Damn Weather Terrorist

Yet again – Another Big build up and then – OH the model changed. A few days ago they were forecasting 12-15″ of snow for my area. Now its 4-6. Schools closed all day or out at 12.00 all over the area. Don’t get me wrong, I’m fine with a lot less than was forecasted. I’d be just fine with NONE. Was just getting where we could start driving out on the local lakes – We sure don’t need a big pile of snow dumped on them now. If they are correct on the forecasted winds ( 30-40 ) then its still going to be a mess tonight and tomorrow. It looks like it will be a good weekend to hunker down and watch some TV ( In-between snowblowing )

The forecast I was watching hasn’t changed for our area all week, still forecasting 4-6 for us.

What’s your point??? They didn’t accurately predict the exact amount of snowfall?

I think any respectable meteorologist holds off on amount predictions till a day or two ahead of time. I know Fox 9 mentioned a significant storm on the horizon, but I didn’t see them actually mention amounts till yesterday.

I was watching the new last night and I think it was WCCO who showed 5 or 6 different weather model predictions. They varied from about 5” to about 12”. This is the info they are fed so it’s up to them to pick the one they like.

I’ve been watching the weather models the past few days myself. It’s kind of cool to see the trends and differences from model to model. http://www.pivotalweather.com

lindyrig79 wrote:

What’s your point??? They didn’t accurately predict the exact amount of snowfall?

Exact amount – By the time this one is over they are likely to be off between 8-10″ in my area

My point is they get on the news each night and go on and on about how big of a storm its going to be ( Biggest snow storm of this winter ) Schools all over the area close or let out early based on the forecast they are giving and here it is at 11:30 ( Time that schools that didn’t close all day are closing early ) and we have NADA. I’d be fine if they would say ” Possible snow on the way” and leave it at that until they have a more reliable idea of the amounts of snow. It just seems to me like they like to over hype things for many days in advance only to be way off on their projected amounts and then simply say ” oh our models changed ”

Hey if I’m the only one this bothers – Then I guess its only me.

It’s also up to you which sources you listen to.

I take the predictions with a grain of salt until one or two days prior to the event.

fishthumper wrote:

My point is they get on the news each night and go on and on about how big of a storm its going to be ( Biggest snow storm of this winter )

You aren’t alone thump.

The last three days (morning, noon and night) all the tv shows is it’s going to be “the big one”. The State of MN workers worked all night to make sure the trucks are ready… wait this is MN right?

>“We could POSSIBLY see some NEAR blizzard conditions in Western MN”< well there’s something…maybe.

One bright spot is that all this talk made the FW get some groceries…finally.

I will qualify this post by saying I’ve been stuck in front of a tv for the last three days and I’m not at my camper. On a good day that = cantankerous attitude.

I live North of Sartell and the sources I trust and have found to be most accurate have not wavered on the amounts predicted for this storm.
Its weather, yeah, they are rarely 100% accurate because it is nearly impossible with all the potential variables at play.

Deuces wrote:

Love it !!!

CaptainMusky wrote:

I live North of Sartell and the sources I trust and have found to be most accurate have not wavered on the amounts predicted for this storm.
Its weather, yeah, they are rarely 100% accurate because it is nearly impossible with all the potential variables at play.

Well your near me then. So what is the source you trust? What were the amounts they were predicting? We will see how accurate they end up being. I tend to use mostly the weather channel and weather scout when looking at the forecast. They were both always predicting far less snow than any of the evening news stations I have watch the last 3-4 days. Thus my original point

West of the metro now.

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On Facebook I trust “MN Weather” and “Central MN WX” (or something similar). Central MN WX actually lives in Sartell. I dont know either of these people and I know for sure MN Weather is NOT even a meteorologist (hes a photographer) but both of these I have found to be VERY accurate.
I also go to JohnDee.com. He is a meteorologist but lives in the UP. His forecasts over the years that I have followed him have been extremely accurate.

