How long will the snow stay?

Local news is talking flooding. Stillwater is in early planning stages to respond. I still think its going to happen but I hope it doesnt.

Over a week ago NWS posted a “water equivalent” map for the snow pack and my area was well over 300% annual for an entire season. Last week they posted a YTD snowfall map and they had us at 6 to 8 feet of snow. That is ridiculous. Its closer to 8 feet than 6 for sure.

Here is the spring flooding outlook for the region from NOAA as of last week.

The first map that shows colored squares, red and purple are the two most likely to experience flooding. Stillwater, St Paul, and pretty much everything to the southeast is one of those two colors.

The 10 Day Forecast for us locally on Pool 4 looks good with almost no precipitation. The issue is going to be what falls in the watershed up river from here.

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The weather person I saw last night said this prolonged cold weather in March is also part of the problem, delaying the big melt until April when the stronger sun and eventual warmer temps melt the remaining snow FAST. I think its kind of a no brainer given the winter we had this year.

suzuki wrote:

The weather person I saw last night said this prolonged cold weather in March is also part of the problem, delaying the big melt until April when the stronger sun and eventual warmer temps melt the remaining snow FAST. I think its kind of a no brainer given the winter we had this year.

Yep and the likelihood that a warmup will happen much faster then too. We are going to go from overnight lows in the teens highs around 40 to overnight lows above freezing and temps in the 50s and 60s which will be a big problem.

^Agreed.

The air temps in Southern MN are going to start really ramping up with the snow gone and radiant heating…but Northern MN & WI still have a long ways to go.

The last big flood year we had here (~5 years ago?) I took a group of local athletes and filled somewhere around 5 thousand sand bags. It was a cool community service project that the kids enjoyed. Hopefully it’s not needed this round

buckybadger wrote:

The 10 Day Forecast for us locally on Pool 4 looks good with almost no precipitation. The issue is going to be what falls in the watershed up river from here.

That forecast clip got me pretty fired up… until I checked my local forecast. Yeah our snow will be here well into April

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^Woof. That’s less than ideal.

Apperently the snow depth is way different all over. News said 5 inches of snow pack at the airport. I can now see about 4 inches of my 30 inch garden fence. No drifting in that area just that damn deep. West end Scott county.

1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain tonite channel 9 said this morning. Ice is breaking up on the MN river and its rose alot but still has 8-10 feet of bank showing. Should be some good ice jams flowing tomorrow.

I don’t know, maybe August. our illustrious city employees did this today.its on my favorite neighbors yard

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Snowing again in Alexandria this afternoon/evening.
DT

Just remembered I have a bottle of Jag buried somewhere in the snowbank outside my front door. Waiting for enough melt to expose it, talk about a fun Spring treat!

lindyrig79 wrote:

Just remembered I have a bottle of Jag buried somewhere in the snowbank outside my front door. Waiting for enough melt to expose it, talk about a fun Spring treat!

lol it’s raining here now not a fan

I am just so sick of snow I’ll take the rain. I seriously had a dream last night that all the snow melted in one night and it was the best thing ever, lol. I’ve definitely hit a wall…

5″ in crosslake last night again. I have a waist deep snow in my yard, its going to be a mess when it melts. Plus side I might be a able to see my landscape lights, I know there buried in a pile and there still working with the faint glows from the bank.

Flooding of some sort does seem likely with the amount of snowpack. But, I think it’s tough to compare this year to any other. IMO, the lack of frost makes this year much different. Had to run up to our cabin north of McGregor to clear some snow yesterday for a project. Had to stake out a building. Brought a hammerdrill with to make some holes through the frost. Most I found was about 4-5″. One area, and it happened to be shaded with about 24″ of snow, had 0 frost. This and ground that is far from saturated should help a lot I would think. We shall see.

Duluth recorded 4.5 inches of snow from yesterday’s system. That brings their season total to 125.4 inches, which is good for the 6th snowiest winter of all time there, dating back to 1885.

Models are hinting at a significant warm up in a week, potentially reaching 60 degrees in Southern MN near Mankato.

I don’t see anything over 43 degrees for the next 14 day forecast for central MN..

stout93 wrote:

I don’t see anything over 43 degrees for the next 14 day forecast for central MN..

i’ll take that for starters!!!!!

Heard the average date we hit 60 is March 28.

We’re no where near that for the next 2 weeks from what I see. We’re not even close to seeing 50 degrees in the next 2 weeks..

Central and Northern MN Lakes having open water by May 12th … it will happen, but I bet it will be close.

Power of the sun is evident. Our south facing yard is losing snow depth very fast. Across the street they still have 4′-5′ snow banks.

Our roof is now snow free for the first time since mid-December.

Looking at the forecast for the area I do most my ice out fishing, I do not see 1 high forecasted above 40 all the way out till April 7th. Most all the daily lows are in the mid teens to low 20’s. Not much for rain either. Looks like a fair amount of ice fishing remaining at this point.

The latest date for 50 degrees is/was March 23rd! Another new record for this winter.

I remember fishing Tullibees on Easter near Motley years ago. Obviously we can ice fish on Easter this year.

Beautiful weekend and really enjoying the sunshine. But, still a LONG way to go on snow melt. This is looking out my front door towards my outbuilding.

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lindyrig79 wrote:

Beautiful weekend and really enjoying the sunshine. But, still a LONG way to go on snow melt. This is looking out my front door towards my outbuilding.

same here in cold spring……and with lows in the single digits 2 days this week

one night its forecasted for -1 in itasca county.

I worked south of Elko last week and they had like no snow. I came home and I still have 4 ft tall banks. Very sad.