Is the US losing hardwater icefishing time every year?

It seems to me that we have less and less time to icefish each year due to lack of good ice.

I know in Northern Minnesota 20 years ago there would always be plentiful snow during deer hunting (1st weekend in Nov) and many times during the 2nd weekend of deer season there would hard ice that you could walk across with.

In the last 20 years that has gone away to open water during the 2nd weekend of deer season and no snow.

We used to have plentiful snow in MN during Halloween and the last 10-15 years none. Same goes for ice.

Is the US losing hardwater icefishing time every year?

In general, yes.

There will be some winters that will be an exception but overall, data indicates that there is less ice every winter on average because winters are becoming warmer on average.

You gave a good example in your original post specifically referring to deer firearms season. Seems like that has definitely gotten warmer over time.

No. I was on ice 2 days ago. I start my ice fishing on Thanksgiving every year. This year looks on par for that

This may be a good resource

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/ice_in/index.html?year=2020#map

There is variation between years but looks like we’re slowly getting a later ice on date.

I remember a year or two around 20 years ago where the winter was so warm that the ice never got thick enough to drive on in some places around the metro.

Overall, things can vary wildly from year to year. It’s impossible to get a good sense of what’s happening based off memory.

I’ve been keeping a photo log of first safe ice on a local lake by me and the safe ice date is literally all over the board. No way in hell you could identify a trend.

Growing up, safe ice for walking right after thanksgiving was about the average. Since then I recall most years I’m on the ice before thanksgiving.

The answer? I can’t tell.

Short answer is no. Measurable snowfall before Halloween is incredibly rare in the majority of Minnesota. Any year with ice in near or before Thanksgiving is considered early. We are actually ahead of schedule this year if you go off the averages.

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/ice_in/index.html?year=median

Yes, the season is slowly getting shorter. Temperature data along with my personal experiences the last 20+ years back this up. It seems to be happening slowly, and of course there will always be variability. At a supper high level I would guess we lost a week in the past 25 years, and will lose another one in the next 25.

Yes, if we are talking about “averages.” This doesn’t mean we don’t have cold winters or still a lot of ice, but we have in general slightly later starts and earlier ice out for many bodies of water. Like mnfisherman18 said, it isn’t a ton…but just enough to notice if you have been fishing long enough.

We routinely participated in the WI Gun Season the weekend before Thanksgiving and harvested deer on Saturday, then would start our ice fishing that Sunday morning (along with a lot of other people) on 4-5″ of solid ice near Pool 4. I cannot remember many years of my adolescence or even early adulthood where this wasn’t our routine. In the last 10 years I think I’ve now been able to do that once, twice if you count shoving out in a flat bottom boat cracking ice as we went in spots just to say we were out.

I’d say in my lifetime safe ice has shifted probably 2 weeks later on average with some outliers sprinkled in. The other big difference I’ve noticed is more “thaw” events in the middle of winter. I do not remember nearly as many 40 degree January days years ago as we have now. Temperature swings are a bit more extreme for sure. I think we are likely to have more slush problems with these thaws and big snow storms that pop up in coming years.

Ask snowmobilers who live from the Metro southward just how often they’ve had a lengthy season in their home areas in the last 10 years…it’s maybe a year or two at best. Years ago snowmobiles sat at bars, school parking lots, restaurants, etc. starting around Christmas right through mid-March in SE Minnesota and Western WI. Now when we get a fresh 6″ of snow following a cold spell people are anxiously waiting for a trail to open with muddy corners debating taking off work to go riding for a couple days while they can.

buckybadger wrote:

Yes, if we are talking about “averages.” This doesn’t mean we don’t have cold winters or still a lot of ice, but we have in general slightly later starts and earlier ice out for many bodies of water. Like mnfisherman18 said, it isn’t a ton…but just enough to notice if you have been fishing long enough.

We routinely participated in the WI Gun Season the weekend before Thanksgiving and harvested deer on Saturday, then would start our <strong class=”ido-tag-strong”>ice fishing that Sunday morning (along with a lot of other people) on 4-5″ of solid ice near Pool 4. I cannot remember many years of my adolescence or even early adulthood where this wasn’t our routine. In the last 10 years I think I’ve now been able to do that once, twice if you count shoving out in a flat bottom boat cracking ice as we went in spots just to say we were out.

I’d say in my lifetime safe ice has shifted probably 2 weeks later on average with some outliers sprinkled in. The other big difference I’ve noticed is more “thaw” events in the middle of winter. I do not remember nearly as many 40 degree January days years ago as we have now. Temperature swings are a bit more extreme for sure. I think we are likely to have more slush problems with these thaws and big snow storms that pop up in coming years.

Ask snowmobilers who live from the Metro southward just how often they’ve had a lengthy season in their home areas in the last 10 years…it’s maybe a year or two at best. Years ago snowmobiles sat at bars, school parking lots, restaurants, etc. starting around Christmas right through mid-March in SE Minnesota and Western WI. Now when we get a fresh 6″ of snow following a cold spell people are anxiously waiting for a trail to open with muddy corners debating taking off work to go riding for a couple days while they can.

The middle season thaw has become common I think.

In the middle of the season you get a warm spell, ice melts, and it never gets cold enough again to rebuild that ice thus ruining your ice season right in the middle of it.

The middle season thaw has become common I think.