Regarding amounts…The two FB accounts I follow have been saying from 8 to 12 potentially higher. JohnDee updated his forecast this morning and it appears STC area is on the edge of the 12″+.
I am not sure if we will get that much but there some very heavy bands of snow headed our way and they are rotating in a fashion that you basically get hit by them twice.

You also have to watch the timeframe for the snow totals. Things I have noticed for Weather Channel and even Accuweather they will say a specific amount, but that is during the day, then there is overnight snow versus predicting storm totals. JohnDee does his by forecasting totals by 7 am the each day with the graphic he does, then supports with text.

1:20 and nothing in Princeton yet.

Plow is on the truck so we get what we get.

Dutchboy wrote:

1:20 and nothing in Princeton yet.

Plow is on the truck so we get what we get.

I work in St Cloud and its snowing pretty hard here. Has been snowing for about an hour or close to it. The weather guessers last night said it would start in STC at noon. They were off by 20 minutes. Actually the radar showed it should have been snowing earlier but must have been evaporating.

CaptainMusky wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Dutchboy wrote:</div>
1:20 and nothing in Princeton yet.

Plow is on the truck so we get what we get.

I work in St Cloud and its snowing pretty hard here. Has been snowing for about an hour or close to it. The weather guessers last night said it would start in STC at noon. They were off by 20 minutes. Actually the radar showed it should have been snowing earlier but must have been evaporating.

We live close and work close. Working right now in Saint Cloud and am heading home to Sartell in a few hours.

Nothing yet in New Brighton

Been coming down pretty good for a bit here in Roch.

Light snow started here in Roch about 20 minutes ago. The snow blower is gassed up and plenty to re-fill it if needed, so it’ll be what it’ll be. Its 18 degrees and not supposed to go any higher so the snow will be relatively light, not full of water. 4″ to 6″ predicted for here, unless the weather monkeys decided to mess with that.

TV stations exist to make money. Bad weather = higher viewership. It’s not a complex equation.

Fool me once, shame on the weatherman. Fool me repeatedly, year after year. . .

I’d hate to see your complaints if they forecasted 4 inches and mother nature had the audacity to drop 10 on your driveway.

Started about 2 here in Princeton.

I left ramsey at 1;20. by the time I got to Monticello it was snowing. by the time I got to clearwater the snow was blowing all over the road and starting to accumulate. at home now and its windy and snowing pretty good, I bet we already have a good inch.

the snowblower is all gassed up ready to go, plenty of food, plenty of beer, plenty of rocket fuel, plenty of mix for said rocket fuel, and lastly plenty of toilet paper……..let’er buck. happy hour starts in a bit!!!!

We’re at about 3″ here already but then snow is super light. When this wind shifts things are going to get dicey in a hurry.

fishthumper wrote:

Yet again – Another Big build up and then – OH the model changed. A few days ago they were forecasting 12-15″ of snow for my area. Now its 4-6. Schools closed all day or out at 12.00 all over the area. Don’t get me wrong, I’m fine with a lot less than was forecasted. I’d be just fine with NONE. Was just getting where we could start driving out on the local lakes – We sure don’t need a big pile of snow dumped on them now. If they are correct on the forecasted winds ( 30-40 ) then its still going to be a mess tonight and tomorrow. It looks like it will be a good weekend to hunker down and watch some TV ( In-between snowblowing )

Dang. They about nailed it here. Said snow would fall around 1pm…flakes started around 1:40…damn terrorist. And by the looks of it so far, amounts might be pretty close as well.

Come on now! We say we don’t want it when we get teased but we get what we want when we get it…. ….

“They are what we thought they were.”

Strange, haven’t seen a single snow flake here.

Over yonder here in Wisconsin they predicted snow to start around 12-1 pm well finally started around 5:30 maybe have a half inch at 8 pm. They started at 6-12 inches now down to 4-6. Was much better forecasting when they did not have all this computer modeling, but yet they can predict 10 years or more down the road.