From the Mille Lacs Messenger.
New Mille Lacs Ice out record declared March 16!
by Erik Jacobson
The early ice out really came as no surprise, with the lack of ice thickness this year, and the continued warm weather, all indicators were pointing at an early ice off. And for all intents and purposes, it’s about right to break that record too – with all the other records that were broken this winter. But by 10 days is quite a feat, and sets the bar high for the earliest ice out record.
The previous record was March 26, which was set in 2012. That year had a weird winter preceding it as well, when a hole opened up in the northwest corner and stayed open until mid-January. This year, as of Friday, March 15, the lake was showing lots of open water around the edges as the dark honeycombed ice eased away from the western shorelines with a south/ southwest wind blowing.
By Saturday, the wind switched to the northwest and blew at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts and that is all it took to break up the already rotten ice and pile it up on the east and southeast shorelines.
Long time Messenger ice out contributor, and Mille Lacs guru Steve Fellegy had this to say about the event: “With less than a third of the normal ice thickness, it is not surprising that the big wind took the ice off the big lake in short order. It is exactly 2 full months ahead of the latest ice out that occurred in 2013, on May 16. And this year is 10 days ahead of the previous record of March 26, 2012. All thanks to a strong El Nino. Amazing, to say the least.”
And with that is the beginning of a long open water season for Mille Lacs Lake. The ice out record was a full seven weeks sooner that last year’s ice out on May 5. According to the DNR, the average ice out on the lake is April 25.
How did we get here? Let’s face it, it was a weird winter – it felt like spring a month ago. Pretty sure that is the way most Minnesotans summed up the winter – or non-winter of 2023-24. For starters, there were probably more records broken this winter than any others in the past. Not only for temperatures – highs and well above average low temperatures, but also for lack of snowfall and overall snowfall for the winter, and on the other side there were some record rainfalls in areas of the state as well, that if it would have been snow, would have likely been several feet of the white stuff – like usual.
Warmest December on record December 2023 went down in the record books as the warmest on record in over 175 years of record keeping. That month’s heat even topped the winter of 1877, dubbed “The non-winter” which had defended its title for over 145 years. And the lake reflected it, there were pictures on social media of anglers fishing on Mille Lacs Lake in boats as late as December 29, and that is absolutely unheard of around here for that time of year.
With the record warmth of this winter, the ice never got as thick as it would on an average winter. Some resorts and access points on the main lake said the ice reached a maximum thickness of 16-18 inches – and much less in other areas of the main lake. That is essentially about half of what the ice thickness would normally be by the end of the season. So that alone was a great indicator that it was going to be an early ice out. It should also be noted that the bays – especially on the south end, had much more ice than that, due to the head start of freezing over Thanksgiving.
Record late ice in According to the DNR, the big lake didn’t freeze until January 4 this year. That blows the old record of December 22, 2015, out of the water (that date is according to my personal records, the DNR did not have a date in their ice in records for Mille Lacs for that year). But they noted 2001 as the record ice in on that same date.
Now that record was for the entire lake. As stated, the bays had frozen considerably earlier. But the main lake was another story. After many false starts – including one as early as December 1, it was looking like it was frozen after a calm frigid night, but then the wind began to blow that afternoon and reopened a big portion of the lake. There were other days that looked like it had frozen as well, but it was just the wind blowing the big sheet around to different sides of the lake.
Determining ice out The DNR considers
“ice-out” when a lake is 90% free of ice. On Mille Lacs – the second largest lake in the state at 132,516 acres, that could still leave 13,252 acres of iced in water – and still be considered ice out. To put things in proportion, that area alone would be the 11th largest lake in the state.
But the local guideline for decades to declare ice out on the big lake has always been when a boat can make it from Garrison to Isle without encountering a major ice floe. Nowadays satellite imagery is also available to declare ice out – as long as there are no clouds to inhibit the view. If that’s the case, it’s back to the old ways of binoculars and telescopes from different vantage points on the lake. Social media has also become another good way to get that information.
Currently, Wahkon Bay is still completely iced in and there is a lot of remnant ice from there east and up the east side of the lake due to the big northwest winds that blew over the weekend. And with this cold long term forecast, it sounds like it might be there for a while.
Last year’s ice out The ice finally came off Friday, May 5, last year. The lake began to break up with a big north/northwest wind that blew over the weekend of April 29, but then subsided by mid-week and the lake stalled. But May 4 brought warm temperatures, and with that the sheet seemed to show some signs of breaking up with lots of fractures in the satellite image from that day.
A nice east wind was blowing that afternoon and the satellite image clearly showed the massive amount of open water observed around the lake. The ice that was on the May 4 image was all but gone, it had dissipated overnight and throughout the day on May 5. Although the southwest corner was still clogged with some ice, the main lake was wide open. In 2022, ice out was May 2.
Ice out annually marks the start of another open water season on the big lake in this beautiful part of the state. Anticipation is high for the trees to start budding and the grass to turn green again signaling the start of what we’ve all been waiting for – another wonderful Minnesota summer.
