Economy

How about the possibility that millions of people potentially will be forced to quit their jobs in the next few months so they can stay home to be with their kids who may not be allowed to go to school…?

DeRangedFishinguy wrote:

How about the possibility that millions of people potentially will be forced to quit their jobs in the next few months so they can stay home to be with their kids who may not be allowed to go to school…?

Yup. Sure looks like the big reset to me. Hopefully middle class survives it.

DeRangedFishinguy wrote:

How about the possibility that millions of people potentially will be forced to quit their jobs in the next few months so they can stay home to be with their kids who may not be allowed to go to school…?

Its pretty unreal. Not sure what people are going to do. Or how they expect most of these kids to get an actual education with this bs they are pulling

“Gold is almost at $2,000 oz. That’s something to think about.”

When the economy goes South, or at least there is a lot of uncertainty – is when gold goes up. I’d say with Covid still lurking and a contentious election in the future – it might be a good buy right now..

i have a cousin thats a teacher………she is pretty adamant that kids need to go back to school, in person. she couldnt tell if kids were doing any of the work or even caring and yet wanted a grade.

from what i read and hear the teachers are pretty divided on the issue……….. guess we shall see tomorrow when timmy putin lets us know the grand plan!!!!!!!

disco bobber wrote:

I am wondering if it is time to move the 401k money to a safe space. I don’t know if this country can have a peaceful election season coming up.

Bonds will be paying next to nothing in the coming years and stashing in cash will be a losing proposition when battling inflation. You also have 2 decisions to make, when to pull out when to get back in.

I dabble on my own and have a few buddies who financial plan and basically say this ends in disaster in 99% of situations.

you know the saying in an emergency ‘don’t just stand there do something!”? Jack Bogle founder of the largest mutual fund company in the world and basically invented indexing said “Don’t just do something! Stand there!” see dips as great buying opportunities.

I think we will continue to see a lot of volitility in the economy. There is so much uncertainty anyone conveying certainty is someone probably selling you something.

I believe the next real economic dip we see will be 1Q 2021. I think thousands of companies will see 2020 as a year to harvest tremendous amounts of loss. They’ll get super creative with accounting and shed loss like crazy because its totally justifiable in the “age of covid19!” wipe their balance sheets free and begin afresh.

I think we will also see 20-30% of small business go belly up.

I think it takes at least 2 years to recover from an unemployment wise.

5-6 trillion in quantitative easing (printing money) should not effect inflation or the price of the dollar because the worlds most powerful money systems are doing easing as well. But do expect some level of inflation at a greater level than what we are seeing now.

The stock market recovery is pretty remarkable, but they are bolstered by these gigantic tech companies that represent 25% of the S&P500. They have thrived and will continue to thrive due to being diversified and i believe data farming is teh future of tech and they have that information.

If i gave you 10 different sections of the S&P 500 and told you to pick out the rise/fall of a presidential election result? you wouldn’t be able to find it. The stock market historically doesn’t care much about who is president.

And the last thing I have to say is that Its quite clear that I can follow 100 different financial experts and each one has a different idea of recovery or continued demise.

What I know is that nobody knows anything. I’m 40 and have a 20-25 yr window before retirement. I’m just piling into my investments and staying the course.

I just saw on the news Minneapolis mayor issued a order to close bars back down

https://kstp.com/coronavirus/live-video-minneapolis-mayor-issues-order-closing-bar-areas-dance-floors-at-drinking-dining-establishments/5810334/

You should actually read the article. He is closing the areas where congregation happens like the bar area dance floors and such. Still in door and outdoor seating available. Not closing anything…well not yet anyway.

Ripjiggen wrote:

You should actually read the article. He is closing the areas where congregation happens like the bar area dance floors and such. Still in door and outdoor seating available. Not closing anything…well not yet anyway.

Areas of congregation… wouldnt a bar be considered that sitting next to each other

The actual bar area where you would order a drink from a bar tender. You know where you stand there holding your ten dollar bill out standing nuts to butts to pay for a drink. Most were doing this already. In door seating still available as well as outdoor seating. Just saying he has not closed down bars and restaurants just yet like you stated.

Here
It’s important to note, the order doesn’t force businesses to close but rather just prevents people from gathering at those specific areas within businesses.

The order goes into effect at 5 p.m. on Aug. 1.

In addition to bars and restaurants, it includes taprooms, distilleries and nightclubs. The city said the order will affect about 640 businesses.

Table seating, including high-tops, will be allowed under the regulation as long as patrons follow the existing state guidance limiting it to four people per table or six if they’re from the same household or family.

