Looking at the forecast holy buckets

  • gimruis
    Plymouth, MN
    Posts: 17787
    #2268691

    Still a few days away, but there is likelihood of another slow moving low pressure system coming to the region on Thursday night/Friday. The path can change but right now the GFS model is showing it churning through central/southern MN for at least a couple days.

    Given how dry it was all winter in terms of snow, we’ve been very fortunate to receive these soaking rains lately. I feel like at some point he faucet is going to shut off and a period of drought will resume…

    fishthumper
    Sartell, MN.
    Posts: 12049
    #2268698

    Here in the Saint Cloud area they are forecasting Rain from 4/26 – 5/5. That’s 10 days of rain in a row. I don’t trust them when its more than 2-3 days out. But if we get rain even 1/2 those days it may still end up being a lot depending on how heavy of rain it is. I’ll take all we can get prior to fishing opener. It can then slow down some.

    CaptainMusky
    Posts: 23299
    #2268709

    Sure glad I dethatched yesterday. It was a dang dust storm even with all the rain we just had like 2 inches. I was going to do 2 passes, but I couldnt handle it anymore.

    buckybadger
    Upper Midwest
    Posts: 8367
    #2268715

    They’re forecasting rain chances here for a lot of the 10 day forecast starting Friday, but even in total the estimations are only around 1.5-2″ with most of it falling Friday-Sunday and barely enough to register early next week.

    That’s probably what a normal MN Spring should be like…we just haven’t had one in a long time.

    fishthumper
    Sartell, MN.
    Posts: 12049
    #2268717

    They’re forecasting rain chances here for a lot of the 10 day forecast starting Friday, but even in total the estimations are only around 1.5-2″ with most of it falling Friday-Sunday and barely enough to register early next week.

    That’s probably what a normal MN Spring should be like…we just haven’t had one in a long time.

    That’s normal for them to only give Est. rainfall amounts for the the next 4-5 days. They rarely give est. for the days farther out than that. So only time will tell if we get rain on all of those days or not and how much rain we get. I’l take another 1.5-2″ at this point

    isu22andy
    Posts: 1799
    #2268729

    Anyone know if the winds blowing ?

    suzuki
    Woodbury, Mn
    Posts: 18701
    #2268734

    I CANT HEAR YOU OVER THE WIND!

    buckybadger
    Upper Midwest
    Posts: 8367
    #2268735

    ^Today is April 22nd.

    We have had exactly x2 days in the month of April without a 20mph wind gust here. Wednesday is likely our next and only one from now through Friday.

    CaptainMusky
    Posts: 23299
    #2268736

    The wind has been absolutely NUTS lately!

    Eelpoutguy
    Farmington, Outing
    Posts: 10598
    #2268743

    This could be the windiest April ever in Minnesota
    Wind gusts of 30 mph or higher have been recorded on all but two days this month. It could be the windiest April of all time.
    By Tim Harlow Star Tribune APRIL 22, 2024 — 10:13AM

    April is living up to its billing as the windiest month of the year in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota where peak gusts of 30 mph or stronger have been recorded on all but two days this month.

    The strongest gust recorded at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, the official weather observation spot for the Twin Cities, was 50 mph on April 16, and there have been six days with a wind gust of 40 mph or higher, according to Minnesota Climatology records.

    “It’s been very windy, even by April standards,” said Eric Ahasic, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Chanhassen. “It’s not that uncommon.”

    A typical April day will bring an average wind speed of 11.5 mph, Ahasic said, the highest of any month of the year. But there have been 11 days that have surpassed that mark, he said.

    The year, the average daily wind speed for April has been 11.8 mph, said Pete Boulay with the state’s Climatology Office.

    March, May, November and October are also quite breezy with average wind speeds of 10.5 mph. June, July and August tend to be the calmest months, Ahasic said.

    A strong temperature gradient and volatility are driving the windy conditions. After reaching a high of 85 degrees on April 13, the mercury reached only 38 degrees on Friday and fell below freezing over the weekend.

    “We still have very cold air over the poles and it’s warm at the equator,” Ahasic said. “We are in a transition month. Fall and spring are generally windy seasons.”

    This April is rivaling 2022 when there were 24 days with at least one hourly wind gust of 30 mph or higher. That is believed to be the gustiest April ever since weather buffs started keeping track in 1973, Boulay said. That year, the metro area saw four days with winds clocked at 50 mph or greater and Duluth saw two consecutive days with readings of 58 mph, Boulay said.

    The strongest winds of the day may only last for a minute, so it’s not a sustained blast, Ahasic said. But that is long enough to blow unsecured objects around.

    On Monday, another wind advisory was in place across southern Minnesota from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. as wind gusts could reach between 25 and 45 mph, the Weather Service said.

    “Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result,” the advisory said. “Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high-profile vehicles.”

