Jobs

Osterholm’s models have been dangerously wrong and over inflated. He was on Dan Barreiro’s show at the start of last summer saying there would be 800k-1.6M deaths in 18 months conservatively if we took every preventative measure. Obviously we haven’t taken every preventative measure (South Dakota has taken none, basically), and we are still no where near those predictions 18 months later. However, he has been honest about cloth/surgical mask inefficiencies, so while his modeling has been terrible I believe he is still acting in good faith.

Anyone getting tested should tread carefully as you may be left with a big bill. My wife (who had covid and her vaccine) wasn’t feeling great, so she got a rapid test before a wedding (negative thankfully) and a few weeks later we got a $1,000 bill. We are still trying to sort out how that is possible and if we will have to pay, but something to be aware of.

There’s two debates here one about the actual pandemic and responses, and the other about civil liberties, censorship and other big brother tactics. I think it’s important to discuss the pandemic issues reasonably and in good faith, while being opposed to the big brother portions. I know it’s tough to separate the two, but it’s an important distinction imo.

Also, pretty wild we are not following Sweden, they have had 2 Covid deaths in 4 months while only having a 61% vaccination rate.

gim wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>FishBlood&RiverMud wrote:</div>
please add in the actual odds of me getting covid

The most recent odds of getting infected: 1 out of 8. Odds of dying: 1 in 500.

These numbers were just released yesterday by the CDC based on the data available. It did not break down the odds in terms of age, gender, or underlying health conditions so take it with a grain of salt. The chances of hospitalization are about 20 times greater if you are unvaccinated across all demographics in America.

we’re over 18 momnths into this:

650,000 US citizens dead out of 333,336,637 = .195% of a chance of dying of covid in the united states.

41 million Covid cases in the US in the last 18 months = 12.2% chance of GETTING covid

4.55 million covid deaths globally in 18 months with a polulation of 7.7 billion = .0584% chance of dying of covid in the entire world.

219 million global cases of covid = 2.8% global chance of GETTING covid

Average normal global death rate is 7.7 per 1000 = .77% chance of dying from natural causes.

so you are at least 4 time as like to die of natural causes in the US than of Covid, AND, over 12x more likely to die of natural causes when compared to the rest of the world.

BigWerm wrote:

He was on Dan Barreiro’s show at the start of last summer saying there would be 800k-1.6M deaths in 18 months conservatively if we took every preventative measure.

Here’s the context of that prediction. He is one that firmly believes models are misleading.

We can expect between 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans to die in the next 18 months if we don’t have a successful vaccine.

Here’s something you might appreciate though.

If you’re under age 55, obesity is the #1 risk factor. So, eating the right diet, getting physical activity, and managing stress are some of the most important things you can do to protect yourself from the disease.

Link

luttes wrote:

650,000 US citizens dead out of 333,336,637 = .195% of a chance of dying of covid in the united states.

41 million Covid cases in the US in the last 18 months = 12.2% chance of GETTING covid

Yep, basically exact numbers what the CDC reported and what FishBlood&RiverMud asked for.

BigWerm wrote:

Also, pretty wild we are not following Sweden, they have had 2 Covid deaths in 4 months while only having a 61% vaccination rate.

Should probably put Australia in the conversation as well. They are at 30%.

Not sure why Australia, an island country who has had some of the harshest totalitarian lockdowns in the free world, would be in the conversation?

Sweden was averaging between 10-20 weekly deaths in the month of August so your statement isn’t even factual.

It was meant to be a comparison of different strategies. It’s a pretty stark difference.

gim wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>luttes wrote:</div>
650,000 US citizens dead out of 333,336,637 = .195% of a chance of dying of covid in the united states.

41 million Covid cases in the US in the last 18 months = 12.2% chance of GETTING covid

Yep, basically exact numbers what the CDC reported and what FishBlood&RiverMud asked for.

Not really, because 94% (?) of those deaths are 80yrs and older population or otherwise compromised. How many of those death stats are ‘from’ vs ‘with’.

So I’m asking, those numbers provided… how many times do I divide that percentage to get reality for, well, me.

Basically, ditch the blanket percentages and apply to individuals, as we all are.

biggill wrote:

Sweden was averaging between 10-20 weekly deaths in the month of August so your statement isn’t even factual.

