Smoke & Mirrors 2022 edition

Netguy wrote:

The Gophers don’t have a chance.

This is pathetic. 38-10 just into the fourth quarter. Pretty cool that the entire stadium is rocking white though.

A little $25 bet on Penn State -5 bought a few crank baits for the box. I’m kicking myself for not going heavier.

Penn State is a real solid team that plays well at home, while Minnesota is a real average unranked team. I knew MN’s offense would struggle, but there were a ton of blown coverages and guys getting out matched physically with the run defense.

This game confirmed what everyone knows – the Big 10 West is terrible. Penn State might be the third best team in the East.

They needed to give the kid QB a chance. Open up the offense he can sling it.

3rd dud in a row for this team, pretty disappointing after dominating Michigan state in week 4. I was thinking they would go 10-2 or 9-3 and compete for the west, but here we are. A few observations from last night:

– We got beat up from again in the trenches, both on offence and defense
– There is a SEVERE lack of talent and the WR position. This was at least probably an average Big 10 WR core with Autmen-Bell playing, but without him there is no one to make plays other than the big TE.
– Mo is still great; I’m not all that excited for the running game next year of Potts is the starter.
– Please for the love of god keep playing Kaliakmannis. I know PJ will play Tanner if he is healthy, but the season is basically over, and the freshman can sling it. I think the future is bright for him.
– I still think the defense is solid, pretty tough to stop a top-15 team when your offence goes 3 and out every time.

Fleck said they have been out of rhythm the last 3 games and it’s on him. Break out the Gershwin album and play that in the locker room all week.

mnfisherman18 wrote:

– Please for the love of god keep playing Kaliakmannis. I know PJ will play Tanner if he is healthy, but the season is basically over, and the freshman can sling it. I think the future is bright for him.

100%! I didnt even realize he hadnt started a game since 2019. There was a covid year in there but he was also out a season (senior) due to injury.

A little humble pie might be a good thing for PJ and his team going forward. For all the top recruiting classes they supposedly have, I don’t see a lot of top end talent developing. I really thought they would take a step forward this year, but the opposite is happening and a huge missed opportunity for the program. I agree go with the young QB, and whoever else they think is important to the future. The 6-7 year players have had their chance, and it didn’t happen.

x2 to what Werm said.

I’m a Badgers guy first and foremost, but the reality is that both UW and the Gophers are in similar situations. They’ve swung and missed on their season goals and should ultimately be turning the page to guys who will be back and evaluate what you have. The Gophers are one of the “oldest” teams in college football by roster with all these medical redshirts, redshirts, covid years, etc.

I think the next two years (after this one) will and should be an evaluation period for PJ. You don’t have to look far back on threads, I’ll be transparent in that I’ve been a fan of what PJ has done with the program, but the high-ish expectations of this year combined with the fact that upper-level mediocrity will win the Big Ten West and the Gophers likely won’t win it, and add in his abysmal record when trailing going into the second half (can’t remember what it is, but it’s bad) and at this many years into his tenure (6 is is?) it’s time to evaluate his ceiling and time as a coach.

I’m definitely not going from “I trust & have confidence in this guy” to “Rose Bowl next year or he’s fired.” To me a huge factor next year and possibly the year after is that he’ll have a QB other than Tanner Morgan that he recruited and made the decision to go with. Tanner and PJ’s careers almost marry up and it’ll be interesting to see what we can do with someone else under center.

IMO the turning the culture around, building the program, “it takes time” phase is over and we’re into “these are all your kids and staff, you’re established in the Big Ten, we need to see you at the top of the West with only one loss or so in the division every year.” That puts us into year 8 and if the overall record at that point isn’t a whole lot better than the Kill/Claeys or Glen Mason eras we might need a change.

**Editor’s note: Nothing but respect and best wishes to Tanner Morgan. When you see some of the stories on him, the teams he’s been on, going through empty-stadium pandemic seasons, his dad dying while playing, yet seeing him injured on the sideline and pumping the team up and being the first one on the field to talk to the backup QB, the guy’s a class act and a real leader. Hope good things happen for him after he’s off the field.

