Mille Lacs Ice Prediction 2020

I rarely make any predictions but I’m going out on a limb here.

My prediction is that Mille Lacs will freeze over on Monday November 30th, 2020.

That’s right folks. This morning when I woke it was dead calm and the lake was iced over.

I held off on my prediction waiting to see if the sun today or any wind may have dissolved it into open water once again. The sun has now set and the ice is unbroken.

The official clincher?

My neighbor hurled a grapefruit out there expecting it to plunge through the skim ice. It did not, but bounced a bit and is still sitting out there.

That’s the proof we need that there’s more than just skim, let’s go with 2%.

Dead calm out there tonight. Tomorrow we’ll try throwing cantaloupe out there.

Andy, you have any wind predicted for the next couple of days?

Walleyestudent Andy Cox wrote:

Tomorrow we’ll try throwing cantaloupe out there

And on Wednesday you can toss a watermelon.

So unfortunate. I was planning on fishing out of the boat tomorrow!

Dutchboy wrote:

Andy, you have any wind predicted for the next couple of days?

I’m looking at the extended forecast, the next 7-10 days for the entire region and it looks like a remarkable stretch of “settled” weather.

I’m no Dead-Eye Dave Dahl when it comes to weather forecasting, but what I’m seeing gives me enough confidence to make a prediction when I otherwise never make any predictions.

Without any “unsettled” weather fronts coming through, there’ll likely be light winds for the duration. And the best part of that is the possible dry stretch without significant snow, which would be a bad thing.

I’m not too worried about some days with highs predicted above freezing, it’s a short duration and the sun angle is approaching its lowest point.

It will be interesting this next week or two. The ice out there now is like glass and if wind and snow hold off, there could be perfect ice fishing conditions…next year.

Andy, thanks for the ice update.
I just got a report from Outing, It got down to 8 degrees last night and Lawrence locked up.
and by the way – this is why I love IDO. We get up to the minute reports here.

EPG, is lawrence the one to the east side of outing just outside of town???? i was back that way once but dont recall.

outings just a blurb on my way through!!!!!

I could see open water today out 1/2 to 3/4 mile.
I’ll look around this end more tomorrow.

glenn57 wrote:

EPG, is lawrence the one to the east side of outing just outside of town???? i was back that way once but dont recall.

outings just a blurb on my way through!!!!!

Yes, its the crappie go to. Hoping to drill some holes out there this weekend.

Eelpoutguy wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>glenn57 wrote:</div>
EPG, is lawrence the one to the east side of outing just outside of town???? i was back that way once but dont recall.

outings just a blurb on my way through!!!!!

Yes, its the crappie go to. Hoping to drill some holes out there this weekend.

You guys got my blood pumping looked up Outing on the map a little far for me to drive but maybe next weekend something 30 miles closer will be ready great to hear Mille Lacs is froze up. I think too the weather is looking better highs of 40 only last a couple hours

Thanks for the report, Andy! Great news as the mild weather lately has had me wondering about my 12/17 guided trip up there. Fingers crossed the wind remains low and the snow stays away!

beardly wrote:

So unfortunate. I was planning on fishing out of the boat tomorrow!

I was shooting for Wednesday or Thursday.
DT

The_Bladepuller wrote:

I could see open water today out 1/2 to 3/4 mile.
I’ll look around this end more tomorrow.

Well that’s somewhat curious. Part of what led me to my conclusion was pics posted yesterday from both Eddy Lyback on the south shore and Appeldoorn’s on the east showing ice all the way out from their locations.

Looking from my position on the opposite end I see ice as far as what appears most all the way across.

There’s a bit of a south breeze today and I see a couple small areas that opened, but it looks like over 95% is still intact.

Here’s a pic I took this morning and one Appeldoorn’s posted yesterday.

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Sorry on the East side there is still open water. In Sunset Bay it is froze over out to Doe Island and then still open water out into the lake. However two days ago all the ice in Sunset Bay was gone except for along the shore, then yesterday much the same as today, froozen over to Doe Island. But as Andy informs, looking good for the next few days.
Appledorn’s has a good view with their web cam.

There is ice near the shore, but out further it looks like it is open. This is a view from the eastside, just south of Liberty Beach

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Tough to tell on the satellite with smooth ice, but possibly skating to the mud flats by mid December?!?!

https://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2020_11_30_335&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true&sector=USA3&resolution=250m

Andy let us know when you take a walk with your chisel, don’t have to go too far from your place to good fishing grounds!

From the road going north from Hawkbills south hook up to the shoulder of Hawkbill by Pine lots of open water out to the northwest.
I just watched someone spud out maybe 150yds from Beachside and he is back in now.
It’ll take off freezing up now on the basin with no wind.

The other thing I have seen is that little areas that MIGHT be open water on the south side of points. Think of shallow areas that warm first in the spring.

gonefishin wrote:

Sorry on the East side there is still open water.

And this is why I try to never make predictions.