In the middle of the season you get a warm spell, ice melts, and it never gets cold enough again to rebuild that ice thus ruining your ice season right in the middle of it.
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Fixes the ice season. Keeps half the crowd home and puts a lot of ice castles off the lake. It’s the best warm up of the year.

Wish ten day forecast didn’t look so bleak…..won’t be on ice on decent sized metro lakes for at least two weeks unless it changes.

Hopefully some day they never freeze and I can fish in the boat on the lake all year.

Are you going way up north Bear? 3 days ago you said launches were all good. Ice can set up fast with below zero and no wind. Anyway glad you are getting out, be careful-early ice is like granite, so that’s good.

tim hurley wrote:

Ice can set up fast with below zero and no wind.

Don’t have any of that coming unfortunately.

looks like I’ll be getting all the gear ready this weekend.
Chain up the S x S
Replace canvas on the otter
Charge batteries
Pull the Smitty out
Find where I left the tip-ups
Re-spool the ice rods
Locate my winter tacklebox
Dust off the 40V
Fill propane and check heater
Go play pull tabs and drink Corona

BUT, I just got a text from a local saying he’s got a spot with 1.5″ and depending on cold it gets on T-Day I might get lucky enough to punch holes this weekend.

Not really but I don’t follow analytics so maybe in theory we lose some days……meh. SE MN, I usually start around xmas and looking the same so far. 90% of the time they allow foot traffic on UPRL around Thanksgiving. I heard they are hopeful this weekend if the winds settle. I wouldn’t bother going there for another 2 weeks tho. Smaller puddles up north might have 2-3″. I seen skim in my neck of the woods today!

tim hurley wrote:

Are you going way up north Bear? 3 days ago you said launches were all good. Ice can set up fast with below zero and no wind. Anyway glad you are getting out, be careful-early ice is like granite, so that’s good.

Granite is one of the strongest surfaces in the world. So I don’t think it’s like granite. And yes north

If I say you walk like a duck it does not make you a duck

tim hurley wrote:

If I say you walk like a duck it does not make you a duck

90 percent of the time I have no idea what your saying.

usmarine0352 wrote:

Is the US losing hardwater icefishing time every year?

You realistically have to look at multiple decades to see if there is a statistical trend. My impressions are there is less snow and more deer hunting tee shirt weather since the late nineties. I wouldn’t be surprised if a later ice up is more common. What does get thrown around is on average winter overnight temperatures aren’t as cold as they use to be. It also seems like we get more rain events in winter than I remember however we still get polar vortexes. Ice out has been across the board over the last 10 years. Record early ice outs in 2012, record late ice outs in 2013 and everything in between.

Without reviewing any hard data, I feel that since I’ve begun fishing I’ve started later but also fished on ice longer every year. Just seems to be the trend but could be lots of explanations for that- one being I’m more comfortable and confident in managing safety on early and late ice every year than I was in the past.

I don’t know… I think it was 2015 we had 50 days of below zero temps, and a year later in 2016 like 57 days. Two years ago we had a top-5 record annual snowfall – all in February. Then we get one winter where its mild and everyone says – see that global warming thing is real.

40 years ago I worked in a ski shop and we had an end of the season sale when it hit 60 degrees in January ~

In the end, I think the weather trends follow El Nino and La Nina and average out for the most part.

I by no means know it all, but when I started ice fishing back in the mid eighties, there was nobody with a 5k lbs fish house let alone a 9k in the areas I got to fish. We sat on a bucket that we carried our poles in and if I was lucky my dad would be my wind break. I’ve never tried to keep track of what day I get out for the first or last time so I can compare weather patterns, to me I’m excited to get on first ice and disappointed when I know it’s my last time on the ice for the year! Best of luck to all this season!!!

I wonder if there is even one individual in North America that has kept a reliable record of when ice got to be 4-inches on the same body of water for the last 40 years. I doubt it. In the absence of reliable data we really don’t have anything, but speculation. Ice formulation to be thick enough to fish on is complicated and affected by so many factors. Weather can be so schizophrenic. We never know what we are going to get when it comes to early ice conditions. One ill-timed snowfall can really put a wrench in things or can really aid in ice formation. Snow is such a wild card.

Ice pretty much is a measure of freezing weather, its not perfect, but is pretty good, so as we get warmer we will have less ice and less time on the ice. Water temps in the summer are a pretty good measure of average air temps, lots of variables there too, anyway highs in the 40s next week, enjoy.

Great take on the issue Pundit.

Eelpoutguy wrote:

Great take on the issue Pundit.

yeppers, i agree. think it was 3 years ago, we had 7 inches of ice the second weekend of deer hunting……up in itasca county at the cabin.

the following week it snowed big time. friend of mine that lives up there said they had 30 inches of snow in dec. put a kabosh on my winter fishing up there till march………only to find with my underwater camer we had a severe winter kill on the lake……again!!!

Going to take awhile before my local lake is locked . Drove by yesterday and lots of open water . 60 miles south of Superior . I remember in the eighties guys ice fishing and rifle hunting at the same time, not so much now .

Muzzleloader season just started today in Minnesota and no snow……we used to always have snow by deer season opener…not in many years now.

I think the best situation would be to get 2 to 3 inches of snow on the ground while the lakes are still open. That helps to keep the temps down and from fluctuating as much. Then it gets cold and freezes things solid.

Unfortunately it seems we get a skim ice and then 10 inches of snow on top or we get what we have now, no snow and above freezing during the day.