Climate Change Effects on Lake Minnetonka

You be the judge:

Lake Minnetonka Ice Out Records

Minnetonka,27013300
ice out date,source,comments
1855-04-18,MNDNR-SCO,
1855-04-18,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1857-05-05,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1857-05-05,MNDNR-SCO,
1858-03-30,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1858-03-30,MNDNR-SCO,
1859-05-04,MNDNR-SCO,
1859-05-04,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1860-04-04,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1860-04-04,MNDNR-SCO,
1863-04-15,MNDNR-SCO,
1873-04-27,MNDNR-SCO,
1877-04-14,MNDNR-SCO,
1877-04-14,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1878-03-11,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1878-03-11,MNDNR-SCO,
1887-04-14,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1887-04-14,MNDNR-SCO,
1888-04-25,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1888-04-25,MNDNR-SCO,
1889-04-01,MNDNR-SCO,
1889-04-01,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1890-04-16,MNDNR-SCO,
1890-04-16,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1891-04-21,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1891-04-21,MNDNR-SCO,
1892-04-11,MNDNR-SCO,
1892-04-11,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1893-04-28,MNDNR-SCO,
1893-04-28,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1894-04-09,MNDNR-SCO,
1894-04-09,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1895-04-05,MNDNR-SCO,
1895-04-05,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1896-04-05,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1896-04-05,MNDNR-SCO,
1897-04-18,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1897-04-18,MNDNR-SCO,
1898-04-18,MNDNR-SCO,
1898-04-18,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1899-04-24,MNDNR-SCO,
1899-04-24,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1900-04-16,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1900-04-16,MNDNR-SCO,
1901-04-23,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1901-04-23,MNDNR-SCO,
1902-04-01,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1902-04-01,MNDNR-SCO,
1903-04-13,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1903-04-13,MNDNR-SCO,
1904-04-25,MNDNR-SCO,
1904-04-25,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1905-04-02,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1905-04-02,MNDNR-SCO,
1906-04-16,MNDNR-SCO,
1906-04-16,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1907-04-08,MNDNR-SCO,
1907-04-08,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1908-04-12,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1908-04-12,MNDNR-SCO,
1909-04-26,MNDNR-SCO,
1909-04-26,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1910-03-27,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1910-03-27,MNDNR-SCO,
1911-04-01,MNDNR-SCO,
1911-04-01,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1912-04-13,MNDNR-SCO,
1912-04-13,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1913-04-18,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1913-04-18,MNDNR-SCO,
1914-04-17,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1914-04-17,MNDNR-SCO,
1915-04-17,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1915-04-17,MNDNR-SCO,
1916-04-19,MNDNR-SCO,
1916-04-19,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1917-04-18,MNDNR-SCO,
1917-04-18,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1918-04-14,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1918-04-14,MNDNR-SCO,
1919-04-06,MNDNR-SCO,
1919-04-06,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1920-04-17,MNDNR-SCO,
1920-04-17,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1921-04-03,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1921-04-03,MNDNR-SCO,
1922-04-17,MNDNR-SCO,
1922-04-17,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1923-04-23,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1923-04-23,MNDNR-SCO,
1924-04-24,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1924-04-24,MNDNR-SCO,
1925-04-07,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1925-04-07,MNDNR-SCO,
1926-04-18,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1926-04-18,MNDNR-SCO,
1927-04-12,MNDNR-SCO,
1927-04-12,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1928-04-18,MNDNR-SCO,
1928-04-18,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1929-04-07,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1929-04-07,MNDNR-SCO,
1930-04-05,MNDNR-SCO,
1930-04-05,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1931-04-06,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1931-04-06,MNDNR-SCO,
1932-04-14,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1932-04-14,MNDNR-SCO,
1933-04-18,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1933-04-18,MNDNR-SCO,
1934-04-10,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1934-04-10,MNDNR-SCO,
1935-04-07,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1935-04-07,MNDNR-SCO,
1936-04-20,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1936-04-20,MNDNR-SCO,
1937-04-19,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1937-04-19,MNDNR-SCO,
1938-04-09,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1938-04-09,MNDNR-SCO,
1939-04-17,MNDNR-SCO,
1939-04-17,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1940-04-25,MNDNR-SCO,
1940-04-25,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1941-04-14,MNDNR-SCO,
1941-04-14,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1942-04-04,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1942-04-04,MNDNR-SCO,
1943-04-12,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1943-04-12,MNDNR-SCO,
