Reliability of Long Term Forecasts

How reliable are these forecasts? It seems like every year they switch daily. When I looked early on in November, it said December was going to be fairly cold. Now we’re here and it’s horrible weather. I’m trying to keep my hopes up for this season but this weather is killing me. I’m hoping the long term is wrong and it goes from 39-41 degree days to 19-21 degrees. Just a rough and odd weather pattern we have going on right now. I hope this doesn’t turn into the norm every year or I’ll go crazy. I was hoping for ice late January or early February, but who knows if that will even happen at this point for us guys in West Michigan.

Any weather service that forecasts daily temperature/precipitation/wind beyond 7-10 days is a joke and ought not be bothered with. The only one that I’ve seen that does this is “Accu” weather, which is a joke.

That being said, the National Weather Service will release 3 month outlooks, but those are only based on weather patterns. Those forecasts will only say they if they expect Above Normal, Normal, or Below Normal temperatures and precipitation for a particular region for the next 3 months, not weekly or daily. Those 3 month outlooks tend to be pretty reliable. They predicted what is currently happening now for the region I’m in. Above normal temperatures and normal precipitation.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

NOAA’s long range forecasts are good if you pay attention to the legend. For instance the link above says 50-60% chance of above normal temps for southern Minnesota. That means its still just basically a coin flip between above normal and normal OR below normal.

I believe the determination of above normal, normal or below normal is comparing it to the last 30 years will it be among one of the 10 warmest, the 10 coldest or in the middle.

Variable weather will probably be more the normal patterns, Pacific hit 3 Deg. warmer than even recorded in this El Nino, up down down up repeat, oh forgot blow hard between the changes LOL. Good thing I see in all this is California and the dry West is getting much needed rain and snow in its drainage so maybe this may be a good thing . Great year for the fish as well, the usually over pressured fish in the areas I usually fish so far are able to get a break, I guess there is a upside to the downside in most things in life. Fish safe.

El Nino winters have been very predictable and this is the biggest one on record. I think its going to be a disturbingly mild winter. I keep telling myself its good for wildlife but its very depressing for me. I’m sure we’ll be ice fishing eventually but it will be a shorter season. No Erie or Superior ice fishing this year. The worst part for me is the lack of snow cover since I am a sledder.

For temperature they are all good, for precipitation they go down a notch and for wind speed (important to me if I’m fishing) they are less reliable.
I look at NOAA, Weather.com and “Under Ground Weather”.

I look at the weather over the last couple of years and how violent so much of it has been and when its not radical it is windier than normal most of the time. I’ve seen forecasts for storms and lots of moisture that have fallen on their nose and I have seen forecasts that call for decent days that go right down the toilet with bad weather. Personally I think any weather prediction over 8 hours ahead is just about a joke any more.

This morning, like all others, I got my coffee and clicked up my active weather map to see what we have going on right now and what direction its headed. Beyond that I am not too interested in the weather or worrying about it. It can’t be changed and it does no good to fret about it. See whats coming at you and plan accordingly.