Deer Numbers

I guess everyone around me was having just as bad as luck. Now I’m curious as to why our area was hunters choice instead of lotto. Our area last year took around 1600 total deer and thus far we are around 1000. And last year we also struggled…looking back in 2017, the area took 2600. That’s a swing and a half (150%) and it’s been hunters choice all those year. I love working hard for my deer but the last two seasons were hardly tolerable sitting for days without seeing deer. The youth hunter in the group saw nothing during his hunt and I doubt he’ll be back next year. My longest sit was 3.5 days without seeing a deer. I scouted 48hrs after a fresh snow fall, covering 2 miles on an ATV trail and two clear cuts seeing ONE set of tracks. Ouch!

This is all just a vent but looking at historic numbers, I’m really curious when the deciders decide to go lotto or bucks only vs managed or hunters choice…If going from 2600 harvested deer to 1000 doesn’t change, I’m not sure what would (I know theirs a difference in harvested vs what’s out their but area hunters hasn’t really dropped in our area over the past few years. I’ll be curious what the local CO says about our deer numbers…

Bob, to my knowledge, the DNR does not use last year’s finalized harvest numbers to make their regulations the following year. I’m not sure why, but they don’t (seems stupid). Also, the fact that there is now a statewide 4 day youth gun hunt just weeks before the regular season could definitely be playing a role. Deer (especially bucks) know that something is up. An uptick in activity sends a message to them, especially when the increased sound of gun fire starts going off in the neighborhood.

gimruis wrote:

Bob, to my knowledge, the DNR does not use last year’s finalized harvest numbers to make their regulations the following year. I’m not sure why, but they don’t (seems stupid). Also, the fact that there is now a statewide 4 day youth gun hunt just weeks before the regular season could definitely be playing a role. Deer (especially bucks) know that something is up. An uptick in activity sends a message to them, especially when the increased sound of gun fire starts going off in the neighborhood.

interesting about last years harvest info…

regarding the 4 day youth hunt, I agree it can spook deer into hiding but honestly, the numbers of youth hunters around us basic nothing…it’s probably adding like 1-2 people in our area and you wouldn’t know if they were grouse hunting or deer hunting.

What area/zone are you? Often success is tied very closely to the corn harvest, if you don’t get one opening morning they seem to hide in the corn until it comes down, and due to the wet year we had there was still a lot of corn up in the areas I hunt. There’s still a ton of deer in these area’s, but we didn’t see many the first weekend, and next to none the 2nd in two different areas of the state.

We hunt zone 156 and opportunities were next to nothing the first 10 days I bow hunted. Activity picked up once the weather cooled but the greater neighborhood had quite a bit of deer activity the entire time so I don’t think the overall numbers were down. I did see more wolf activity this year (the most since 2014) but that also seems to vary from year to year.

Our immediate area has gone thru a fair amount of flux the past 6 years. Logging activity and more agricultural land use than I have ever seen in my life. We always have the roaming wolves to factor as well. The trail cameras show they are there but it seems the land use patterns of the deer have been hard to predict. I would see activity on certain trail cameras for 3-4 days in a row and then nothing for 6 days. I had one camera that had no deer pics for two weeks, followed by steady activity at the next card pull.

I have noticed, since the 2013/2014 winters the deer hunting has been more variable than prior to that time. We also had record deer populations prior to those winters so it may have been the best of the best of the best.

I hunt 157 and have for close to 20 years. I have yet to hear any good deer hunting reports from anyone I know. I saw all my deer opening day and after that it’s been lousy.

156 has been pretty hit or miss for our group. Opening weekend our group shot 2 8’s and a basket 5. I’m the only one with a tag left, and hunting this past weekend only saw one doe, along with a half dozen sets of fresh wolf tracks, which explains the downturn in deer activity. That first weekend all three bucks were shot chasing does, and we actually had does moving quite a bit. This past weekend was rough. I believe this is the second year our zone has been hunter’s choice after roughly 5 or so years of bucks only, and honestly I wouldn’t mind if we went back to bucks only for a few more years (with a doe lottery). I don’t think the population is high enough yet to allow for open harvesting of does.

gimruis wrote:

Bob, to my knowledge, the DNR does not use last year’s finalized harvest numbers to make their regulations the following year. I’m not sure why, but they don’t (seems stupid).

I have to ask what is your source for this info? I have long seen in print and on the web that the DNR used a LOT of data sources to set harvest rules and this is the reason why we have to register deer in MN. I’ve seen deer harvest, hunter numbers and demographic data, hours in the field, harvest stats, and even car/deer collision numbers all stated as part of the data the DNR used.

Not trying to be combative, just wondering where you heard that they stopped using harvest data and why?

I was up at my property during the youth season and never heard a single shot during the youth season in 2 days. Obviously, if your neighbor has 6 kids hunting the property next door, it could have an impact, but overall I seriously doubt it has any impact overall.

I’m in 159 and it was back to the war zone days this year. Shots everywhere just like the peak years. I haven’t heard this much shooting in years on opening day. My guess is that 159 will see an overall increase over last year’s harvest.

We harvested 2 bucks, but all hunters on my property could have taken does at any time from any stand. Nobody sat even 1 session without seeing a deer. IMO we probably would benefit from taking some does as I believe numbers are getting unsustainable in my area.

As far as deer numbers on cam and from observation, I saw more deer this year than at any time in the last 7-8 years going back before the crash Tegg mentions of 2013/14. My rough count of deer I see regularly on cameras is up between 5 and 10 deer over last year and I had 2 sets twin fawns (that I know of) this year which was a record for my property.

