Economy

I’d like some opinions on our future economy. This just doesn’t seem sustainable the way we are rolling right now. Still not much traffic on the roads, many entertainment venues are limited, list goes on and on. I’m concerned, but I tend to overthink things at times.

Things just fine? Will get back to rolling along with out Uncle Sam helping? Economy can handle a year or two of covid?

Personally I’m trying to save up to get thru 5 months of deathly slow work during the winter. Maybe overreacting but the dial may get turned back and fearful of results.

Everything is peaches and freakn cream

Many analysts say the stock markets are not indicative of the state of the economy right now. I’m under the impression that there will be some sort of fallout from reduced consumption resulting in reduced production (I.e. jobs), though my view is somewhat anecdotal.

I’m in construction. I have lots of work lined up, but through the rumor mills, the inventory of building materials is dwindling. With no changes to current conditions, there’s smoke on the horizon.

I’m hoarding all my change….

Pailofperch wrote:

I’m in construction. I have lots of work lined up, but through the rumor mills, the inventory of building materials is dwindling. With no changes to current conditions, there’s smoke on the horizon.

I’m hoarding all my change….

its not rumors……..i stopped at 4 lumber yards looking for 5 8ft deck board before i found them………..and they all said thye dont know when they’ll get the next shipment!!!!!!!!!

and this was a month ago!!!!

The national unemployment rate is about 11%. I do believe that some of those 11% are abusing the weaker unemployment rules at this time because of the added weekly $600, but that is about to expire and probably isn’t going to be replaced with the same amount. The side effect is that some of those people will now go back to work and the rate should drop.

Supply chain issues are all over. The lack of certain fishing items is a good example.

Bleak. The economic tsunami created from the last 5 months has yet to reach us and we are still partially closed. Most will have to get used to a different way of life.

Q1 after the election there will be some reckoning no matter whose in office… especially if there’s Covid-20.

Some things are getting harder and harder for find. There may be work that you can do but without materials no work can be done.

The last place I would want to be is in the president’s chair regardless of who wins. If Trumpet gets re-elected he’ll just be swimming in the same political cesspool that existed before the election. If Biden wins he’ll inherit one huge “F’n mess. I’d sure like to see some sensible, hard working, blue collar workers elected in the Senate and House and bounce those long haul hard party liners out on their ears. I’d like to see the same right here in Minnesota.

I have been hearing the dollar is going to fall pretty dramatically soon. The FED just keeps printing away…

Well, I’ll tell ya.
If you talk any of the places that sell anything to do with the outdoors, boats, campers, wheelers, SxS’s, bikes, canoes, you name it…they can’t keep em on the lot. Private sales are the same.
I put a fairly expensive golf cart on CL and it sold in 2 days.
The car lots look empty but maybe cuz they can’t get new ones shipped in?
It’s actually strange if you ask me. Tons of people on unemployment and sales are off the charts.
The future? Dunno…lots of used stuff for sale if the economy really tanks?

We’re in virtually uncharted territory now because millions of people are living a totally different lifestyle now than they were just 6 months ago.

Yes, there is a high unemployment rate, but do some independent on WHO are these unemployed and why are they unemployed. Again, totally different reasons than in in a traditional recession.

Mrs Grouse works for a a business planning software company and she speaks with a lot of businesses around the world. A lot of the supply chain problems are due to sudden huge demand spikes. Again, not your typical situation. Look at the situation with lumber. You have millions of people sitting at home looking at that rotted out deck that needed replacement 5 years ago. So as long as we’re stuck at home…

A customer of mine does deck and patio construction. He was booking deck jobs for 2021 already back in June. He said the crazy thing is people were willing to wait that long because they had already talked to other companies that said sorry we’re too busy call us next year maybe. I give him a lot of credit for reading the situation and being willing to do something different. It seems like customers realize if they want work done they better get on the list even if it’s next year.

I think what is going to happen is slowly the supply will come back and demand will return to normal levels. People will either get jobs done or lose their enthusiasm for them and decide not to do them. I don’t think a crash is coming so much as just a return to normal which will probably feel like a downturn because it’s been so busy.

Grouse

TANSTAAFL
There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch.
The CARES act and what ever is the next action taken will eventually be reflected in our dollars value. Now how the Euro / Yen / other currency’s are valued vs dollars is also a huge question.
Hang on people. This whole Covid thing is not going away for a long time. IMHO.

haleysgold wrote:

Well, I’ll tell ya.
If you talk any of the places that sell anything to do with the outdoors, boats, campers, wheelers, SxS’s, bikes, canoes, you name it…they can’t keep em on the lot. Private sales are the same.
I put a fairly expensive golf cart on CL and it sold in 2 days.
The car lots look empty but maybe cuz they can’t get new ones shipped in?
It’s actually strange if you ask me. Tons of people on unemployment and sales are off the charts.
The future? Dunno…lots of used stuff for sale if the economy really tanks?

Polaris is up about $55 per share since April.

Business will never be run the same again. Things are a mess for sure and some professions will become obsolete but new opportunities will emerge.

The eye opener for 2020 is how much influence and economic effect China has on supplies.
For the past several Decades since Ticky Dick shook hands with chairman Mao, we have handed our manufacturing Economy over to them.

