Things are not looking great for early ice in the near future. I’m sure some sheltered puddle sized lakes are locked up in the Northern part of the state, but for much more than that…it could be a while.
What are everyone’s thoughts on fishable ice for some of the big bodies of water (Mille Lacs, Red, LOTW, Leech, etc)?
The couple trips we have planned to Red and Mille Lacs are looking far different that we anticipated.
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I have NO SNOW on the ground up here in International Falls.
I’ll be looking at around Christmas like usual around SE MN. I might travel north if the Covid kicks us off our projects again?
Rogers’ on Red said today that it’ll be close on whether foot traffic will be allowed out on Thanksgiving weekend or not. They’ve been throwing out reports every few days on facebook. I have a tentative plan of URL the first week of Dec and Mille lacs the week following. Fingers are crossed.
I’ll be checking water temps on Roosie this weekend.
T-day doesn’t look like I’ll be needing to sharpen the auger blades.
I’d be more than ok to cancel my early Dec Red trip and push it later. Enjoying the mild temps and still have roosters to chase…..
I remember back in mid October when some people thought they’d be ice fishing by Halloween. I’m with Lindy on this one, chasing roosters until that season closes is fine by me.
All of it is just a guess but looking at the 14 day I am going to say main lake on Mille Lacs will be closer to Christmas. Bays probably sooner. Probably a better chance fishing out of a boat Dec 1st than on the ice. Seems like the wind kicks up every other day which isn’t helping.
Global warming. Slowing down the ice season.
How soon would you consider adjusting a Red trip scheduled for December 10-12? Yes I’m aware there will be fishable ice by then, but the reason we’re targeting Red is for a sleeper (4 guys). There are plenty of other lakes I can walk out on to catch eater walleyes and walk off at the end of the day. The sleeper aspect is what my buddies really want with the chance to catch fish during the night after working with portables during the day. Do the experts here think sleepers will be out a ways on Red by then?
I have NO SNOW on the ground up here in International Falls.
Must be the warm spot… 
Continual snow cover in Garrison for awhile. Some falls, then melts a bit…and then keeps getting topped of again. Still a white landscape.
Ice predictions? I never make any, either going in or out. Like predicting sports game outcomes. I’ve seen way too many predictions become the total opposite.
I will speculate though I’ll not see trucks out on Isle Bay Thanksgiving weekend this year like I witnessed one other year. 
Even if it starts getting cold the wind we’ve been having is going to make it tough….Hopefully it settles down at the right time.
How soon would you consider adjusting a Red trip scheduled for December 10-12? Yes I’m aware there will be fishable ice by then, but the reason we’re targeting Red is for a sleeper (4 guys). There are plenty of other lakes I can walk out on to catch eater walleyes and walk off at the end of the day. The sleeper aspect is what my buddies really want with the chance to catch fish during the night after working with portables during the day. Do the experts here think sleepers will be out a ways on Red by then?
I wouldn’t re schedule. you should be fine? lots of resorts will pull houses out with those suzuki samurais and tiny 4×4’s. as long as they don’t get a pile of snow, that lake locks up really quick. worst thing is you sleep on shore. I have had trips around christmas and had almost 2 feet of ice.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>buckybadger wrote:</div>
How soon would you consider adjusting a Red trip scheduled for December 10-12? Yes I’m aware there will be fishable ice by then, but the reason we’re targeting Red is for a sleeper (4 guys). There are plenty of other lakes I can walk out on to catch eater walleyes and walk off at the end of the day. The sleeper aspect is what my buddies really want with the chance to catch fish during the night after working with portables during the day. Do the experts here think sleepers will be out a ways on Red by then?I wouldn’t re schedule. you should be fine? lots of resorts will pull houses out with those suzuki samurais and tiny 4×4’s. as long as they don’t get a pile of snow, that lake locks up really quick. worst thing is you sleep on shore. I have had trips around christmas and had almost 2 feet of ice.
That’s what I meant about shore. We could fish places a whole lot closer to home and keep walleyes while sleeping on shore or in our own houses. If it comes to that, I’ll leave it up to the rest of the crew what they want to do.
Boat season is still at its prime. Ill be on early ice on red I bet some time near Thanksgiving. We ice camp Thanksgiving week every year. We man have to push it a week or 2 back
I remember back in mid October when some people thought they’d be ice fishing by Halloween. I’m with Lindy on this one, chasing roosters until that season closes is fine by me.
I also made that prediction. But, you have to remember that at the time we were experiencing January type weather in Mid-October. And it wouldn’t have surprised me if some crazy did make it out on Halloween just because.