Yeah, I am a huge fan of Tanner. He looked like his 2019 self early this year, but that was obviously against poorer teams. He just hasnt looked good since the MSU game. I had high hopes with Ciarraca back, but it seems the play calling has gone way too conservative. I realize we lost our best WR, but Wright and Spann Ford can take on more load as well as a couple others. There have been a lot of drops too which hurts.
Its really disappointing losing to Purdue, Illinois, but Penn State not so much.

CaptainMusky wrote:

but Penn State not so much.

I agree, there’s no shame in losing to a nationally ranked Penn State team on the road in prime time on national TV. The issue for me is how they lost. They weren’t even competitive. They got completely blown out.

gimruis wrote:

The issue for me is how they lost. They weren’t even competitive. They got completely blown out.

This is completely true. They didnt seem to even give Kaliakmanus a chance to succeed. I hope they open it up more for him because when he was in mopup duty early on he showed what he is capable of and Tanner cannot do what he can.

Dan wrote:

IMO the turning the culture around, building the program, “it takes time” phase is over and we’re into “these are all your kids and staff, you’re established in the Big Ten, we need to see you at the top of the West with only one loss or so in the division every year.” That puts us into year 8 and if the overall record at that point isn’t a whole lot better than the Kill/Claeys or Glen Mason eras we might need a change.

Here’s the winning percentage for recent U coaches: PJ .629, Klaeys .579, Kill .500, Brewster .333, Mason .529, and Wacker .291. You have to go back to Bernie Bierman in the 30’s-40’s to find a coach with a better career winning percentage. Also, PJ has the best season since 1961. This year is a disappointment, no doubt, but PJ is literally the best thing to happen to Gopher football in decades, which isn’t saying a lot about U history, but also says a lot about the job he’s done thus far.

Also, Penn State is a great example. They have a very good coach, recruiting, consistently in the top 25, huge fan base, 90k+ seat stadium etc. etc. and they still can’t get back over the hump to National Championship relevance. The easy part is building a respectable program, the tougher part is taking that next step to Championship (conference then national) level.

No comments on the big home shut out victory from Saturday huh? I wasn’t able to see any of it but it sounds like there will be an emphasis on the running game from here on out. Pound the ball with Mo.

Obviously Rutgers is pretty terrible, but the Gophers have been playing pretty terrible too lately against some better opponents. Up next is a road tilt in Lincoln.

I’ll talk football, why not. Didn’t see any of the game. I don’t have a strong take on who to go with at QB. I understand wanting to get reps in with the younger QB (I’ll get around to spelling his name next year). Fast-forward a year and 2023 me will probably wish he got more reps. They could theoretically finish 9-3 and make a decent bowl and if you want to win you probably go with Tanner. My old high school coach always said you shouldn’t lose your job due to injury. It’s a nice philosophy but we all know that happens. As I’ve mentioned previously, Tanner is one quality guy, a great leader, and has been through a lot with this team. Maybe with someone else I’d feel different, but with all he’s been through on this team I’d feel bad telling him we’re benching him for the shiny new model. Tough call either way.

I saw some reactions about how PJ was playing not to lose versus playing to win. Like I said I didn’t see the game so I can’t say much, but 31-0 isn’t a close game. And nowadays with higher-powered offenses and passing games swinging for the fences more I think holding a team to zero is more impressive than running up the score.

Either way good to get that win convincingly, true tests are coming up. They’re favored by something like 11 on the road in Nebraska but the MN sports fan in me is still nervous about that one. Then we’ve still got Iowa and Wisconsin. We’ll see what comes out of this stretch.

It did seem like a pretty conservative offensive play calling. Granted BigTEn play is far better than their non-conference opponents, but they dont seem to have as dynamic offense as those games.