Where are you seeing that? My original comment was from Bing search results (still shows that), but upon further review looks just slightly off. Starting end of May/early June they got to near 0 deaths, and have only single digit days since June. And haven’t had double digit weekly death average since June 9th per Johns Hopkins.

http://www.graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/sweden/

http://www.google.com/search?q=sweden+covid+deaths&sxsrf=AOaemvLlDMD_spq6VmpJFOAeHtkTdOQbFw%3A1631811154965&source=hp&ei=UnZDYbPoONSu5OUPrfSP8Ao&iflsig=ALs-wAMAAAAAYUOEYmiOrFL0gOaRdVqA8nsCjE8Ts01M&oq=sweden+co&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMYADIECCMQJzIECAAQQzINCC4QgAQQhwIQsQMQFDIHCAAQsQMQQzIECAAQQzIICC4QgAQQsQMyBAgAEEMyDgguEIAEELEDEMcBEKMCMg4ILhCABBCxAxDHARDRAzIECAAQQzoECC4QJzoECC4QQzoFCAAQgARQ2QRYqQ9g3xhoAHAAeACAAeEFiAGUDpIBBTUtMi4xmAEAoAEB&sclient=gws-wiz

Here’s the list 5 months of weekly deaths for Sweden.

FishBlood&RiverMud wrote:

Not really, because 94% (?) of those deaths are 80yrs and older population or otherwise compromised. How many of those death stats are ‘from’ vs ‘with’.

So I’m asking, those numbers provided… how many times do I divide that percentage to get reality for, well, me.

Your initial question was “what are the actual odds of me getting covid?”

I answered with data from the CDC and so did Luttes. Your initial question did not request any information based on age or underlying health conditions. And in my response, I stated that information that should be taken with a grain of salt too. The CDC does not track what your own personal chances are of getting it. Your personal behavior probably has a lot to do with.

biggill wrote:

Here’s the list 5 months of weekly deaths for Sweden.

I haven’t seen that data anywhere but that link, not sure why Reuters, Johns Hopkins, the WHO and the NYT has significantly different data. :???::???:

Werm, your second link actually uses data from the webpage I provided. I changed it to weekly deaths because daily deaths is always messy to view.

biggill wrote:

Werm, your second link actually uses data from the webpage I provided. I changed it to weekly deaths because daily deaths is always messy to view.

No, it doesn’t. My second link is google/Johns Hopkins and doesn’t have a seven day average (nor aggregate) over 10 since early June (excluding the last two days which are often incorrect after later adjusting for date of death). Your link is Oxford University. And weekly deaths is no less messy, if you want to stabilize for trends you need to use 7 day average, not aggregate.

You know what’s proven to lower your chance of being hospitalized or dying of covid? The vaccine.

So much obsession with twisting the numbers around to try justify not getting a free, safe vaccine.

Attachments:

1. 

   Screenshot-2021-09-13-151249-1.jpg
   

Mike wrote:

You know what’s proven to lower your chance of being hospitalized or dying of covid? The vaccine.

So much obsession with twisting the numbers around to try justify not getting a free, safe vaccine.

How do you know its safe? Enlighten us with your scientific data. Your rudimentary graph doesnt count.

You can change the page I linked to 7 day average of daily deaths. In August, it ranges from 0.14 to about 2.5. It’s the same data. 0.14 is 1 death per week and 2.5 is around 17. They don’t report 7 days a week. It looks like only 4 or 5 days so the 7 day average of daily deaths is also influenced by off days. Weekly deaths are not.

You were correct on where Google got the data. I was looking at a different source on that page that points to ourworldindata.

Right, the risk for 20-40 year olds is much much lower.

Again, the issue isn’t covid or not, it’s the United States Federal Government overstepping their constitutional powers and forcing people to get vaccinated or, risk losing their job (we all know that they are going to make testing as inconvenient or costly as possible).

biggill wrote:

You can change the page I linked to 7 day average of daily deaths. In August, it ranges from 0.14 to about 2.5. It’s the same data. 0.14 is 1 death per week and 2.5 is around 17. They don’t report 7 days a week. It looks like only 4 or 5 days so the 7 day average of daily deaths is also influenced by off days. Weekly deaths are not.

biggill wrote:

Sweden was averaging between 10-20 weekly deaths in the month of August

Per your link the seven day rolling average doesn’t exceed 1.5 (aka 10 deaths per week average) until August 24th, so even off your own link your statement doesn’t hold up. Additionally I think the multiple sources I cited that are very consistent are more credible than the one you shared. Particularly since your link shows a total of 37 deaths total (7 on August 31st), so that is some VERY unique accounting to average that out to mean 10-20 (20?!?!?) weekly deaths in the month of August. I’m done in here for awhile, but maybe you want to spell out for everyone else if you are playing devils advocate, being disingenuous, married to your confirmation bias or just don’t understand how numbers work.

luttes wrote:

Right, the risk for 20-40 year olds is much much lower.

