.

I’m sure the data is out there somewhere, but do you think it will impact ice all the way down to Lake Pepin? …or is that temperature change negated by that point?

I would for sure expect it to change water temps and conditions closer to the source of warm water (the dam area and right beneath it)

Things were a lot different 4 years ago today

Attachments:

1. 

   Screenshot_20231115-0914032.png
   

last week while up at deer camp…..just north of Bowstring…saturday morning of opening day the cabin lake was iced over………not all of it, but by saturday nite it was gone. think up there the water is close but need some cold temps…and no wind.

plans are 2nd weekend of dec with decent ice.

by the way spearing opens today!!!!!

buckybadger wrote:

I did not know that BK. Interesting.

I’m sure the data is out there somewhere, but do you think it will impact ice all the way down to Lake Pepin? …or is that temperature change negated by that point?

I would for sure expect it to change water temps and conditions closer to the source of warm water (the dam area and right beneath it)

Unless we get some ugly cold weather, Pepin will not freeze any time soon. That’s a tremendous volume of water to refrigerate cool enough to get surface ice.

Back waters yesterday were still above 42 degrees. We saw some shale ice about three weeks ago that lasted about a day. This years’ warmer water has probably helped to hold perch in their fall locations longer than normal and we haven’t seen a perch yet in our backwaters crappie spot.

Jimmy Jones wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>buckybadger wrote:</div>
I did not know that BK. Interesting.

I’m sure the data is out there somewhere, but do you think it will impact ice all the way down to Lake Pepin? …or is that temperature change negated by that point?

I would for sure expect it to change water temps and conditions closer to the source of warm water (the dam area and right beneath it)

Unless we get some ugly cold weather, Pepin will not freeze any time soon. That’s a tremendous volume of water to refrigerate cool enough to get surface ice.

Back waters yesterday were still above 42 degrees. We saw some shale ice about three weeks ago that lasted about a day. This years’ warmer water has probably helped to hold perch in their fall locations longer than normal and we haven’t seen a <strong class=”ido-tag-strong”>perch yet in our backwaters crappie spot.

Correct. Pepin isn’t going to have ice for a long time. The backwaters can add it quickly with protection from the wind, but a change in wind direction on Pepin can bust up a couple inches of ice and reset things in a hurry even once temps drop.

I was referencing more the long-range predictions with my question. If both reactors are shut down through December, would that result in “more” ice from the head of the lake and up towards the dam having a bit more floating ice…or is that temperature change unimpactful that far downstream?.

There were record numbers of people ice fishing Lake Pepin last year and regular issues with wheelers going through, not to mention the Darwin-athon near Frontenac with all the idiots parking on the ice and sinking it.

Weather is looking good next week

I live in Bemidji and have fished Red every year on T Day since I’ve moved hear five years ago. It will be mid December before there is fishable ice up here. We are still happily trolling for muskies open water.

B wrote:

I live in Bemidji and have fished Red every year on T Day since I’ve moved hear five years ago. It will be mid December before there is fishable ice up here. We are still happily trolling for muskies open water.

I think you are going to be shocked by how fast safe ice comes on that shallow puddle provided the wind doesn’t blow. It would not surprise me if it’s taking wheeler traffic before December 1st. After Monday it’s twenties and teens up that way. That is ice-making weather 24/7.

Bass Pundit wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Jaker wrote:</div>
I live in Bemidji and have fished Red every year on T Day since I’ve moved hear five years ago. It will be mid December before there is fishable ice up here. We are still happily trolling for muskies open water.

I think you are going to be shocked by how fast safe ice comes on that shallow puddle provided the wind doesn’t blow. It would not surprise me if it’s taking wheeler traffic before December 1st. After Monday it’s twenties and teens up that way. That is ice-making weather 24/7.

Yup. I sgree. 1 week of that and no winds and we will be fishing

Thanksgiving is about as early as possible this year. Based on the 10 day, shallow lakes aren’t too far away now.

Let’s hope that’s the case!

They are predicting an El Niño winter this year. Which should result in warmer than nornal temps and less moisture then normal for us in the upper Midwest anyway.

Not sure how that plays out on when lakes will ice up.

Michael Best wrote:

They are predicting an El Niño winter this year. Which should result in warmer than nornal temps and less moisture then normal for us in the upper Midwest anyway.