Ripjiggen wrote:

The actual bar area where you would order a drink from a bar tender. You know where you stand there holding your ten dollar bill out standing nuts to butts to pay for a drink. Most were doing this already. In door seating still available as well as outdoor seating. Just saying he has not closed down bars and restaurants just yet.

yes you are correct, not totally closed yet. I wonder if that is coming soon again shutting them down 100%

If people would just be responsible you wouldn’t need these requirements.
Pretty GD simple.

greig john wrote:

If people would just be responsible you wouldn’t need these requirements.
Pretty GD simple.

Do you blame the handful of bars not adhering to this advice already or the patrons. I work in this industry not directly for a bar but most of the nicer establishments were already doing this. Some were not however. I know when I was 21-25 I wasn’t exactly responsible.

Bass Thumb wrote:

Unless the government raises taxes on large corporations and ultra-wealthy individuals, I don’t see a way out of this mess. If the government needs to spend its way out of a jam, which it’s doing right now, it needs to increase earnings. Pure and simple.

I’ve been working as much OT as I can and hoarding my savings. Some of it’s going into long-term stocks, but I don’t expect a return for quite some time.

This is going to get worse before it gets better. I expect economic fortunes over the winter to be bleak.

I see it a bit differently, the sooner we get everyone back to work, the more revenue that will go into government coffers, taxing the ultra rich isn’t the answer, they are a necessary evil, they are more likely to create jobs, never seen a poor man hire anyone to work yet, there is a need to cut tax loopholes along with welfare scams. everyone is entitled to a hand up, it was never intended to be a way of life. In any case there is no such thing as a quick fix.

Ripjiggen wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>greig john wrote:</div>

If people would just be responsible you wouldn’t need these requirements.
Pretty GD simple.

Do you blame the handful of bars not adhering to this advice already or the patrons. I work in this industry not directly for a bar but most of the nicer establishments were already doing this. Some were not however. I know when I was 21-25 I wasn’t exactly responsible.

Therein lies the problem.

Beast wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Bass Thumb wrote:</div>
Unless the government raises taxes on large corporations and ultra-wealthy individuals, I don’t see a way out of this mess. If the government needs to spend its way out of a jam, which it’s doing right now, it needs to increase earnings. Pure and simple.

I’ve been working as much OT as I can and hoarding my savings. Some of it’s going into long-term stocks, but I don’t expect a return for quite some time.

This is going to get worse before it gets better. I expect economic fortunes over the winter to be bleak.

I see it a bit differently, the sooner we get everyone back to work, the more revenue that will go into government coffers, taxing the ultra rich isn’t the answer, they are a necessary evil, they are more likely to create jobs, never seen a poor man hire anyone to work yet, there is a need to cut tax loopholes along with welfare scams. everyone is entitled to a hand up, it was never intended to be a way of life. In any case there is no such thing as a quick fix.

I have never understood that theory. If we taxed the ultra wealthy (latest proposal is over 10 million I think) would they stop creating jobs? Would they hide money overseas? (they already do). Bezos’ net worth increased by 13 billion dollars the other day. If he got to keep a little less of that would he stop trying to grow Amazon? Average ceo pay has grown by 940% since 1978 while regular workers have gone up by 12% on average. Something has to change because the current path of economics is unsustainable.

Bars in Minneapolis have recently been a source of outbreaks. No wonder they implemented new rules.

So I guess if you build a business into a Mega business you should be penalized for being smart and successful, got it.

Tax churches and reign in Trump’s spending.
Problem solved.

People have this vision of the hard working smart rich guy and that, of course, does exist. However, the majority of the ultra wealthy people in this country make their money from capital gains or inheritance. I personally think the ultra wealthy could pay a little more. Either that or incentivize them them to pay their workers more or give them better healthcare to avoid personal or corporate taxes.

Fish To Escape wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Beast wrote:</div>

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Bass Thumb wrote:</div>
Unless the government raises taxes on large corporations and ultra-wealthy individuals, I don’t see a way out of this mess. If the government needs to spend its way out of a jam, which it’s doing right now, it needs to increase earnings. Pure and simple.

I’ve been working as much OT as I can and hoarding my savings. Some of it’s going into long-term stocks, but I don’t expect a return for quite some time.

This is going to get worse before it gets better. I expect economic fortunes over the winter to be bleak.

I see it a bit differently, the sooner we get everyone back to work, the more revenue that will go into government coffers, taxing the ultra rich isn’t the answer, they are a necessary evil, they are more likely to create jobs, never seen a poor man hire anyone to work yet, there is a need to cut tax loopholes along with welfare scams. everyone is entitled to a hand up, it was never intended to be a way of life. In any case there is no such thing as a quick fix.