1944-04-23,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1944-04-23,MNDNR-SCO,
1945-03-30,MNDNR-SCO,
1945-03-30,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1946-04-02,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1946-04-02,MNDNR-SCO,
1947-04-19,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1947-04-19,MNDNR-SCO,
1948-04-11,MNDNR-SCO,
1948-04-11,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1949-04-13,MNDNR-SCO,
1949-04-13,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1950-05-02,MNDNR-SCO,
1950-05-02,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1951-04-28,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1951-04-28,MNDNR-SCO,
1952-04-22,MNDNR-SCO,
1952-04-22,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1953-04-08,MNDNR-SCO,
1953-04-08,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1954-04-12,MNDNR-SCO,
1954-04-12,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1955-04-12,MNDNR-SCO,
1955-04-12,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1956-04-21,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1956-04-21,MNDNR-SCO,
1957-04-20,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1957-04-20,MNDNR-SCO,
1958-04-11,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1958-04-11,MNDNR-SCO,
1959-04-10,MNDNR-SCO,
1959-04-10,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1960-04-16,MNDNR-SCO,
1960-04-16,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1961-04-14,MNDNR-SCO,
1961-04-14,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1962-04-25,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1962-04-25,MNDNR-SCO,
1963-04-10,MNDNR-SCO,
1963-04-10,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1964-04-13,MNDNR-SCO,
1964-04-13,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1965-05-01,MNDNR-SCO,
1965-05-01,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1966-04-04,MNDNR-SCO,
1966-04-04,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1967-04-09,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1967-04-09,MNDNR-SCO,
1968-04-01,MNDNR-SCO,
1968-04-01,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1969-04-17,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1969-04-17,MNDNR-SCO,
1970-04-19,MNDNR-SCO,
1970-04-19,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1971-04-17,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1971-04-17,MNDNR-SCO,
1972-04-26,MNDNR-SCO,
1972-04-26,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1973-04-04,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1973-04-04,MNDNR-SCO,
1974-04-19,MNDNR-SCO,
1974-04-19,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1975-04-28,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1975-04-28,MNDNR-SCO,
1976-04-03,MNDNR-SCO,
1976-04-03,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1977-04-10,MNDNR-SCO,
1977-04-10,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1978-04-17,MNDNR-SCO,
1978-04-17,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1979-04-23,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1979-04-23,MNDNR-SCO,
1980-04-19,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1980-04-19,MNDNR-SCO,
1981-03-27,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1981-03-27,MNDNR-SCO,
1982-04-19,MNDNR-SCO,
1982-04-19,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1983-04-22,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1983-04-22,MNDNR-SCO,
1984-04-13,MNDNR-SCO,
1984-04-13,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1985-04-13,MNDNR-SCO,
1985-04-13,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1986-04-08,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1986-04-08,MNDNR-SCO,
1987-03-21,MNDNR-SCO,
1987-03-21,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1988-04-07,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Dick Gray
1988-04-07,MNDNR-SCO,
1989-04-17,MNDNR-LAKESDB,1989 date taken from climatology ice-out book summary page at front of book. RJH 10/25/90 – Climatology Ice-Out Book statistics
1989-04-17,MNDNR-SCO,
1990-04-04,MNDNR-LAKESDB,1990 date taken from climatology ice-out book summary page at front of book. RJH 10/25/90 – Climatology Ice-Out Book statistics
1990-04-04,MNDNR-SCO,
1991-04-08,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Climatology Ice-Out Book statistics
1991-04-08,MNDNR-SCO,
1992-04-09,MNDNR-SCO,
1992-04-09,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Climatology Ice-Out Book statistics
1993-04-19,MNDNR-SCO,
1994-04-11,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Climatology Ice-Out Book statistics
1994-04-11,MNDNR-SCO,
1995-04-03,MNDNR-SCO,
1995-04-03,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Climatology Ice-Out Book statistics
1996-04-24,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Climatology Ice-Out Book statistics
1996-04-24,MNDNR-SCO,
1997-04-18,MNDNR-SCO,
1997-04-18,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Climatology Ice-Out Book statistics
1998-04-03,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Climatology Ice-Out Book statistics
1998-04-03,MNDNR-SCO,
1999-04-02,MNDNR-SCO,
1999-04-02,MNDNR-LAKESDB,Climatology Ice-Out Book statistics
1999-04-02,MNPCA,BB: Changed On to Off due to possible entry error
2000-03-18,MNDNR-SCO,
2001-04-19,MNDNR-SCO,
2002-04-16,MNDNR-SCO,
2003-04-12,MNDNR-SCO,
2004-04-05,MNDNR-SCO,
2005-04-09,MNDNR-SCO,
2006-04-09,MNDNR-SCO,
2007-04-03,MNDNR-SCO,
2008-04-23,MNDNR-SCO,
2009-04-13,MNDNR-SCO,
2010-04-02,MNDNR-SCO,
2011-04-14,MNDNR-SCO,Freshwater Foundation 5:14 AM Hennepin County Sheriff 6:00 AM
2012-03-21,MNDNR-SCO,
2013-05-02,MNDNR-SCO,Freshwater Society

I could be mistaken, but I see nothing at all.