Not sure how that plays out on when lakes will ice up.

That figures. I bought a snowmobile this summer.

Michael Best wrote:

They are predicting an El Niño winter this year. Which should result in warmer than nornal temps and less moisture then normal for us in the upper Midwest anyway.

Not sure how that plays out on when lakes will ice up.

Hopefully not enough to get trucks out and just keep a solid 8” of ice all year

ive been watching the weather closely. Ive got a Red Lake trip planned to camp on the ice Dec 14-18. Last week i tore a leg muscle coaching the kids basketball team and will be on crutches for the foreseable future. needless to say im really hoping they will be allowing quads or half tons out by then.

Anyone out there make ice spikes for crutches

crappie55369 wrote:

ive been watching the weather closely. Ive got a Red Lake trip planned to camp on the ice Dec 14-18. Last week i tore a leg muscle coaching the kids basketball team and will be on crutches for the foreseable future. needless to say im really hoping they will be allowing quads or half tons out by then.

Anyone out there make ice spikes for crutches

Just have the other guys drag you in a sled

crappie55369 wrote:

Last week i tore a leg muscle coaching the kids basketball team and will be on crutches for the foreseable future.

If you self medicate (see Bourbon thread) correctly you can be off those crutches by this weekend! JK, that sucks bud, hope you get better quick.

As for me I still have deer tags that need punching, so the real cold stuff can wait!

BigWerm wrote:

If you self medicate (see Bourbon thread) correctly you can be off those crutches by this weekend!

Re-injury as a result of excessive fun is a real concern of mine lol. Worth it

Michael Best wrote:

They are predicting an El Niño winter this year. Which should result in warmer than nornal temps and less moisture then normal for us in the upper Midwest anyway.

Not sure how that plays out on when lakes will ice up.

I follow Alaska weather closely because, well, it usually ends up in MN. El Niño has been predicted and it’s clear the opposite has happened in Anchorage so far this winter. Record snowfall amounts this past week. You can read about the El Niño prediction and what’s already happening in the 49th State here, https://craigmedred.news/2023/11/13/tough-to-predict/

crappie55369 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>BigWerm wrote:</div>
If you self medicate (see Bourbon thread) correctly you can be off those crutches by this weekend!

Re-injury as a result of excessive fun is a real concern of mine lol. Worth it

What It is usually only a couple days after walking they allow wheelers, once there is 4 inches of ice it gets to 5-8 pretty quick.

Smaller lakes by me have 2-2.5”. Wont be long tell they are walkable.

Couple metro shallow water lakes froze over. Battle Creek and Pigs Eye (P2 backwater)

-J.

I think it’s supposed to be almost 50 degrees later this week.

When you guys say ice on pool 4 backwater, is that safe walking ice? or like the two old guys that walk out on the strips’ of plywood????????

Ice on the south end of Mille Lacs, Wahkon Bay specifically. Was out past Half Moon early yesterday.
Wind has been just howling, like 25 MPH+,since mid morning. Leading edge of the ice was rolled up I guess 1/2 mile.
Saw 2 hardy souls out trying though. They got to hoofing in when you could see open water.

Keppinhiemer wrote:

When you guys say ice on pool 4 backwater, is that safe walking ice? or like the two old guys that walk out on the strips’ of plywood????????

The boards come out during ice out as the shoreline pulls back and there’s still 6+” of decent ice minus the 8’ of span of shallow water or muck to get on it.

There’s nothing walkable anywhere around Pool 4. Most places are 0 ice minus some overnight skim ice on cold calm nights that blows off or melts the next afternoon. There won’t be anything walkable this week or the coming weekend either. We might just take a flat bottom out to some of our favorite early ice spots next weekend

Sadly it seems winter has started. A lot of ice formed in Northern MN yesterday. Grand Rapids area, a lot of lakes iced over in the last day or so.

gim wrote:

I think it’s supposed to be almost 50 degrees later this week.

That would be awesome. Take advantage of every warm-ish day left.

I saw pictures of 2″ of clear ice in backwaters up here. They were fishing, but it might have been a joke.

I’ll be throwing tip ups out on the channel over here Wednesday. I could today, last night wr had 3 inches of ice as far out as I wanted to walk on one of the channels last night. But do to wind I won’t be doing that tonight. Wednesday I’m thinking looks good to sit on share in the truck and throw out some pike and bass rigs