Again, the issue isn’t covid or not, it’s the United States Federal Government overstepping their constitutional powers and forcing people to get vaccinated or, risk losing their job (we all know that they are going to make testing as inconvenient or costly as possible).

Testing supplies are in a shortage right now.

My numbers were a hell of a lot closer than your 2 deaths in the last 4 months.

I’m just tired of lies and misinformation like this.

Also, pretty wild we are not following Sweden, they have had 2 Covid deaths in 4 months while only having a 61% vaccination rate.

gim wrote:

Your initial question was “what are the actual odds of me getting covid?”

That was the second question. The first was basically asking if 0.195% is the risk everyone faces (blanket statistic) and the recorded deaths are predominantly in a specific health condition risk or elderly then I should be what, 5% of 0.195%?

The .195 you provided.

I know you don’t have the answer but these are the math from which my decisions are derived.

I.e. I’m at a risk level of…meh

Kind of what I’m saying is when we use these blanket statistics that exclude the fact that it is not a normal statistical bell curve, it is a simple scare tactic used to steer the masses.

Our president throws these stats out like they apply equally to the population when in fact they apply to only a small percentage of the population.

As an engineer, I simply tune this out as it is easy to identify garbage in/ garbage out.

One thing that always bothered me is all anyone talks about as a consequence of covid is death. Well, according to reports there are 10s of thousands of people with long term symptoms that make life miserable. Why is that never part of the risk discussion? I’ve read some accounts of numbers as high as 10-20% of covid patients experience long term symptoms. Personally I’ve never been worried of dying from covid but I am concerned about long lasting symptoms.

For those that enjoy anecdotal evidence my friend got covid last winter and still can’t taste anything

crappie55369 wrote:

For those that enjoy anecdotal evidence my friend got covid last winter and still can’t taste anything

My neighbor who is approximately 50 and relatively healthy had it last fall and suffered a stroke because of it. He still has no use of his right arm. Quite honestly, that scares me a lot more than anything else. He literally cannot mow his lawn, drive his car, run his snow blower, or golf anymore (which he used to regularly). Obviously this is a very rare outcome but its personal enough to get my attention almost every time I see him.

That’s a great point Crappie. That’s why I think the “You don’t know the long term effects” argument against the vaccine is a very poor argument. We already know some of months/year long lingering effects that contracting covid are, and time will tell how those continue.

suzuki wrote:

Funny, I have never heard of anyone dying at home from covid.
Just a random thought.

I don’t either but a very good friend of mine does. This person got Covid 19 last year just before Thanksgiving. He and the medical staff knew he wasn’t going to make it so they let him go home to spend Thanksgiving with his family. He died Thanksgiving evening.

crappie55369 wrote:

One thing that always bothered me is all anyone talks about as a consequence of covid is death. Well, according to reports there are 10s of thousands of people with long term symptoms that make life miserable. Why is that never part of the risk discussion? I’ve read some accounts of numbers as high as 10-20% of covid patients experience long term symptoms. Personally I’ve never been worried of dying from covid but I am concerned about long lasting symptoms.

For those that enjoy anecdotal evidence my friend got covid last winter and still can’t taste anything

This is a good point, what about all of the side effects of the vaccine that no one is talking about or actively trying to cover up?

blank wrote:

That’s a great point Crappie. That’s why I think the “You don’t know the long term effects” argument against the vaccine is a very poor argument. We already know some of months/year long lingering effects that contracting covid are, and time will tell how those continue.

Actually its a very good argument. Lets just look at odds…if you have a 1 in 8 chance of getting Covid and then odds of actually suffering long term effects as something like 1 in 4, versus a 1-1 chance of suffering long term effects from the unproven vaccine (long term) I will take the 1 in 8 every time.