Weather is a major factor in hunter participation as well. I could see and hear that when it started getting colder on Sunday of the opening weekend, camps emptied out fast starting at noon. Sunday the afternoon sit saw total silence as you could tell the wind and falling temps drove a LOT of hunters into quitting early.

What IS down in my area is clearly overall numbers of hunters in the stand. License sales, IMO, don’t tell the real story as I believe there are a LOT of hunters who still buy a license, but time in stand is only a FRACTION of what it used to be back in the early 2000s.

The 3 properties that adjoin me used to have 12-16 hunters between them. I visited them this past weekend and 1 of them had 2 guys hunting, the other had 2 guys and 2 kids. The third property appears not to have been hunted in at least the last 2 seasons. I went in their driveway and it was overgrown and the stands that are closest to my line are clearly derelict and in need of repair before use. So lots of hunters may still be buying licenses, but they are not in the stand the number of hours they used to be or they are not hunting as hard as they used to.

Grouse

TheFamousGrouse wrote:

Not trying to be combative, just wondering where you heard that they stopped using harvest data and why?

All good points Grouse. I’m not saying they don’t use the harvest to set future regulations. I’m saying that they don’t use the harvest numbers directly from the previous season to set the regulations for the following season. They set long-term goals, not annual goals. They currently have a plan for a deer management timeline that consists of 2019 – 2028. I remember reading several years back that they actually don’t have the official harvest numbers from the previous season when they finalize the following year’s regulations too.

I think bigwerm brought up a valid point on the corn harvest. One of the areas I hunt in is still significantly behind on harvest. Lotta variables can go into why it may be poor or better hunting during the season. I only brought up what I could think of.

Neighbor put in a food plot?

I hunt in zone 155 which is managed zone this year. It usually is either lottery or bucks only. I thought it was strange that they allowed 2 deer in our area after last year’s hard winter. I wondered if it didn’t have more to do with the neighbouring zone being an intensive harvest CWD zone.
We are seeing less deer than last year and that’s been the common theme among other parties in our area that we communicate with. Very little wolf sign compared to years past as well.

Mike W wrote:

Neighbor put in a food plot?

Funny you mention that. Our neighbors put in multiple plots on their 400 acres this year. So far that party of 12 has 1 deer among them. The deer are using their plots some, but totally at night. They are a little disappointed to say the least.

The 2 zones I hunt are up 26% and 44% from last year’s total harvest and we still have muzzleloader and the rest of archery season yet. I’ve been seeing more deer this year than the past few years but hopefully the higher harvest this season doesn’t mean slim pickings next year. Time will tell.

Edit – looked at the wrong chart for previous years harvest. Looks like both zones are right about last years total harvest so we will only see a slight uptick after muzzy and remainder of bow season. But I have been seeing alot more deer than previous years.

Mike W wrote:

Neighbor put in a food plot?

I hunt public northwoods.

Like stated, it’s down throughout the whole area. I feel I get a pretty good handle on deer numbers (subjectively) as I’m out on my stand typically for 9 straight days (first full week every year).

Zone 157 – Opening morning I had a doe & fawn come by hauling ass, 10 minutes later a timber wolf trotted through 40 yards from me. Saw another doe and a spike buck sniffing behind her later that morning. I Shot an 8 point Wednesday morning, didn’t see another deer the rest of the week… Deer numbers are down – I assume all those years of 5 additional bonus tags + wolves aren’t helping any…

ClownColor wrote:

I hunt public northwoods.

Like stated, it’s down throughout the whole area. I feel I get a pretty good handle on deer numbers (subjectively) as I’m out on my stand typically for 9 straight days (first full week every year).

What permit area, exactly?

eyefishwalleye wrote:

I assume all those years of 5 additional bonus tags + wolves aren’t helping any…

Winters are the biggest factor by far. 2013 and 2014 winters cut out deer numbers in 159 by at least half. It wasn’t hard to see what had been done, there were dead deer laying in fields. Even if you could control all other mortality factors, I doubt that would make any difference to overall numbers compared to the impact of one bad winter.

I’m not going to repeat 2013 and 2014. As soon as we are done hunting, I bring in the supplemental feed supply and the feeders. I don’t care if this has no overall impact, I’m not going to let deer in my immediate area die of starvation when there’s something I can do about it.

A 50 gallon drum of corn has enough calories to keep 10 deer alive for a month. They’re not going to get fat, but they won’t die of starvation either.

Grouse

Grouse, no doubt winters can be tough on them. Prior to feeding ban we fed them. The neighbor who lives there year round fed them all winter, every winter. He went from 50+ deer at his feeders to 11 in one year. He believes it is wolves. We found a fresh wolf kill on our land earlier this summer – only one leg left by the blood pool. According to the ol’ interweb, one wolf will kill 20 deer a year.

I realize deer numbers are going to go up and down and agree winters can be brutal. Last winter was horrible for deers especially in wolf areas.

I was more concerned with how they determine what tag is allowed? I feel it should have been a lotto this year considering the harsh winter and previous years harvest levels.

ClownColor wrote:

I realize deer numbers are going to go up and down and agree winters can be brutal. Last winter was horrible for deers especially in wolf areas.

I was more concerned with how they determine what tag is allowed? I feel it should have been a lotto this year considering the harsh winter and previous years harvest levels.

Interesting about winter severity. I’ve attached the MN DNR WSI for both 2014 & 2019. Same calculation methodology.

Attachments:

1. 

   mn-wsi-2019.pdf
   

2. 

   mn-wsi-2014.pdf