I have never understood that theory. If we taxed the ultra wealthy (latest proposal is over 10 million I think) would they stop creating jobs? Would they hide money overseas? (they already do). Bezos’ net worth increased by 13 billion dollars the other day. If he got to keep a little less of that would he stop trying to grow Amazon? Average ceo pay has grown by 940% since 1978 while regular workers have gone up by 12% on average. Something has to change because the current path of economics is unsustainable.
[/quote

This is a fundamentally flawed argument. Individual earners don’t create wealth or jobs. Corporations create wealth and economic opportunity. If you overtax companies they absolutely will stop creating jobs.

Look at how the tax distribution in this country works. The top 10% of earners pay over 70% of taxes. Overtaxing has been proven to have negative economic impact.

The way to stimulate the economy is through job creation as it increases tax base, creates spending, raises consumer confidence, etc.

Taxing Jeff Bezos more only creates a headline. It’s doesn’t help the economy.

Beast wrote:

So I guess if you build a business into a Mega business you should be penalized for being smart and successful, got it.

I think you know how progressive taxes work but, ok, let’s say it’s being penalized for success. If that’s the case why is someone making $50k penalized for doubling their pay to $100k but someone else isn’t penalized for doubling their pay from 1 million to 2 million?

Jon Jordan wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Bass Thumb wrote:</div>
Unless the government raises taxes on large corporations and ultra-wealthy individuals, I don’t see a way out of this mess.

But this has never worked in the past. How could it work now? This is the worse thing the government could do to stimulate an economy. Smart, well to do individuals and corporations will simply take their money elsewhere.

-J.

Never worked before? Are you sure about that? The highest tax bracket in 1960 was 91%. Did all the smart well to do individuals and corporations take their money elsewhere in 1960? Now the highest tax bracket is 37%. Take a look at the history of US debt since Reagan and supply side economics was put in place in the 1980’s. The debt has been rising rapidly since then. With the exception of the Clinton Gingrich budget.

Without jobs you got nothing.

Now……….I have a 1350 pound safe for sale for you boys looking to jam it full of cash & ammo before the world ends.

Contractors in my area have plenty of work currently. But they are really worried about the future because new projects and jobs just aren’t developing like they have always seen. When their current projects are done, they’re not sure what they’re going to do.

My thoughts (which don’t mean a whole lot):

-So many people don’t understand that the “stock market” is not the economy. When people equate these two things it almost assures you they are the furthest thing from an economist. The stock market averages are one tool used to measure economic changes that focuses mainly on large corporations. The stock market has next to nothing to do with local economies across rural and suburban MN. This was shown case and point when unemployment hit a record high and local businesses were legally shut down, stocks were already on the rise.

-I’m not a doom and gloom guy, but this Covid thing isn’t behind us. It’s a long term play with a virus that is changing. A vaccine could be effective one season and not months later. The stimulus talks and whatnot will run dry long before Covid is “gone”.

-Whoever wins this next election is screwed. With no more stimulus packages and a plateauing of an economic recovery on the horizon, someone is going to get blamed when everything can’t be “fixed” by next Spring as so many assume will happen.

-Our dependency on China and other countries will not go away regardless of the talking points from politicians. We simply cannot afford to NOT outsource certain things. Globalization is going nowhere, no matter how far one burries their head in the sand.

-My wife and I have a lot of discussions about what-ifs related to our careers and finances. We both got busier since Covid began, but you can never have too many financial safety nets.

-Banks and financial institutions are walking a fine line with another meltdown. Lower interest rates from may lower monthly payments, but they don’t change a person’s financial habits. I firmly believe some people will spend what they have until it is gone and then some, no matter if it’s on a house, boat, drugs, trips, etc.

Never worked before? Are you sure about that? The highest tax bracket in 1960 was 91%. Did all the smart well to do individuals and corporations take their money elsewhere in 1960? Now the highest tax bracket is 37%. Take a look at the history of US debt since Reagan and supply side economics was put in place in the 1980’s. The debt has been rising rapidly since then. With the exception of the Clinton Gingrich budget.
[/quote]

But can you really compare 1960s with the current economy (pre covid)? Back then we were more of a manufacturing based economy, now we are more of a service based economy. Totally different animals. We also used american made parts and materials then. We may build stuff here now, but the majority is done with parts and material from outside the USA and then we send the product to them to be repurchased here. Which helps those foreiegn economies far more than our own.

When you get right down to it, Have any of us seen a huge change in you way of life no matter who running the big show?
National disasters and the parasites on the tax system has more effect on the economy than anything.
My main concern when voting is which Candidate will follow and enforce our constitutions.

Beast wrote:

, Have any of us seen a huge change in you way of life no matter who running the big show?

Obama really screwed our healthcare. Big one for us as a family cost.