NWS predicts 16' @ Red Wing

100% chance of a major flood. 20% chance it will be worse than 1965.

Major is 683 at the dam or 16′ in Red Wing. I had 2 inches of water on my camper tires @ 12.5 last year. Predictions most always are lowered as they get closer, but if it hit’s 16 it will umm very wet.

Fish the Willows!!

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How high does that put the water over everts?

We haven’t had a good high water bite in a while….

What does a person do with a floating camper at times like this?

Houseboat, no longer a camper

Since this is my first rodeo in a floating camper, I’ve been doing a little checking. I’m good until around 19-20′. At that time I’ll have to find another place to park like Bayside Steak and Tap, The Bluff or possible atop of Barn Bluff.

Angler II wrote:

How high does that put the water over everts?

Look at it this way, Everts will be losing money for a while….unless they jack up the entire resort.

And here I thought they were predicting 16′ of snow for Saturday.

Here is Wabasha in 2001 at 18′. The actual river is off to the left of the image. It’s looking like there’s currently a 50% chance of meeting or exceeding this level (second highest crest of all time).

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Here is a train just south of Wabasha in 2001. The other image is from near Red Wing in 2001. 2001 was the second highest crest on record (At Wabasha that was 18.5′). It seems that about 16′ is the level that really puts some of these small communities in a bind for public works, sand bagging, and roads beginning to flood substantially.

Hopefully their coin toss probability of meeting 2001 levels in the next month is completely wrong. I still am going to hold onto my prediction and hope that the flood of 1965 is not matched this year.

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Nice shot of RW Bucky! I’m surprise there is any ground dry on Trenton Island! (Not to mention the campers that didn’t move out)

Here’s a nice little synopsis of some of the events that “stacked the deck” leading up to the great flood of 1965 that many have began to reference this Spring (see below). There are also some interesting aerial shots for those familiar with the lower part of P4 and areas to the South. Many people think it’s a foregone conclusion that we will have a comparable flood this Spring. I surely hope not as many do not realize the devastation a 100 year flood causes. The record February snows are only one variable to flooding.

https://www.weather.gov/arx/flood1965_why

We do have a few of the same variables in-place in the region as the 1965 flood:
1. high snow pack and relatively wet Fall
2. deep frost from minimal snow during the first shot of arctic air

The other variables (record cold March, and torrential April rains) have yet to be seen. The long term forecast is not showing a major arctic plunge for Southern MN, rather a gradual warm-up to seasonable averages or slightly above. If we can SLOWLY knock down a little of the snow pack with some 35-40 degree days starting next week through the end of the month, it will go a long ways towards lessening the flooding severity. We also need to dodge any major rainfalls for the next 4-5 weeks.

Awesome find!