    Gusts as strong as 30 mph are possible in the metro area Monday, the Weather Service said.

    Another day of flag-flapping conditions is on tap for Tuesday in the metro before a brief reprieve arrives Wednesday with winds relaxing to between 5 and 10 mph. Then they will pick up again over the weekend with a chance for rain and a few thunderstorms in the forecast.

    “It’s rare to have calm days in the spring,” Ahasic said.

    If the windy pattern continues for the remainder of the month, April 2024 might be the windiest of all time, Boulay said.

    Bearcat89
    North branch, mn
    Posts: 20761
    #2268744

    The wind has been absolutely NUTS lately!

    I’ve been trying to get my new bow sighted in and have to shoot out to 80 yards. This month of wind has been crazy.

    CaptainMusky
    Posts: 23299
    #2268754

    BC that has to be a frustrating endeavor for sure!

    MX1825
    Posts: 3319
    #2268755

    That’s quite a post EPG.
    Talk about windy. doah

    It’s darn windy in SW WI that is for sure.

    gimruis
    Plymouth, MN
    Posts: 17787
    #2268827

    Here is the 7 day precipitation forecast for the area according to NOAA.

    Attachments:
    1. april_23-30_precipitation.jpg

    ThunderLund78
    Posts: 2669
    #2268837

    Need the rain, can do without the wind. Really hoping to get the kayak out after some spring crappie but not going to happen this week, it looks like. At least the next 3 days have winds 20MPH +

    suzuki
    Woodbury, Mn
    Posts: 18701
    #2268891

    Here we go again. A pattern of raining on weekends… doah
    That really messes with my mojo when it keeps happening.

    fishthumper
    Sartell, MN.
    Posts: 12049
    #2268894

    Here we go again. A pattern of raining on weekends… doah
    That really messes with my mojo when it keeps happening.

    Ya that happened a few summers ago. Beautiful all week while I was at work. Then rained every weekend. We don’t need another one like that this year.

    Sharon
    Moderator
    SE Metro
    Posts: 5473
    #2268897

    At least the next 3 days have winds 20MPH +

    Is it me, or is it overall more windy than it used to be?

    CaptainMusky
    Posts: 23299
    #2268932

    Is it me, or is it overall more windy than it used to be?

    Its not you it sure seems to be way more windy than usual. But I am an old man who yells at clouds.

    suzuki
    Woodbury, Mn
    Posts: 18701
    #2269133

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>ThunderLund78 wrote:</div>
    At least the next 3 days have winds 20MPH +

    Is it me, or is it overall more windy than it used to be?

    We are heading for an almost certain record.

    Charles
    Posts: 1978
    #2269136

    Its becomeing more of a south dakota style of weather we are getting spring winds.

    CaptainMusky
    Posts: 23299
    #2269141

    After all the rain that’s forecast we are going to need Belle aka Gim to post the drought index. Maybe even a before and after.

    fishthumper
    Sartell, MN.
    Posts: 12049
    #2269144

    Of the 10 days in a row of rain forecaster for this area. They have now changed it to only 5 out of the 10. Knew that was going to happen.

    fishthumper
    Sartell, MN.
    Posts: 12049
    #2269145

    After all the rain that’s forecast we are going to need Belle aka Gim to post the drought index. Maybe even a before and after.

    I’m sure Gim will have you covered. My guess is that this area will still rater high on the drought index. We are going to need a ton of rain for some of these lakes to get near their historic water levels.

    gimruis
    Plymouth, MN
    Posts: 17787
    #2269148

    North Central MN is still in stage 3 severe drought status. Just north of Brainerd to the Canadian border near LOTW which covers Winni, Leech, and Upper Red are all going to have low lake levels come opener if significant rain isn’t had. As of right now, the heaviest rains look to be further south…but any rain is obviously helpful. Some parts of southern MN are completely out of drought status already.

    The first wave will arrive Thursday night and last all day Friday. A slight gap on Saturday with hit or miss showers, and then another reinforced swatch of rain will arrive Sunday all day, tapering off into Monday.

    Behind that, temps look warmer and drier. Near 70 degrees in a week. The dandelions are going to explode!

    BigWerm
    SW Metro
    Posts: 11862
    #2269153

    Here is the 7 day precipitation forecast for the area according to NOAA.

    Am i reading that right? An inch or two over the next week? That’s not too bad, but yeah if it would rain during the week, yeah that’d be great. (Office space voice)

    gimruis
    Plymouth, MN
    Posts: 17787
    #2269155

    Yes, that’s still seems pretty accurate.

    Friday and Sunday look like potential all day soakers, with Saturday and Monday on and off rain.

    LabDaddy1
    Posts: 2484
    #2269284

    nah, it does seem like it’s always windy the last few years, whether spring, summer, fall or winter. Calm days are not common.

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