Climate Change Effects on Lake Minnetonka

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I’d like to ask for the standard error, confidence intervals and R^2 to be included with these stats.

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We’ll never know, because … Hutchinson doesn’t have rails no longer Jack.

Ugh, there’s a 1/2 hour I’ll never get back!

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Send me the data to chart so I can compare it against the data originally presented like I originally requested. And for goodness sakes, put some damn labels up as I requested.

This isn’t climate science where you can just show a chart and demand we take your word for it.

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The data is in the OP; year and ice out date. What data do you want that you think I have? Y axis = date of ice out; 0 = March 31. X axis = year. Waving your hands in the air won’t change the results.

ooo eee ooo ahh ahh

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ooo eee ooo ahh ahh

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Desperado, I think waving your hands around worked… look at the graph now!

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The data is in the OP; year and ice out date. What data do you want that you think I have? Y axis = date of ice out; 0 = March 31. X axis = year. Waving your hands in the air won’t change the results.

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The honis is on you to provide me the damn data. You obviously have it in a spreadsheet, unless you built that table in paint, to which I have to protest it’s accuracy.

How hard is it to get me the comma delimited data you have already got? The bet was for you to produce proof with a chart. You expect me to go and verify each dot on that chart against the original data?

Proof has to be verifiable.

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I’d like to ask for the standard error, confidence intervals and R^2 to be included with these stats.

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The variance is super high (SE 35.7) and the relationship super weak (r2 0.02). That there is a trend present in the data doesn’t mean anything about climate. Never said it did. Just that a trend was obvious on the surface. Likewise, no trend wouldn’t say anything climate either.

Three questions-
1. Are any of you guys really concerned about climate change?

2. If so what do you personally do about it?

3. Or, has this just become a “I’m smarter than you” kinda thing?

#1. No. Man Made Global warming is BS. I am concerned that there is a political agenda to push forward subsidies on failed Wind, Solar and Ethanol. costing me money and loss of liberty. “they” are already considering putting limits on woodfired heat, campfires etc.
#2 Educate the sheeples.
#3. Yes, I am.

The purpose of a regression equation is to predict a future event. By identifying a trend, you hope to predict the future. Since the relation between ice out date and year is so weak, it is logical to conclude that there is no correlation at all.

If you want to build a regression equation to accuarately predict out date, a starting point might be to look at max ice depth, average dec-feb temps, snow cover and march rain fall. Then you might get something useful.

To belletaine, yes i believe in climate change. The climate changes seasonally as you get further from the equator.

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This guy believes in global warming, and he likes graphs. And turtles.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jk_QxHQHM1s

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#1. No. Man Made Global warming is BS. I am concerned that there is a political agenda to push forward subsidies on failed Wind, Solar and Ethanol. costing me money and loss of liberty. “they” are already considering putting limits on woodfired heat, campfires etc.
#2 Educate the sheeples.
#3. Yes, I am.

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I appreciate your answers, although #3 is a little arrogant.

You guys wanted proof?

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The purpose of a regression equation is to predict a future event. By identifying a trend, you hope to predict the future. Since the relation between ice out date and year is so weak, it is logical to conclude that there is no correlation at all.

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Agreed. One purpose is to find the strength of the relationship between two variables which helps to predict future interactions between those variables. I’ve said several times the relationship is weak and type of data doesn’t provide any predictive skill. A linear regression is also a quick and easy way to identify a simple trend. There is an obvious trend in this data (that’s the only assertion I ever made about the data, BTW). It doesn’t necessarily say anything about climate change. However, to dismiss the trend altogether could be a type II error. It may be a signal of climate change but we can’t tell with any confidence because there’s too much noise in the data.

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If you want to build a regression equation to accuarately predict out date, a starting point might be to look at max ice depth, average dec-feb temps, snow cover and march rain fall. Then you might get something useful.

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Agreed. That would make for a much better model to predict ice out. I also said as much in an earlier post. It still wouldn’t tell us much if anything about climate change.

So I did a graph of my own using all of the data and added trend lines. When you change the trend lines to Polynominal and change the order value, you get drastically different trends.

So now what does it tell you?

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So now what does it tell you?

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That this thread is officially dead.

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So I did a graph of my own using all of the data and added trend lines. When you change the trend lines to Polynominal and change the order value, you get drastically different trends.

So now what does it tell you?

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That graph makers are a lot like accountants ? … allow me to illustrate

There was company who’s CEO retired and the board of directors wished to hire a new CEO from within the company if at all possible; so their first list of candidates was the head of their law dept, the head of their engineering dept, and the head of their accounting dept.

So the Chairman of the Board calls in the Engineer and says “There’s only one interview question, What’s Two Plus Two?” The engineer replies “Well it’s gonna be somewhere between three and five; but if ya need the exact figure, I can get out my sliderule and work it down for ya.” Chairman says “No, that’s fine; you can go now”

Next is the Lawyer, so the Chairman calls him in and says “There’s only one interview question, What’s Two Plus Two?” The Lawyer replies “Well last I checked, majority opinion leaned toward four with two dissenting opinions; but if you need I can research if there’s been any more recent case for ya.” Chairman says “No, that’s fine; you can go now”

Last is the accountant so the Chairman calls him in and says “There’s only one interview question, What’s Two Plus Two?” The Accountant looks him straight in the eyes and replies “Well Sir, What would you LIKE it to BE?”

As my good friend Jeff Huberty said to me today…

“It’s gotta be the snow.”

My original argument still is valid.

What temperature is the Earth supposed to be?

Until you answer that question, the Man Made Global Warming Fanatics need to stand down. PERIOD. That should end the argument. If it does not, then it is political. They want an agenda.

And yes, I tend to be a bit arrogant in type.

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And yes, I tend to be a bit arrogant in type.

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Runs in the Lakeland area.

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So I did a graph of my own using all of the data and added trend lines. When you change the trend lines to Polynominal and change the order value, you get drastically different trends.

So now what does it tell you?

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It tells me you found a new toy in MSExcel.
do you think pug will pay?

Not of you rely on the only graph that you think supports your theory.

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do you think pug will pay?

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I’m wondering the same thing.

Somebody once said that statistics were nothing more than a bunch of numbers looking for an argument.

Man ain’t that the truth. ..

if you were to produce a graph of world wealth, transposed on a climate change graph, an HONEST scientist would argue FOR global warming to prevent a catastrophic depression. if you substitute world knowledge for wealth, shouldn,t we heat ,er up to prevent stupidity?

Reckon this one’s REDLINED