I’m not certain about this but I know in many cases, when an esox fish is up shallow and visible, they’re often warming to help with digestion and are highly unlikely to strike. But in the case of the pike, biologically speaking, they seek out cooler water for 2 reasons. 1) They prefer a water temp that’s around 55*. 2) Wherever there’s a current inlet, there’s the opportunity for food to come through.
My experience has gone both ways. I’ve had them ignore me to red faced frustration. But, I’ve also had times when I can figure out what will trip them. In my successes, I’ve actually found that it’s not the fish I see that gets on the line. It’s the fish nearby that I couldn’t see that got involved.
Variances can include water clarity, cover, wind direction, steepness of the break and how near it is to the fish, current, and of course, presentation.
Prime times are always prime times but you can get those fish to go on those 95 to 100* bluebird sky days. It just takes some “educated guess-timations”.