I would think for this situation I would go away from hollow points and take a page out of the African hunting book that prefers round nose “solids” that do not expand for dangerous game. The reason is that you’re not going to knock a buffalo or an elephant off his feet with anything, no matter how big of a cannon you shoot. The key is a long wound channel that causes massive blood loss. Essentially the same principle as archery broadheads.
I’d use an FMJ round or flat nose driven as fast as you can get it.
A HP is great for thin skin game like, say, an armed robber. The immediate expansion is going to cause massive shock and damage because it will penetrate enough regardless. Most 40 SW loads are tuned to defense against 2 legged predators.
A bear is a totally differnt story. Heavy hide, thick muscle and bone, etc.
Since we’re only talking about a velocity of just over 1000 FPS, I would want as much penetration as I can get. Every inch that bullet goes in tears up more tissue, potentially breaks more bone, and causes more bleeding. It’s the tissue damage and blood loss that you want. You’re not going to impress a bear with the shock of a HP, Thats just like hitting an oncoming freight train with a claw hammer.
Grouse