Ice Predictions – Somone Has to Do It

Veteran IDO’ers –

What are your armchair meterologist predictions for ice conditions in the coming weeks/months? Will we have average/early/late ice in your area? Should I be lining my rods tonight? Will half of the Midwest be fishing URL the weekend after Thanksgiving?

My complete guess for my area (Pool 4) is that we will have a late start to the ice season. Water temps are still in the 50s here and the 10 day forecast doesn’t really any freezing temperatures. An “average” year in my lifetime would probably have me on the ice poking around here December 1st…and that seems nearly impossible right now. Last year we legitimately never had frost that a person couldn’t dig through, which is the first time I can remember in my life. I’m assuming this year will be more normal…but time will tell

I have a little prayer that it’ll be like last year and local lakes will see no ice castles.

I regularly check the 7-10 day forecast, precipitation, and temperature models, and I tend to agree with you. There is nothing in the 10 day that resembles “winter.” Long term models for the MN/WI region also favor above average temperatures…to be taken with a grain of salt on that one.

Steady chances for rain and temps above average. I think we’re on track for a mild November and December again.

Time to go light weight? Canvas by the Stich? Not a fancy ice house but it will surely expand your opportunities.

Read we are looking at better odds of a below average temp winter this year. Once we get that first cold blast we should have ice pretty quick

OG Net_Man wrote:

Time to go light weight? Canvas by the Stich? Not a fancy ice house but it will surely expand your opportunities.

Nope, just keep running with the portable. Save myself 12k for a canvas trailer

Let it be late and let it be thin. I’ll be hunting until New Years and don’t have an ice house.

Now outside my selfish prediction I agree that once that first blast of cold air comes it’ll make ice pretty quick. Walkable ice in the metro by 2nd week of Dec. Ice houses will have their season this year.

Bearcat89 wrote:

I have a little prayer that it’ll be like last year and local lakes will see no ice castles.

YES. Or better yet, NO ICE!

My prediction is that we will have more of a normal ice season this year. That means on the ice in mid December for my area.

I prefer going with portables so lack of ice castles doesn’t bother me.

I hope we do get a big change in the forecast and get some early ice. I work with many small Ice Fishing companies and they sure could use it after last year! Im hoping I can get on ice at least before Christmas unlike last year around the metro.

From what I see forecasted, doesn’t look good for early ice. Daytime temps look to be around normal, but the forecasted night time temps are way above normal. Example: the extended forecast for Dec 1 is a high of 32 with temps of 25 at night, with the historic average being 30 with a low of 13. That forecast of warmer night time temps held true until about the middle of December.

Bearcat89 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>OG Net_Man wrote:</div>
Time to go light weight? Canvas by the Stich? Not a fancy ice house but it will surely expand your opportunities.

Nope, just keep running with the portable. Save myself 12k for a canvas trailer

If you think that 2 boats are better than one then I can guarantee you that you should have more than one type of ice shelter.

Jimmy Jones wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Bearcat89 wrote:</div>
I have a little prayer that it’ll be like last year and local lakes will see no ice castles.

YES. Or better yet, NO ICE!

X2

YES. Or better yet, NO ICE!
[/quote] hush Jimmy……… i just spit polished my harpoon!!!!1

grizzly wrote:

YES. Or better yet, NO ICE!

X2

Lol you guys are something else. Hoping for another fake winter I see.

Well I for one (after finally pulling the trigger on a wheelhouse after 10 years of pipe dreaming) am hoping for a 2013 type of winter. Give me extensions needed in the metro

Does three sizes of portables and now a single axle wheelhouse count? (Gonna need to build a second garage to store everything pretty soon…

buckybadger wrote:

What are your armchair meterologist predictions for ice conditions in the coming weeks/months? Will we have average/early/late ice in your area? Should I be lining my rods tonight? Will half of the Midwest be fishing URL the weekend after Thanksgiving?

Going to be real late again, walking/portables early to mid-December, a brown Christmas, and no sleepers out until mid-January. 50/50 on if my stuff comes out of the rafters or not…again.

Mid December I would assume.

12-5-2024 at 3:04 AM

Bump – Another week, and another week has passed with more above average temps.

I blocked off some time the first week of December to be ready to jump in with some buddies and head North (URL or some pothole spots up that way)…but a lot is going to have to change in 3 weeks.

short or no ice season works for me

Early hardwater please, its been a while since I’ve had some good quality ice drinking.
Then snow like a mofo so i can get the sleds out.

Im hoping to be walking out on ice in the southern half of WI somewhere by mid December. I was last year on some backwaters off the WI River, but no places I had any confidence in catching much.

it will be christmas at the earliest in SE MN

Just had this memory pop up from 5 years ago yesterday lol

Even had the boys wheeler on the ice lol it was on a 3,000 acre lake in Minnesota

Not gonna lie, I enjoyed the 55° weather today

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15 day forecast is finally looking better for up north

Temp wise, we’re a good 2+ weeks behind “normal” temps in my neck of the woods. I gutted my deer in shorts and a t shirt yesterday. Most years we’d have snow on the ground by the 2nd weekend of deer rifle season. The 7 day forecast doesn’t have any significant ice making weather in it and I don’t trust any forecast looking much further than that.

42 degrees in central Mn.

There actually looks like a reasonable chance of some ice by early December in northern MN.

Paging the Beltrami County Sherriff…