Ice Predictions & Winter Weather

If Christmas crap is out in department stores, people can talk ice fishing. I’ve seen everything from a warm, wet winter predicted to a cold one in the Midwest from polar warming and the vortex being pushed south. I admittedly like open water fishing far more, but the change to ice and early ice fishing is worthwhile too (at least until the ice gets thick and vehicles/wheelhouses are out during the doldrums of winter).

Do you think we will have an early ice season, a typical start to the ice season, or a slightly later one? The start of fall was definitely “late” by most documented standards with most of MN still not having its first frost. I saw the attached graphic on the news and immediately thought if there’d be any perceived connection to later ice formation or not? …only time will tell.

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A lot will depend on if the current trend of La Nina moves into an El Nino, which is forecasted to do this winter. We’ve had 3 straight years now of La Nina, which is rare.

Last fall was the warmest on record here. Right now we are having the driest September on record. MSP has recorded a grand total of 0.23 inches of rain the entire month of September, with no rain in sight. The southern half of the state is in stage 2 drought and that affects how soon the leaves turn. They are stressed here.

I’ll go with mid December when “winter” weather shows up here. Deer firearms season has been getting warmer and warmer. I foresee that happening again.

From ye ole farmer’s almanac, here’s your answer. Can close the thread now.

MINNEAPOLIS — The Twin Cities metro area is in for a “cold, dry” winter, according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac 2022-23 winter forecast released last week.

For the Upper Midwest, “winter temperatures will be below normal, with the coldest periods in late November, early December, early and late January, and mid-February,” the publication states.

“Precipitation and snowfall will be below normal in the east and above normal in the west. The snowiest periods will be in late November, early and late December, and early and late March.”

It will be under 30 degrees here tonight. Make what you will of that.

It was snowing on the Gunflint Trail already.

I’ll say Dec 14th here in the metro.

Dutchboy wrote:

It will be under 30 degrees here tonight. Make what you will of that.

I’m hoping ice!!!

Eelpoutguy wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Dutchboy wrote:</div>
It will be under 30 degrees here tonight. Make what you will of that.

I’m hoping ice!!!

Ice only belongs in cocktails.

I predict it will be long, as usual

Had some frost here this morning. The 10-14 day outlook looks unseasonably warmer though.

Frost last two days here. Yesterday it was only on the rooftops, but today ground was covered. Chilly 29 when I got up.

My prediction is by the start of March everyone will be ready for it to be over.

We had a nice frost here on the banks of Pool 4. Those temps look to be short-lived though, with an early summer like forecast.

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26 this morning!

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My guess snow and cold. By New Years I will want to take a trip to Florida.

My prediction is 100% everytime.

We will have darkness tonight followed by light in the morning.

Im hopeful to be on ice somewhere in the southern 1/2 of WI by mid December. I can usually find somewhere to go by then, even if there isnt much of a chance at catching anything, just nice to be out on the ice

BigWerm wrote:

My prediction is by the start of March everyone will be ready for it to be over.

I’m usually the end of February….

It’s looking like next week could be a perfect scenario for parts of Northern MN to start icing up. I’m showing 8 straight days with no temps above freezing and no winds over 8mph for Upper Red Lake after the snow falls on open water. Don’t be shocked to see resorts out poking around late next week into the weekend of November 18th and people wetting a line.

Other small bodies of water in Northern MN could definitely be fishable then as well.

Southern MN and my home area of Pool 4 has a ways to go, but the temperature swing coming should do a lot to help water temps drop. I think the first weekend in December is a decent target to be poking around in this area. All it takes is one warm spell between now and then to change it, so anything that far out is pure speculation