Interesting observations from east side. From where I stand on the hill at Myr Mar, there’s ice as far as I can see. I can see all of Garrison Bay and to the south of Pike Point. I can also see a good distance along the north shore.

All ice covered. I’m going to say the majority of the main basin is covered. And it is just as smooth as glass.

The few small open areas I saw this morning are now frozen shut.

Rather than continue to throw fresh fruit out there again today, we tossed out a rock about the size of a lemon. We launched it from the hill so it would have more impact and it just bounced on top the ice.

So, without applying physics calculations we merely concluded it is more than just skim ice.

BigWerm wrote:

December 1, 2020 at 2:06 pm#1993077
Tough to tell on the satellite with smooth ice, but possibly skating to the mud flats by mid December?!?!
https://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2020_11_30_335&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true&sector=USA3&resolution=250m

Andy let us kn

Looks like quite a bit of open water or smooth clean ice on Modis today. Did see a video of ice pushing up the west side, so definitely not locked up. Still waiting on your Chisel Report Andy! Grab a couple IPA’s and go for a walk, safely!

Went to the cabin to take a look. There is still lots of open water on the East side by Sunset Bay. From my place I could see it is open from Big Point to well south of Doe Island and out a ways into the lake. The wind today probably did not help matters. So at least a few more days.

BigWerm wrote:

Looks like quite a bit of open water or smooth clean ice on Modis today. Did see a video of ice pushing up the west side, so definitely not locked up. Still waiting on your Chisel Report Andy! Grab a couple IPA’s and go for a walk, safely!

I’m afraid to admit my optimism was…well, overly optimistic.

Perhaps I should have known better. We had a minor front move through late morning/early afternoon and wind switched to out of the NW and clouds replaced the bright sunshine I woke up to.

And with that it looks like the ice sheet has pushed out away from most all of the NW corner. All open water now out front and its open for quite a ways. With temps rising just above freezing briefly before the clouds rolled in I doubt it melted away, but got pushed out.

I’ve seen this before, but in spring when shoreline ice melts it releases the ice sheet and allows it to push back and forth with the wind direction. Yesterday and this morning it was locked up tight to the shore. Not no more…

I hope to have a chisel report the next day or two, but not on this big puddle. Looking at a couple small lakes just north. More out of curiosity, I’m not in any rush. In fact all I have is time now.

IPA’s will be enjoyed once I’m safe on my couch.

people were out fishing on south end bays last night. I have 3″ in front of my place 50 Yrds out. BE SAFE!!!

lunker33 wrote:

people were out fishing on south end bays last night. I have 3″ in front of my place 50 Yrds out. BE SAFE!!!

Excellent!

If anyone wants to come up and fish, might just as well bring the boat too.

Ice fish the south bays in the morning, then drop your boat in the north side for some afternoon open water action.

Pics I took yesterday afternoon of the Wealthwood public access.

Granted, I’ve not lived my entire life here…but all the years I’ve been coming I’ve never seen the ice setup as solid as it appeared earlier this week only to disappear. At least not this time of the year in December.

Forecast not looking good, highs in the low to mid 40’s next week.

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Ha! Wide open as far as the eye can see huh

That is a very inviting pic there Andy!

Heads up to anyone thinking of using this access. It’s a shallow launch at normal lake levels and the lake is down a good 12-18 inches right now!

-J.

gim wrote:

Ha! Wide open as far as the eye can see huh

Now’s your chance to recover some of that open water angling opportunity you grieve so much about losing during the closure in July.

You might even get to keep a walleye if you’re lucky.

Jon Jordan wrote:

That is a very inviting pic there Andy!

Heads up to anyone thinking of using this access. It’s a shallow launch at normal lake levels and the lake is down a good 12-18 inches right now!

-J.

True that it is Jon, however it never ceases to amaze me the determination of some guys to overcome such minor obstacles. In fact I know of at least a couple on this forum that have gone to extraordinary lengths for a few fish. Early ice venturers or one who fishes the river during the dead of winter in a boat combating ice flows.

FWIW, I posted some of this on FB yesterday and had a couple guys (non-local) PM me asking about specific access information. They were both muskie fishermen if that tells you anything.

Walleyestudent Andy Cox wrote:

Now’s your chance to recover some of that open water angling opportunity you grieve so much about losing during the closure in July.

Well alright! I like your thinking!

Walleyestudent Andy Cox wrote:

They were both muskie fishermen if that tells you anything.

Didn’t muskie season close on Dec 1???

gim wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Walleyestudent Andy Cox wrote:</div>
Now’s your chance to recover some of that open water angling opportunity you grieve so much about losing during the closure in July.

Well alright! I like your thinking!

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Walleyestudent Andy Cox wrote:</div>
They were both <strong class=”ido-tag-strong”>muskie fishermen if that tells you anything.

Didn’t <em class=”ido-tag-em”>muskie season close on Dec 1???

Correct.