Sell Off

Anyone take advantage of today’s sell off to get into a stock at a ‘reasonable’ price?

It may go lower. Right now COVID-19 is all hype. Death rate outside of China is 0.7% Influenza death rate is higher. The market is reacting, not due to the death rate, but to the shut down of Chinese companies due to quarantines. No product, No money. I am waiting to see what happens. I have an eye on a few stocks to buy. Not yet tho.

Don’t let a crisis go to waste…

DTW

FYI. Corona Virus was renamed COVID-19 to document it. COVI is for COrona VIrus. discovered D ecember 2019 hence COVID-19

DTW wrote:

FYI. Corona Virus was renamed COVID-19 to document it. COVI is for COrona VIrus. discovered D ecember 2019 hence COVID-19

SARS2 is what they are calling it.

DTW wrote:

It may go lower. Right now COVID-19 is all hype. Death rate outside of China is 0.7% Influenza death rate is higher. The market is reacting, not due to the death rate, but to the shut down of Chinese companies due to quarantines. No product, No money. I am waiting to see what happens. I have an eye on a few stocks to buy. Not yet tho.

Don’t let a crisis go to waste…

DTW

Exactly, let the media take care of the propaganda they feed us.

Buy low.

When the government is sealing it’s people into their homes with boards and plywood it isn’t all hype. They obviously know something about this we don’t. My guess is this was a weapon that has been released(either purposely or accidentally).

A measurable market correction was in store…the Coronavirus was just the match to light the fuse. I don’t see it being long term, but would not be shocked to see lackluster markets from now through early summer.

munchy wrote:

When the government is sealing it’s people into their homes with boards and plywood it isn’t all hype. They obviously know something about this we don’t. My guess is this was a weapon that has been released(either purposely or accidentally).

<div class=”ido-oembed-wrap”><iframe title=”Coronavirus Outbreak: Households in China Sealed off in Order to Forcibly Quarantine People” width=”850″ height=”478″ src=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/T5iSz5-0wMg?feature=oembed&#8221; frameborder=”0″ allow=”accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture” allowfullscreen=””></iframe></div>

It sure suppressed the Hong Kong protest. You have to wonder if this was a government release to keep the people in control?

Conspiracy theories aside, there are two things that are true. A market correction was in order. yes, global economies will be impacted by both the virus and people’s reaction to it.

Didn’t take advantage yesterday but strongly looking today. Saw Dow was off another 1% before I got some quality IDO time.

I added to a few positions today.

“He who is greedy is always in want”, but that said, I’ll be curious where the bottom is. I favorably dollar-cost-averaged a few positions today, but am trying to keep an eye on anything that resembles a recovery (whenever that will be) in an attempt to capitalize. I’m also keeping some dry powder for the election; I could see a dip if a dem wins. Anyone else considering that strategy?

shady5 wrote:

I’m also keeping some dry powder for the election; I could see a dip if a dem wins. Anyone else considering that strategy?

Why would there be a dip if a dem wins? This massive bull market started under a dem after the economy started falling apart during the closing days of the last Republican administration. Political change is always priced into the market long before the election and presidents have almost nothing to do with the economic cycle except that they all claim credit for a good economy and blame a bad economy on the other party.

Nothing is cheap enough to put me in a buying mood. A 2% decline in a 27k DOW doesn’t shave much real money off of sky-high stocks.

I’m also losing my enthusiasm for picking single stocks. Anyone else feel that way?

It used to be fun and lots of action, but everything now is just so damn expensive on a per share basis. I got in on the Facebook IPO at $42, but now it’s tough to get all revved up about buying more even if it does have a downward slide of a few bucks. I know a % gain is a % gain, it’s just to me not as much fun to go in and buy 3 shares of this and 1 of that…

Also, anybody else remember Warren Buffett’s “beat the S&P 500 challenge”? Yeah, well, I sure as heck didn’t beat it over the past 10 years, even with some really timely buys like FB, I also bought enough underperformers to prove the Oracle right yet again. Anyone else honestly beat the S&P over 10 years?

