Lots to unpack here, but I can provide some answers to questions, clarifications, transparency, and some corrections.
I am a fisheries biologist for one of the tribes, I’m pretty knowledgeable and involved in the process. Hit me up with any questions, I’m all about transparency and I’m happy to try to answer them.
First, A 200k shared quota is feasible. Think in terms of exploitation rate. This years spawning stock biomass was 1,219,000 pounds. The quota in 157,500 = 12.9% This a very reasonable exploitation rate. I expect we will see a spawning biomass of ~ 1,400,000 in the next few years, bring that exploitation rate up to around 14%, still very reasonable and you’ve got a 200k pound quota. I’m really hoping for this.
As far as quota, quick facts, the state has gone over several times. The split is legally suppose to be 50:50. The tribes voluntarily give a significant percentage to the state every year in good faith.
I would love to see a two fish harvest for state anglers. 2 fish 19 – 23″ slot. This year this is not feasible. With the bite the way it is the angler harvest alone would exceed 250,000 pounds. Include the tribal harvest ~60,000 pounds, and you’re at 26% exploitation rate, not sustainable. I have nothing to do with the catch and release reg, not my call.
Three reasons for the seemingly strange slot limit: First target the 2013 year class, they are getting old, and it’s time to harvest them. Second, the tribal harvest is 80% Male and almost exclusively 17 – 19″, overlapping harvests could cause overharvest of males and skew the sex ratio. Third, Mille Lacs is not egg limited, for the last 20 years having enough large spawning females has not been the issue.
So if the walleye population has overshot it’s forage base and will likely cannibilize at higher rates this year why not harvest more fish? This makes perfect sense, and it may be right, except it’s not that straightforward. It used to be that Mille Lacs could handle this, catch 1/2 a million pounds the population would decrease, cannibilism would decrease, forage would increase and a new year class would recruit. These days with zebra mussels, spiny water flea, Smallmouth Bass, and very high water temps I’m just not confident that next year class is right around the corner. The plan is, and I hope we stick to it, to carefully increase harvest through increasing exploitation rates. This has happened the last three years in a row. Also, while carefully monitoring juvenile survival. I do the juvenile assessment, last years year class was a total bust, in my opinion due to the late hatch being born right into high summer water temps.
Hooking mortality: Hooking mortality estimates are actually very low for Mille Lacs. I just finished up checking some DNR data from last year, last May it was only 1.5% It peaked around 11% in early august. Overall it’s only ~5%. When I first saw the hooking mortality numbers I was also skeptical, it wasn’t until I did the math and saw these percentages that it seemed correct. This has been a cool May, I expect the hooking mortality correction to be less than 1%.
Lastly for tonight anyways, I’ve worked in fish and wildlife for 14 years all over the US. Almost all harvests are estimated and extrapolated. The Mille Lacs tribal harvest is diligently counted. Myself and 4 teams of creel clerks are at the landings all day and all night. I’m confident my harvest report is 99% accurate, I like to say it’s the most accurate harvest data in the country. People disagree with me on this often, I don’t know what to say, I’m personally at cedar creek and I drive around and check the crews at the other landings. The tribal system is rock solid, I was really impressed when I started the job. If anything the angler creel survey estimates could be more rigorous.
Mille Lacs is a conundrum, I think about how to interpret assessment data and what the best course of action is constantly. It’s not necessarily possible to be 100% certain on how to proceed. I simply hope the health of the fishery, and relations between agencies and user groups continue to improve.