Water clarity is for sure a big factor. Generally Mid-late November before I see the fish make a full transition to the night. There will always be fish to be caught during the daylight hours. Especially sunset and sunrise but the full swing night bite is still a good 3-4 weeks out.
I usually look for my prop when docked at the launch. When the water clears up and I can see all 3 blades of my prop from the dock I know it is that time.
A few things to remember.
#1 is Bardge traffic. When the long mile tugs stop pushing cargo it makes a big difference. So, watch for barge season to slow down.
#2 is a major cold front. Whenever there is a big dip in water temps during a big cold front it will shock the bait/shad. This will push all that bait back into the main channel and the fish follow. This generally sets up the night bite in locations that most guys target fish.
#3 is flow. There is no flow this year so should not be a factor in water color but can affect both water clarity and backwater temperatures. One big issue with low flow is the ice!!!!! We will ice over fast without flow this year so be warned.