Grouse

TheFamousGrouse wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>shady5 wrote:</div>
I’m also keeping some dry powder for the election; I could see a dip if a dem wins. Anyone else considering that strategy?

Why would there be a dip if a dem wins?

I definitely don’t have any special insights, but the dems’ messages don’t seem to be founded in economic growth and the markets are fickle. Anecdotally, I wouldn’t be surprised if there is some initial pull back from the trend of accelerated gains that started in the major markets immediately after Trump’s win. I doubt any dynamic resulting from the election will be long lived, though.

And yep, index and mutual funds aren’t that exciting, but individual stocks are like picking the right horse.

I’m 100% cash, when the music stops I want a chair… Too much market euphoria for too long combined with too many clouds on the horizon for me: Freight recession, new vehicle sales declining, subprime credit card delinquencies all time high, subprime auto loan delinquencies spiking, brick and mortar bankruptcies, corporate debt approaching the cliff of becoming the next sub prime crises, student loans $1.5 Trillion pending crisis, yield curves inverting. Good luck to those of you staying in the market!

eyefishwalleye wrote:

I’m 100% cash, when the music stops I want a chair… Too much market euphoria for too long combined with too many clouds on the horizon for me: Freight recession, new vehicle sales declining, subprime credit card delinquencies all time high, subprime auto loan delinquencies spiking, brick and mortar bankruptcies, corporate debt approaching the cliff of becoming the next sub prime crises, student loans $1.5 Trillion pending crisis, yield curves inverting. Good luck to those of you staying in the market!

There are some impending bubbles that will burst. Banks are right back to issuing mortgages for expensive real estate to less than ideal customers, sub prime lending is exploding as mentioned, student loan debt will often be defaulted on as tuition costs skyrocket, recreational loans are increasingly common, and younger generations have shockingly small percentages of income in savings. Whether or not these bubbles will burst simultaneously or not is the real question. I’d be shocked if another recession doesn’t sweep through within 5 years. With consumer and corporate confidence comes spending negligence. Those who pick up the pieces after the big letdowns are the ones who make substantial gains.

I’ve got my eye on an energy company, but it needs to drop about 5% more yet before I’ll bite.

shady5 wrote:

. I favorably dollar-cost-averaged a few positions today,

I did this on one yesterday.

As for the Oracle and beating the S&P, I’m almost exclusively index funds. Super low cost and I’m not smart enough to beat the general market.

Take an hour of your time to watch this, I promise it’s worth it. You may not look at index vs mutual funds the samw way.

The Retirement Gamble

The video patk posted is great and part of the reason I put most of my savings into low-cost index funds (I’m a grandma I know).

To put things into perspective the market is currently at its same level as it was two months ago and up still up bigly over the last few years.

What’s the old saying? Time in the market beats timing the market. People have been calling for a correction/recession for the past 5 years… no one knows when or how long a correction will happen.

With so man of us counting on our 401ks/IRAs/etc for retirement, I just hope everyone remembers the one HUGE lesson from the last recession. DO NOT be all on stocks or mutual funds if you will be needing the money to retire soon. Fill in your own variable for “soon” based on your tolerance for risk and your willingness to “work off” a recession.

I know 3 really nice people that I worked with as a consultant at a major MN company, all 3 separately told me the same story during the last recession. They had lots of money in their 401ks and lots of company stock was part of that. All were in late 50s or 60 and they just did not realize or pay enough attention to how bad or how long a recession could be and what that could do to their retirement plans.

All 3 of these really good people ended up having their 401k values slashed because they were not diversified for their age and risk tolerance. The market took a dive and took them down with it and all 3 of them ended up working YEARS longer than they wanted to in order to wait out the market recovery.

These were not stupid people, they were an engineer, an IT director, and a marketing director at a very large MN company. They just didn’t think that a recession could last that long or have such a deep impact and they lost good years of well-deserved retirements because of it.

I’ll always be grateful they shared that lesson with me when I was in my early 40s and it would do me some good. I’ll never forget it. Nobody can time the market, don’t be in a position where your future depends on trying to.

Grouse

Good advice from Grouse

Just checked, markets dropping again today. My hunch and only mine, I think we’ve got more room to drop. My next buy might wait a little longer.