BigWerm wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Dan wrote:</div>
IMO the turning the culture around, building the program, “it takes time” phase is over and we’re into “these are all your kids and staff, you’re established in the Big Ten, we need to see you at the top of the West with only one loss or so in the division every year.” That puts us into year 8 and if the overall record at that point isn’t a whole lot better than the Kill/Claeys or Glen Mason eras we might need a change.

Here’s the winning percentage for recent U coaches: PJ .629, Klaeys .579, Kill .500, Brewster .333, Mason .529, and Wacker .291. You have to go back to Bernie Bierman in the 30’s-40’s to find a coach with a better career winning percentage. Also, PJ has the best season since 1961. This year is a disappointment, no doubt, but PJ is literally the best thing to happen to Gopher football in decades, which isn’t saying a lot about U history, but also says a lot about the job he’s done thus far.

Also, Penn State is a great example. They have a very good coach, recruiting, consistently in the top 25, huge fan base, 90k+ seat stadium etc. etc. and they still can’t get back over the hump to National Championship relevance. The easy part is building a respectable program, the tougher part is taking that next step to Championship (conference then national) level.

I’ll start by saying I’m not “Anti-PJ”. I think he’s done a nice job and has helped to make MN Football relevant. His rah-rah style isn’t for me, but he has an audience of young men who listen and follow his lead. Let’s not act like he’s lightyears ahead of other coaches from the U of M though. Winning % is a statistic, but it is a function of your schedule and who you play. By some measures, he’s very average when comparing winning % to strength of schedule. My opinion is that he wins the games he should, loses against tougher competition, pulls off the occasional upset, lays the occasional egg, and is collectively an average college coach.

PJ’s winning % in his time at Minnesota = .629

Gopher Strength of Schedule by Year:

2017 = 57th toughest
2018 = 40th toughest
2019 = 22nd toughest
2020 = 41st toughest
2021 = 28th toughest
2022 = 39th toughest

Let’s compare to a coach who was fired…playing in the same exact division of the Big 10 West (Paul Chryst)

Chryst’s winning % in his time at Wisconsin = .720

Badgers Strength of Schedule by Year:

2017 = 14th toughest
2018 = 10th toughest
2019 = 5th toughest
2020 = 12th toughest
2021 = 10th toughest
2022 = 31st toughest

…keep in mind the later was fired

Chryst was losing in his easiest season of 2022… does Wisconsin fire/lose good coaches prematurely ? History says yes.

big_g wrote:

Chryst was losing in his easiest season of 2022… does Wisconsin fire/lose good coaches prematurely ? History says yes.

It was ugly, but I did NOT support canning the guy midseason. He’s never missed a bowl game and was 6-1 in them. If you want to do a formal evaluation and let him go in the offseason – fine. He didn’t deserve to lose the job when he did though IMO.

I’ve attended clinics put on by PJ, Chryst, Kill, Gary Anderson, and Bielema. I also had the chance to have a few beers with Bielema as he is close with some of my relatives (long pipeline of recruits from their teams who went his way). Of that group, they all were unique. PJ clearly was the rah-rah guy who offered little in discussion or detail about scheme through his breakout sessions. Chryst was the polar opposite. He wasn’t offering up suggestions on practice format, team goals and themes, or uniform combinations. He’d tell you how to false key a trap play from any formation though. Bielema seemed to be a more outgoing, confident version of Chryst who definitely knows the game as well. Kill is and was easy to root for from a coaches’ perspective too. Anderson rubbed me the wrong way from the very beginning and seemed to be talking down to most he was communicating with. He was a bit arrogant thinking his system would instantly better UW Football, when he was dead wrong. Different strokes for different folks in the coaching world…

PJ is a solid coach, but when you hear about him being mentioned for every “big” job it’s a bit of a laugher. If I wanted one guy to take the guys who were already rostered and win a game, he’d not be my first choice. However, I understand that coaching and scheme is only one element. He’s got a niche for getting 17-20 year old boys to tune-in to what he’s saying. That alone is tough.

PJ and whoever ends up leading the ship at Wisconsin are going to have their work cut out for them. After next year, the Big 10 is going to look very different. Getting to a New Year’s Bowl game will likely get more difficult due to in-conference competition. No more hiding in the Western side of the Big 10 with the teams being added and a new format likely coming.