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I could be mistaken, but I see nothing at all.

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Huh? From what I am seeing, the ice out dates are change nearly every year. This is all the proof I need that climate change is happening.

Anyone who denies climate change just has to stay outside for 24 hours straight. It is colder at night and warmer during the day….can you honestly deny that?

Hold on…So, you’re saying that since the ice out date isn’t identical every year, that it’s somehow proof of climate change?? Sweet lord I hope I’m just missing your sarcasm.

Scratch that, coffee is still trying to get me started. I see what you did there!

Who is this Dick Gray and how did he live so long?

1855-1988

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Who is this Dick Gray and how did he live so long?

1855-1988

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BK’s favorite adult film star

He drank the water in Minnetonka!
On another note, it’s a pretty awesome chart showing no one direction trend… But I must disagree, it doesn’t Always get cooler at night.

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Who is this Dick Gray and how did he live so long?

1855-1988

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He drank the water in Minnetonka!
On another note, it’s a pretty awesome chart showing no one direction trend… But I must disagree, it doesn’t Always get cooler at night.

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So you’ve run a linear regression on the data? I’ll bet $50 there’s a trend.

I’m not seeing much there either.

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…it’s a pretty awesome chart showing no one direction trend…

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That’s because they conveniently left out pre ice age ice out dates.

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Who is this Dick Gray and how did he live so long?

1855-1988

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It would certainly appear that he was one of those species who BENEFITED from the 19th/20th Century climate cycle

I was trying to figure out when the Pool 2 water temp hit 50 degrees in the fall.

I don’t recall the actual date I came up with but let’s say it was Oct 15th. In looking back at the dates, Oct 15 was never listed. In other words, the water temp never changed to 50 degrees on the average date.

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That’s because they conveniently left out pre ice age ice out dates.

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Come on. No ones going to bite? Throw me a bone here.

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That’s because they conveniently left out pre ice age ice out dates.

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Come on. No ones going to bite? Throw me a bone here.

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crickets

I did a little math because I was curious.

Average ice out by the decade:

1850’s : 4/21
1860’s : 4/9
1870’s : 4/7
1880’s : 4/13
1890’s : 4/15
1900’s : 4/14
1910’s : 4/11
1920’s : 4/14
1930’s : 4/12
1940’s : 4/12
1950’s : 4/14
1960’s : 4/14
1970’s : 4/16
1980’s : 4/10
1990’s : 4/10
2000’s : 4/10
2010’s : 4/9

Glad to see some of you are looking at climate change, there is a free seminar coming up on Wednesday if any would like to attend. Seminar

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I did a little math because I was curious.

Average ice out by the decade:

1850’s : 4/21
1860’s : 4/9
1870’s : 4/7
1880’s : 4/13
1890’s : 4/15
1900’s : 4/14
1910’s : 4/11
1920’s : 4/14
1930’s : 4/12
1940’s : 4/12
1950’s : 4/14
1960’s : 4/14
1970’s : 4/16
1980’s : 4/10
1990’s : 4/10
2000’s : 4/10
2010’s : 4/9

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Hard numbers and facts have no place here!

Seriously, though, nice work!

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He drank the water in Minnetonka!
On another note, it’s a pretty awesome chart showing no one direction trend… But I must disagree, it doesn’t Always get cooler at night.

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So you’ve run a linear regression on the data? I’ll bet $50 there’s a trend.

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I wouldn’t doubt there’s a trend buddy, but from what I could see there isn’t a “one direction trend” as if ice out is consistently getting earlier due to a warming in the climate. The one trend I did see seems to follow the 11 year sun cycle quite well in a matter of generality.

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I did a little math because I was curious.

Average ice out by the decade:

1850’s : 4/21
1860’s : 4/9
1870’s : 4/7
1880’s : 4/13
1890’s : 4/15
1900’s : 4/14
1910’s : 4/11
1920’s : 4/14
1930’s : 4/12
1940’s : 4/12
1950’s : 4/14
1960’s : 4/14
1970’s : 4/16
1980’s : 4/10
1990’s : 4/10
2000’s : 4/10
2010’s : 4/9

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Hard numbers and facts have no place here!

Seriously, though, nice work!

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Take out the highest and lowest one because they could be abnormalities.

After that, everything is within a week. Over the course of 150+ years, that seems pretty consistent to me.

