An interesting Study was recently published by Stanford University. Take from it what you will. It’s still a pretty small study, I think they did 3,300 tests.
They found the infection rate is 50x to 85x higher than what is being reported. Meaning the fatality rate is closer to .12-.2% where the study was done, not 4% or 6%
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That would be fantastic news. Perfect example of how difficult early modeling is in these situations
OMG. Just give it a rest.
Who were the 3,300 people that were tested for the antibodies? Were they healthcare workers or others that would be exposed to the virus at a high rate? I’m not doubting the study, but as a scientist a non-peer reviewed study doesn’t mean anything unless I know and trust the authors. If it’s true we’ll know in a few week’s.
Infection rate means very little since most people will only have the flu with slight breathing problems. What I want to now is how many people need hospitalization.
OMG. Just give it a rest.
Amen.
OMG. Just give it a rest.
Were you talking to the original poster? The thread has not taken a negative turn other than your comment. I don’t see a rule against discussing science on the forum? Current events of a non-political non-religious nature?
OMG. Just give it a rest.
You seem to dislike a lot of topics on here – But still seem to post something on most all of them. Why not just pass on and not comeback to the post.
All of the usual issues apply to this study, so the “findings” are of little to no value.
1. The antibody test used has not been validated, meaning the true accuracy of the results is unknown.
2. It is not known whether or not you can get COVID more than once, so even if the given test was proven to be accurate, it is still not known whether or not a person who was previously exposed could get the disease again and get a more severe case the second time.
3. Like seasonal flu, it is not known whether or not this virus can mutate and therefore exposure would not mean long term immunity.
There seems to be more and more desperate attempts by some to point at every study as “proof” of some kind of “overreaction”. The problem with facing this disease has always been the fact that there are many unknowns that cannot be answered by quick studies. The problems are compounded by the fact that this virus can very quickly ramp up to an overwhelming infection rate, at which point nothing can be done, so the cost of under-reacting is very, very high.
Grouse
All of the usual issues apply to this study, so the “findings” are of little to no value.
1. The antibody test used has not been validated, meaning the true accuracy of the results is unknown.
2. It is not known whether or not you can get COVID more than once, so even if the given test was proven to be accurate, it is still not known whether or not a person who was previously exposed could get the disease again and get a more severe case the second time.
3. Like seasonal flu, it is not known whether or not this virus can mutate and therefore exposure would not mean long term immunity.
There seems to be more and more desperate attempts by some to point at every study as “proof” of some kind of “overreaction”. The problem with facing this disease has always been the fact that there are many unknowns that cannot be answered by quick studies. The problems are compounded by the fact that this virus can very quickly ramp up to an overwhelming infection rate, at which point nothing can be done, so the cost of under-reacting is very, very high.
Grouse
Very well said.
B-man, how do you know that Stanford University is real?
B-man, how do you know that Stanford University is real?
It’s not coming from the Onion.
Multiple bigs news outlets have posted the story
Stop with the rational and reasonable post. 
All of the usual issues apply to this study, so the “findings” are of little to no value.
1. The antibody test used has not been validated, meaning the true accuracy of the results is unknown.
2. It is not known whether or not you can get COVID more than once, so even if the given test was proven to be accurate, it is still not known whether or not a person who was previously exposed could get the disease again and get a more severe case the second time.
3. Like seasonal flu, it is not known whether or not this virus can mutate and therefore exposure would not mean long term immunity.
There seems to be more and more desperate attempts by some to point at every study as “proof” of some kind of “overreaction”. The problem with facing this disease has always been the fact that there are many unknowns that cannot be answered by quick studies. The problems are compounded by the fact that this virus can very quickly ramp up to an overwhelming infection rate, at which point nothing can be done, so the cost of under-reacting is very, very high.
Grouse
Please BK?
We seem to have hit the point in the curve where people are saying ‘It’s not as bad as they said it would be, we totally overreacted’ while completely ignoring the fact that taking the measures we did are the reason it’s not as bad as predicted.
They also seem to ignore the fact that more than 41,000 Americans have died due to COVID-19 in only a few months. This is far from over. Opening everything up now would be a disaster.
The only part I would argue with would be the “few months.” First death was only about 6-7 weeks ago I believe
The test doesn’t test for a live virus. It tests for a DNA code that a large percentage of the population naturally has.
Institutions get a lot more money if they code a death as COVID19 related.
We seem to have hit the point in the curve where people are saying ‘It’s not as bad as they said it would be, we totally overreacted’ while completely ignoring the fact that taking the measures we did are the reason it’s not as bad as predicted.
