It seems to vary a little from year to year. I’ve been on the ice pretty much everyday for the last 2 weeks either flagging pike or chasing Lakers. The bays on Rainy Lake don’t have much ice on them, and are already opening up where cricks are flowing in, and around points and islands. Many of the bays on Rainy will be open in the next week. The main basin sheet still had 24 to 32 inches of ice. Most of the bays will be ice free for a good 2 weeks before main lake ice goes out. So by the time you can get to many of the bays on a year like this they should already have 2 weeks of warming, and it should be ideal conditions for casting. My theory has always been for Rainy Lake that pike spawn as soon as the bays are ice free, and then they leave the bays for about a week to recover. When pike spawn the baitfish are not yet in the shallows until the water warms up a little and that is what brings the pike back into the bays, and then they will usually hold in the bays until July or just outside them until July. Many times when we have been fishing pike right after ice out we will catch pike with a burbot tail sticking out of its throat. This leads me to believe that these pike are coming from deep water.
Flagging pike the last week has been incredibly good! We had a customer ice 7 pike over the 40 inch mark in one day which was the best day, but everyday was good with lots of pike, and lots of big pike. I can’t wait to be able to get back after these big gators in a boat!