% of luck

Just talking to a friend a few days ago when we got in to conversation about luck and fishing. What percent of fishing do you think is luck . I was thinling 10% luck 90% skill.

Luck happens when preparation meets oportunity! How’s that for cheesy sayings?

I really think it depends on the amount of time you want to measure. Over the long run, I think skill/experience has much more to do with it. On a one day trip or even for the duration of a trip, luck can have a lot to do with it.

How else would you explain the kid who’s eating a sandwhich and playing his game boy hooking into the 9lb Walleye while Dad and Grampa are jigging their butts off? What percentage of the time does that kid actually outfish the others in the boat?

It’s a lot like poker, you can have all of the skill/experience in the world, but you simply cannot beat luck. The more experienced, skilled players will however last longer in the majority of the games played over time. Take luck when you can get it, but I’d rather be consistantly good.

In my boat I’d say it’s usually 50/50 (I like to think I’m the 50% that’s the skill)

Well, how do we answer this one? I can put skills to the test and have banner days………. and not-so-banner days. The more knowledge I gain, the more skills I develop, the less “skunk” days come around. But I do think the luck % can also vary between species.

Sunnies – 0%. No luck needed at all. Learn a little and these come easy!

Crappies – Summer suspending and scattered fish can be more challenging but typically, when you put the knowledge forward, crappies only need a little luck, mostly because of the paper lips.

White Bass – once found, 0%.

Walleye – About 5% luck. Between all the presentation possibilities and the great night fishing they often present, getting into walleyes is really only challenging when chasing trophies. Eaters are much easier to dial in.

Largemouth Bass – 10% luck if you get a trophy class fish. Easy to locate, easy to entice.

Smallmouth Bass – 10% luck if you get a trophy class fish.

Northern Pike – 0% luck again. Trophies south of Canada are not seen often so there’s plenty of luck involved there but fish 30″ and shorter are like sunnies…… easy to locate and easy to entice.

Muskies – Really, only about 10% luck here too. Finding fish can be an issue. Seeing fish can be a bigger issue. Getting them to bite is the biggest issue of all. If the skill level is high, seeing fish is likely and catching one also has a decent probability. No skill, it’s all luck. Total skill still insists on getting about 10% lucky….. or higher.

Catfish – not sure. Big flatheads seem to take alot of effort but smaller ones seem a bit easier. Channels seem to come pretty easy for those who know cats.

Trout – I think the guys that know trout would say that luck has very little to do with success. If they know their water and their quarry, trout seem to come easily for them. No more than 5% luck.

After all that, there’s still the 80/20 rule. 80% of the fishermen and women are only catching 20% of the fish. BUT, the other 20% of the fishermen and women are catching 80% of the fish. Which group do you belong to? Well, if I don’t start getting some real time on the water this year, I’ll definitely be a 20% catcher. It’s hard to trump this number only fishing 2-4 days a month!

Lots of scenarios with the luck/skill thing. The way I walleye fish (working wingdams) I’ve always said that it is 90% boat control and 10% skill. Luck is either something you have or don’t have I guess.

The percentage of luck all depends on the type of fishing you are doing. If you are baiting a hook and casting a worm out to the middle of a creek and waiting for the fish to come to you then it is 90% luck and 10% knowlege of where to throw your bait. If you are concentrating on catching a specific species of fish and fish for that fish in places where it is known to hang then the luck factor is far less.

I consider myself lucky anytime I can be fishing… rather than doing chores…

I go with the 10% luck, 10% chance and 80% skill.

big g

WTF over?

I read this post and went off working to get ready for Friday and found myself thinking about luck. I don’t know if what I concluded will make sense to anyone but me but I feel I have an answer. Skill is when you learn to take advantage of your luck. I say that because we all get “lucky” and catch a fish once in a while. The people who then start to analyze WHY they caught the fish are the ones that capitalize on their luck. I’ve had a few lucky fish that turned into patterns that still put fish in my boat years later. I’m no philosopher but it makes sense to me!

Amen Rich, if one can deduce why the lucky 27″ was where she was, one can have a “Lucky” pattern, then luck just becomes part of your milk run!

If I had any , I think its been passed on to someone else for a while , but I feel shes comin back around the bend here real soon,
I beleave more skill , but when the oppertunity arises its 90% presentation

the only luck that I have is that I keep on breaking my boat and equipment as fast as I can fix/replace it. it has been one expensive luckey season so far!!!! sure could have used some luck on tonka last weekend. ended up holding down last place, not bad, but overall, out of 13 guys, sitting 6th. looking to move up.

shane

I hear ya tracking I was out on tonka Sunday with brother and sister and we worked all my bass honey holes and all we could pick-up were 3 small largemouths 2.5lbs and less.

Now northerns on the other hand left and right. With the biggest going to my sister Sara at 11lbs. Whew we almost lost that one took us 35 mins to revive her to get her back on her way. We also waited in that area for another 1/2 just to see if she came backup struggling. Never saw her again I hope she lived to be caught another day.

Thats exactly what it’s all about. The more prepared you are, the more knowledge you have the more opportunities you will have to become “lucky” example– fishing bass on pool 7, I’m fishing a area that from past experience I know holds bass and keeping my eyes pealed for any activity, I happen to look over my shoulder and see a fish work 100 to 150 yards from my present position. I moved to the area and for a hour and a half pounded 15 to 18 inch bass ( and a few pike) I knew I was in a good area but by chance or “luck” I turned my head at just the right time to see–hear a fish yell “here we are” -that was lucky, the rest was up to me.