You’re not really trying to say PJ isn’t the best coach since Bill Belichick are you?

He is what he is. Just another coach to guide the program enough to sell tickets and keep the kids out of jail. We should be satisfied he doesn’t embarrass the program.

Wisconsin does and should have higher standards than the Gophers. I would have given Chryst another year, but that’s college football in 2022 for you.

The gophers have proven they can beat down weaker opponents. They would likely beat each of bottom 1/3 teams in BigTen, probably win 60% against the middle 3rd, and lose most of their games with the top 1/3. My guess is they go 3-1 in the last 4 games. If we can beat both Iowa and Wisconsin in the same year for once I would chalk this season up as a success even with the disappointments at Purdue and Illinois.

buckybadger wrote:

Let’s not act like he’s lightyears ahead of other coaches from the U of M though.

But he is light years ahead of all the previous regimes, save maybe Music City Bowl Mason. Kill/Claeys is debatable, and not really worth getting into. None of those guys were playing tough non-conference games or super tough schedules either, and often the schedule is determined before the coach is even there (Alabama in 10 years anyone?!?). The simple fact is the Gophers are not a premier football program, and probably never will be, but we have a coach now who can sample it periodically like 2019 which is about the best you can expect at the U.

Wisconsin is a much different, and much better program. I agree with you about Chryst, and that he should not have been fired. He may be a great technician coach, but that never translated to the QB position, which is basically what got him fired. They had defenses and run games that were as good as anyone in the country, but nobody at the most important position.

What is crazy is what Bielema has done at Illinois, especially this quickly. Like at WI and AR I don’t see it lasting long term, but he improves programs on field product immediately.

Huge college football Saturday coming up.

Tenn at GA

Bama at LSU

Narrowly avoided a another bad loss to Nebraska today, thank god Kaliakmanis came in for the second half. The offence looks way better with him under center, they absolutely need to keep playing him. Iowa and Wisconsin both looked good today, will likely be close games with each down the stretch.

Yeah, the new guy at QB needs to finish out the season…something to look forward to next year. I think I heard Autmen Bell is coming back for his 10 year…lol..

With a home win over the 1-8 Northwestern Wildcats, the Gophers have improved their record to 7-3 and 4-3 in the Big Ten. Iowa beat Wisconsin and Purdue beat Illinois, setting up a 4-way tie between Illinois, Iowa, Purdue, and Minnesota at 4-3 in the Big Ten west.

Their two biggest rivals are the only games remaining on the schedule now. At home versus Iowa and at Wisconsin. I thought this team would go about 8-4 overall and I would say that will be pretty accurate once this is done. For as bad as Iowa’s offense was earlier in the season, it has gotten better recently. They have scored 24 points or more the past 3 games.

sooner or later ole dutchy’s gonna be a believer!!!!!!!!!

Tyler Nubin with anther interception today. I think he (Nubin), Mo Ibrahim, and their center get drafted for sure.

glenn57 wrote:

sooner or later ole dutchy’s gonna be a believer!!!!!!!!!

They are 4-3 in conference with a strength of schedule of 83 out of 131 teams.
I think it will be “later” Glenn.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/minnesota/2022-schedule.html

The Iowa Hawkeyes come to town on Saturday for a rival game against the Gophers at the Bank. Kickoff is slated for 3pm and the forecast is cold with a stiff NW win at 25 mph. It will be a national telecast on FOX.

PJ’s Gophers are favored by 3 points as the home team. Fleck has never beaten Iowa during his tenure here. The bronze pig, Floyd of Rosedale, is on the line. The last time Minnesota beat Iowa was in 2014, and they are an abysmal 1-9 in their last 10 games versus the Hawkeyes.

The Gophers still have an outside chance of winning the Big Ten West. They would need to beat Iowa and Wisconsin, and have Purdue and Illinois lose. The Gophers haven’t beat both Iowa and Wisconsin in the same season since 1990.