Gold is almost at $2,000 oz. That’s something to think about.
And depending on outcome of the election taxes could go up dramatically.

The rot lies beneath and will eventually surface… mortgage delinquencies, rent delinquencies, commercial real estate collapsing, auto loan delinquencies, banks cancelling and / or slashing credit card limits, student loan delinquencies, corporate debt defaults, corporate bankruptcies. It’s all happening now. An economy propped up by debt and credit eventually blows up.

Unless the government raises taxes on large corporations and ultra-wealthy individuals, I don’t see a way out of this mess. If the government needs to spend its way out of a jam, which it’s doing right now, it needs to increase earnings. Pure and simple.

I’ve been working as much OT as I can and hoarding my savings. Some of it’s going into long-term stocks, but I don’t expect a return for quite some time.

This is going to get worse before it gets better. I expect economic fortunes over the winter to be bleak.

The media is talking 11 million rent evictions coming up. That is residential. Tent city coming—if you can find a tent!!
Also with companies finding out that working from home is doable how much commercial real estate is going to sit empty?

mxskeeter wrote:

Also with companies finding out that working from home is doable how much commercial real estate is going to sit empty?

Not enough. Too many in management are looking bad when they can’t wander around the office pretending to be useful.

We’ve had job postings for the past two months. Got a 100 or so apps. Managers have called every last one of them back and never get an answer or call back. I believe we have hired 1 or 2 of 15 open positions. Granted these are all entry level positions, but if you’re getting more money for sitting on your a$$ than actually working do you think people will want to work? Let’s see what happens with this new “stimulus plan” they have in the works.

Work for a manufacturing corporation with facilities world wide. Travel has ceased since March. You can’t believe the number of upper management personnel who before COVID would travel Monday, work at facility Tues. to Thursday and return home on Friday. These individuals are now concerned their jobs will be eliminated and we are talking large salaries. Basically they currently have at least 25% more time actually working due to no travel. This plus the reduction in air fares, meals, car rentals, hotel rooms is huge. I foresee a large reduction in these positions and they know it as they are scrambling to feel needed at work. When you hear, We are Corporate and we are here to help or We are putting together a multiple dimensional team to look at this situation you might as well bend over… Should be an interesting remainder of 2020…

I am wondering if it is time to move the 401k money to a safe space. I don’t know if this country can have a peaceful election season coming up.

Reef W wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mxskeeter wrote:</div>
Also with companies finding out that working from home is doable how much commercial real estate is going to sit empty?

Not enough. Too many in management are looking bad when they can’t wander around the office pretending to be useful.

No sh!t. Our VP was rumored to be livid when he showed up to the office and saw only a handful of people. The great irony is that clearly that’s the first time he had been in the office in quite a while.

And then you have managers talking out of both sides of their mouth saying we are interested in ensuring your home life is good and you have time to tend to your kids but you better be on the office 50 hours a week or you are put on the naughty list.

Bass Thumb wrote:

I’ve been working as much OT as I can and hoarding my savings. Some of it’s going into long-term stocks, but I don’t expect a return for quite some time.

This is smart, I always save for a rainy day too. If you don’t need the reserve funds, great, its just extra money at the end.

Unfortunately, a lot of Americans live from paycheck to paycheck. That is the society we live in.

Bass Thumb wrote:

Unless the government raises taxes on large corporations and ultra-wealthy individuals, I don’t see a way out of this mess.

But this has never worked in the past. How could it work now? This is the worse thing the government could do to stimulate an economy. Smart, well to do individuals and corporations will simply take their money elsewhere.

-J.

Deuces wrote:

I’d like some opinions on our future economy. This just doesn’t seem sustainable the way we are rolling right now. Still not much traffic on the roads, many entertainment venues are limited, list goes on and on. I’m concerned, but I tend to overthink things at times.

When I owned my business I served on the board of our Nationally based (Canada and North America) trade association for 8 years. Every fall meeting we had a speaker from a company called ITR Economics, a nonpartisan economic forecasting firm which we hired to give high level assistance to smaller companies and claim that their predictions are like 94% accurate for the 12 month period. They are very good at forecasting business trends and will never forget a presentation in 2003 where the guy advised that if you are planning on selling your business, do it before 2007 because by 2008 it will be too late. Of course hindsight is 20/20 yet during the last 5 years they have been predicting that we will experience a depression, similar to the one in 1929, in 2030. Whether you believe it or not, it’s still and interesting prediction and they have been sticking to their guns on this one. They remain bullish on the current economy. Here is a link to the article in their blog, https://blog.itreconomics.com/blog/faq-future-great-depression I recommend it and their other topics if for nothing else a source of information.

BCNeal wrote:

Gold is almost at $2,000 oz. That’s something to think about.
And depending on outcome of the election taxes could go up dramatically.

I think you meant to say no matter the outcome of the election taxes will go up dramatically- for the middle class anyway. We are who both sides take their pet project money from.

David Anderson wrote:

I recommend it and their other topics if for nothing else a source of information

This doesn’t ease any fears lol.

Assuming this was calculated pre covid, how much would this current situation push that timeline up?

2022? 🤯