They also seem to ignore the fact that more than 41,000 Americans have died due to COVID-19 in only a few months. This is far from over. Opening everything up now would be a disaster.
This is the double edged problem we will look back on after this has passed. If it doesn’t turn out to be as bad as it could’ve been the doubters will say “we told you it wasn’t anything to shut the country down for” when in reality as you stated, the reason for that is most likely the painful measures we’ve taken.
At this point, I don’t even know where I stand on it. I guess in the party that is just plain sick of every part of it.
The test doesn’t test for a live virus. It tests for a DNA code that a large percentage of the population naturally has.
Institutions get a lot more money if they code a death as COVID19 related.
“Institutions” would get a lot more money by just being fully open. Surgery is by far the biggest driver of money for a health system and they aren’t able to do a lot of the semi-elective operations right now. Tell us more about the vast conspiracy theory involving multiple branches of the government, tens of thousands of doctors, hundreds of health systems, and dozens of labs though
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>bob clowncolor wrote:</div>
OMG. Just give it a rest.You seem to dislike a lot of topics on here – But still seem to post something on most all of them. Why not just pass on and not comeback to the post.
Only on b-mans non stop COVID threads. It’s literally non stop. And posting a bunch of “studies” or “facts”. Give it a rest. The facts aren’t out yet. I was actually hoping it was a study about fishing when I opened it.
This is the double edged problem we will look back on after this has passed. If it doesn’t turn out to be as bad as it could’ve been the doubters will say “we told you it wasn’t anything to shut the country down for” w
As far as I’m concerned there is no double edge sword. It was a valid talking point weeks ago, but there is ample evidence world wide how nasty it can be and anyone or any news outlet that says different is simply ignoring the facts, or lying.
Not calling you out specifically Mahto, but the big picture.
Dead is dead. Lots of people dead both here & abroad.
Watch Sweden for the next couple of weeks and then decide if we should have done nothing. With a world economy. Their lack of action couldn’t even save that.
Watch Sweden for the next couple of weeks and then decide if we should have done nothing. With a world economy. Their lack of action couldn’t even save that.
I believe their goal is herd immunity which means at least 60% of their general population must become infected, and then, immune to it. It’s a risky play no doubt.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mahtofire14 wrote:</div>
This is the double edged problem we will look back on after this has passed. If it doesn’t turn out to be as bad as it could’ve been the doubters will say “we told you it wasn’t anything to shut the country down for” wAs far as I’m concerned there is no double edge sword. It was a valid talking point weeks ago, but there is ample evidence world wide how nasty it can be and anyone or any news outlet that says different is simply ignoring the facts, or lying.
Not calling you out specifically Mahto, but the big picture.
I probably used the term double edged in the wrong spot. Or just the wrong term. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario is probably more accurate.
I know it’s dangerous and how infectious it is. We had our first nurse on our unit test positive last week. He’s doing fine but still makes you think. The point I was trying to make was if it doesn’t blow up to the possible numbers people will say it’s because the whole thing was overblown. When in all seriousness it will probably be because of the measures we’ve put in place. It’s just a no win situation.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>fishthumper wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>bob clowncolor wrote:</div>
OMG. Just give it a rest.You seem to dislike a lot of topics on here – But still seem to post something on most all of them. Why not just pass on and not comeback to the post.
Only on b-mans non stop COVID threads. It’s literally non stop. And posting a bunch of “studies” or “facts”. Give it a rest. The facts aren’t out yet. I was actually hoping it was a study about fishing when I opened it.
imo if you dont like it, hit your back arrow.no need to comment. hes just sharing information.
I’m not concerned that we overreacted with covid. I am concerned we overreact in the future with something that is not nearly as dangerous.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>fishthumper wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>bob clowncolor wrote:</div>
OMG. Just give it a rest.You seem to dislike a lot of topics on here – But still seem to post something on most all of them. Why not just pass on and not comeback to the post.
Only on b-mans non stop COVID threads. It’s literally non stop. And posting a bunch of “studies” or “facts”. Give it a rest. The facts aren’t out yet. I was actually hoping it was a study about fishing when I opened it.
Didn’t realize it was trolling season this early. Looks like he’s gettin bites!
I’m lost, can anyone help me…yes, Dr. Smith and the dancing girl in the space suit. 
Lost_in_Space_GIF14.gif
The numbers from the study would help put us all at ease and back to work if they are true.
Unfortunately right now the numbers we are seeing are
2476900 confirmed
170000 dead
=6.8% ish
Clearly not all cases have been tested
Clearly not all deaths have been confirmed/reported either.
It seems that the number for our country are even worse.
No statement here,
Just observation
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