I follow multiple different weather dudes, 2 do it just for fun while one is actually a meteorologist and all of their forecasts are wildly different. 1 calls for a massive amount of snow in I Falls, 1 calls for like very little snow anywhere and the other calls for a heavy band across WI. I dont understand how they can be that incredibly different.
Because two to it just for fun and are taking wild guesses based on whatever model they are looking at and the other actually has formal training, uses the model as reference and his overall experience to predict the weather. A veteran meteorologist will typically predict the weather more accurately than the models do. The models are just that, a bunch of data that the computer spits out, normally with multiple layers, and it just takes an average of those layers to give raw information.
While I was in school for metrology, my weather predictions were wild guesses that mostly missed. Why, because I just had not studied the weather to the point of veteran meteorologists. Many times it’s just luck when you actually hit the nail on the head.
Then, there are meteorologist that are inherently optimistic, and will always overshoot, some that are very conservative, and thus predict on the light side. If you want a real forecast, talk to Flight Dispatchers for airlines, but maybe I am just biased.