Ice out on Tonka is not the measure of climate change. You measure climate change in many ways, increased summer water temperatures, increased aquatic vegetation growing seasons and hundreds of other measures.Increasing air temperatures are causing water temperatures to rise, which impacts aquatic species as well as human health. Increased water temperature results in decreased dissolved oxygen and greater vulnerability of aquatic organisms to water pollution. Shifts of population of fish species from coldwater to warmwater species are expected to occur.

Increased water temperatures also may contribute to the occurrence of harmful algal blooms, including potentially toxic algae, in lakes and waterways where people swim, fish, or engage in other recreational activities (some of this information is from a 2013 PCA report). If we (including myself) continue to burn fossil fuels, we will influence climate change toward warming.

Runoff is the biggest contributor to algae blooms. If anyone is concerned with algae, I suggest they focus on changing agricultural practices.

If we can’t count ice out dates, then can we not count glaciers and arctic ice?

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Shifts of population of fish species from coldwater to warmwater species are expected to occur.

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This is a great point but I found what could be an exception. Whitefish have recently returned to the fox river in Green Bay. Something they haven’t seen in decades. Cleaner water is believed to be a contributor but it seems that a cold water fish has returned to a historical spawning area.

http://m.jsonline.com/more/news/wisconsin/a-century-later-whitefish-are-turning-up-in-wisconsin-rivers-b99148047z1-233569571.html

Seems for every Ying, there’s a Yang.

The return of Whitefish is good news. The changes from climate will be minuet, it isn’t that climate change isn’t a natural cycle, it is. The question many have is how much are we contributing to it increasing and if there is anything we can do about it. Here is what MN is looking to do. PCA report

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I did a little math because I was curious.

Average ice out by the decade:

1850’s : 4/21
1860’s : 4/9
1870’s : 4/7
1880’s : 4/13
1890’s : 4/15
1900’s : 4/14
1910’s : 4/11
1920’s : 4/14
1930’s : 4/12
1940’s : 4/12
1950’s : 4/14
1960’s : 4/14
1970’s : 4/16
1980’s : 4/10
1990’s : 4/10
2000’s : 4/10
2010’s : 4/9

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Hard numbers and facts have no place here!

Seriously, though, nice work!

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Really? How can you get a decadal average for the 1850s, 1860s, 1870s, and 1880s when you have less half a decade’s worth of data for each of those decades? 1850s, 4 years of data. 1860s, 2 years. 1870s, 3 years. 1880s, 3 years.

Anyone reasonably competent in stats would start from the beginning of the continuous data. If we take your decadal averages starting with decades where we really have a decade’s worth of data (1890-present), there’s appears to be a pretty clear downward trend.

1890’s : 4/15
1900’s : 4/14
1910’s : 4/11
1920’s : 4/14
1930’s : 4/12
1940’s : 4/12
1950’s : 4/14
1960’s : 4/14
1970’s : 4/16
1980’s : 4/10
1990’s : 4/10
2000’s : 4/10
2010’s : 4/9 (incomplete)

But looking at the descriptive data actually tells us nothing. Again, anyone reasonably competent in stats, would run a regression of the continuous time series to identify whether actual trend exists (I’ll wager there is) and whether the trend is significant (perhaps. perhaps not).

But as was pointed out above, even if there were a trend, the ice out dates on a particular lake are not indicative of climate change. Ice out is influenced by many factors not related to temperature (although in a large data set those factors would tend to offset and cancel each other out over time).

Even if ice out were a good proxy for temperature change, one 14,500 acre lake says absolutely nothing about regional let alone hemispheric or global climate change.

I’m just glad that nothing on the chart indicates that we are in for consistent winters like this last one in a trend that will continue to get progressively colder/longer. Not that that isn’t a possibility, but it doesn’t look like the last 150 years of history show us that it is likely to occur.

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Really? How can you get a decadal average for the 1850s, 1860s, 1870s, and 1880s when you have less half a decade’s worth of data for each of those decades? 1850s, 4 years of data. 1860s, 2 years. 1870s, 3 years. 1880s, 3 years.

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Take the amount of data available, add it up and divide it by the number of entries. Pretty simple really.

I don’t discount your point. It’s a great point and I agree. But you should also then take out the earliest and latest date as well to account for anomalies. It’ll look like this:

1890’s : 4/15
1900’s : 4/14
1910’s : 4/11
1920’s : 4/14
1930’s : 4/12
1940’s : 4/12
1950’s : 4/14
1960’s : 4/14
1970’s :
1980’s : 4/10
1990’s : 4/10
2000’s : 4/10
2010’s : (incomplete)

I’m ply posting what I had to work with.