I think the whole thing about winterizing your boat and changing out fresh gear casing lube is overblown. Do you know how much water it would take do anything? I think it’d take darn near the entire lower unit being filled with water and a hard freeze at -10 out before it’d maybe do something.
When I was a kid we never changed the lower unit oil once on any of our motors. Never once did we need a single repair to our lower units and we beat the crap out of our motors. We fish the river a lot and are constantly hitting rocks, logs, you name it. We burned through countless props. All the motors still ran great without issue. I bought my first new motor a few years ago and read the manual and change all the oil in it at or more frequent than what’s recommended. On the new four strokes I think it’s really important to change the gear casing while breaking it in but after that I think you’d be fine going years without doing it. For one, it’s a 90 weight oil and two it’s not doing anything related to a piston firing where the heat and get scorched is going to break it down and reduce the viscosity. Every year I do mine I feel like it’s pointless. Like I’m dumping out good oil to replace with good oil.
One of these years I’m going to get an old cheap lower unit and mix oil and water 50/50 and fill it it up and then sit it outside for the duration of a MN winter just to see what happens.