Who’d have guessed we would have been deer hunting on opener weekend in 70 degree weather? Those few days really killed the ice that was established. If it wasn’t for that, we’d be on the ice by now.
We’ve been good and cold this week and ice is being made 24/7. I’ve seen reports around Ely area on smaller lakes having 3-4″ in near shore areas. If a guy wanted to be crazy, one could go out and cut a few holes and fish today. The weather forecast looks to be warming up starting tomorrow, but lows are still getting down into the 20’s. Thursday looks like the warmest with highs in the low-mid 40’s, and a few days up into the mid-upper 30’s. We won’t be making ice much this week, but we won’t be losing much either.
The one constant in life is the weather will always be unpredictable. Predicting when we’ll have fishable ice is nothing more than throwing out a guess and waiting to see. It was 16 degrees this morning on my way into work. I’m predicting that there are some spots with fishable ice today, but overall, I’m going to predict the first weekend of Dec is when most lakes should have “safe ice” and when I’ll plan to attempt to go out fishing (which is a pretty average date for me).
If it gets pushed back later, well then it looks like more time to work on the Honey Do list, or bow hunt some more.
Certainly not a weather forecaster, but if you look at the current jet stream maps, we are going to be warm for awhile. Most years when we get the sub zero or solid below freezing temps, it is due to arctic air pushing into us. The way the jet stream is going, all the arctic air is pushing down the west coast, warming a bit and then coming up from the southern portions. I think and it’s only my opinion, until the jet stream changes a bit, we are going to see above average temps. I have been watching this for a couple weeks and it is slowly changing more north, but still pushing the wrong direction. Fairbanks Alaska has had sub zero temps for the past couple weeks and we have not seen any of those type of temps. It seems whenever that portion of Alaska is extremely cold and the jet stream is pushing towards us, their temps and our temps are usually about a weeks difference. Again just my observations.
also made that prediction. But, you have to remember that at the time we were experiencing January type weather in Mid-October. And it wouldn’t have surprised me if some crazy did make it out on Halloween just because.
You have a point but there was no way winter was here to stay in mid October and predicting so was fool’s hope.
I’ll go with early January now on the big lakes.
How soon would you consider adjusting a Red trip scheduled for December 10-12? Yes I’m aware there will be fishable ice by then, but the reason we’re targeting Red is for a sleeper (4 guys). There are plenty of other lakes I can walk out on to catch eater walleyes and walk off at the end of the day. The sleeper aspect is what my buddies really want with the chance to catch fish during the night after working with portables during the day. Do the experts here think sleepers will be out a ways on Red by then?
I would call and let the resort know what you are wanting to do, the earlier the better on Red like we all know, but that might be a little early for a sleeper. We usually shoot for New Years weekend for a sleeper on the ice and will have already stayed up on shore and went out in portables usually early December because that is the best bite.
How soon would you consider adjusting a Red trip scheduled for December 10-12?
Do the experts here think sleepers will be out a ways on Red by then?
If the “experts” here all said…no worries, you’ll be fine, would you bank on that? 
I’m sure you’ll figure it out on your own in due time, but I’ll admit the topic in general is a worthwhile discussion.
FWIW, surprising right now how Mille Lacs is so close. You wouldn’t think but this morning’s temp at 10°, no wind and I can clearly see areas of skim ice forming out there.
Yes, and I’m looking out over the main basin, not a channel, harbor, or small bay.
Sadly though, temps the next few days will be be going in the wrong direction for ice formation. 
Over the weekend it looked like only the muskrat marshes had ice in east central MN. I talked with the neighbor of our family property in Aitkin Co and the small lakes still didn’t have ice. Water surface temps are there but any skim ice has been blown off.
In terms of predictions I guess one has to keep looking at the 10-day. One benefit is the snows we’ve had should have zapped heat out of the ground. There is snow cover north so that should help keep the temps depressed. Lower sun angle also bodes well. Tentatively, we’ll see where things sit at the start of Dec.
I messaged a guide on URL this morning who said their early ice season really is dependent on what happens tomorrow with the big South winds anticipated. If that wipes the slate clean for much of the lake, November fishing likely isn’t happening. If the ice can hold, they feel they will have a shot at walkable ice to the main break the last few days of November. As far as sleepers go, he didn’t have much of a prediction other than it could “be close” by the second week of December.
My local 10-day forecast doesn’t have a single daytime high under the freezing point. Lots of wind too. Most days up around 10mph or higher.
I’m planning on doing a lot of bird hunting in November and maybe the first week of December. After that, I’d be surprised if we don’t have ice. Looks like a delayed start to the ice season this year.
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